Senate

PA Senate Primary:  Obviously the big news is the polling coming out of Pennsylvania.   Both the Morning Call tracking poll and the Rasmussen polling have Sestak leading Specter by five points.  Obviously, this is a precarious position for an incumbent to be in a week before an election.  The chart over at the RCP Average page tells the story.  The issue isn't so much Specter falling as it is undecideds breaking against the incumbent.  Unless these polls turn around dramatically in the next few days, you have to be pretty pessimistic about Specter's chances.  This is good news for the Democrats, since Sestak polls better against Republican Pat Toomey than does Specter.

Governor

Florida Governor:  Attorney General Bill McCollum sports a 7.8% lead over Alex Sink in the RCP Average, and leads by nine, according to Mason Dixon.  Sink has led in exactly one poll this cycle, so you have to consider McCollum the favorite, though not prohibitively so.  This assumes, of course, that McCollum doesn't get upended in the September primary by his two unknown GOP opponents.

Maryland: The WaPo poll shows Governor Martin O'Malley below 50%, barely, against the man he beat in 2006, Bob Ehrlich.  Of course, that isn't the kiss of death that it is for most incumbents, since Ehrlich is a well-known quantity as well.    Among those most likely to vote, however, the race is a tie, which should be terrifying for the O'Malley camp.  Keep an eye on this one.

PA Governor Primary:  The polling also shows Allegheny County executive Dan Onorato leading the Democratic primary by an increasingly large margin.  This is good news for the Democrats.  The Pittsburgh area has been trending away from them, keeping the state in play.  Having a gubernatorial candidate who is known in that area increases their chances in the fall pretty substantially over a Philly-based candidate.

House

Generic: Rasmsusen has the Republicans up by six, while Gallup has the parties tied among registered voters.  Republicans lead by .5 in the RCP Average.

HI-01:  With the DCCC's announcement that it is pulling out of HI-01, that race is effectively over.  A recent poll by Merriman River Group found that Djou was leading 40% to 25% for his two Democratic opponents.  But among those who had already voted -- the mail-in race was half over -- Djou received 45% of the vote.  If Djou ends up at or above 50%, it will be a major blow to the Democrats.

TX-17:  The Rothenberg Political Report obtained a poll from Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards' opponent showing him up a dozen points.  Edwards isn't planning on answering the poll, which isn't a good sign for him.   Edwards is well-liked by the district, but it just doesn't seem to want to send a Democrat to Congress.  Obviously the race will turn on whether Edwards is able to localize this race, or whether he gets caught up in the national wave.

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