Exactly when the Latino giant will make landfall in Texas politics remains a guessing game. Texas watchers  agree it will happen this decade and in a big way. The state's red-to-purple politics are destined to turn decidedly bluer.

Now a wild card has been thrown on the table — Arizona's strict new immigration law. Will it spur a surge of Hispanic voters to the polls this Nov. 2?

If that happens, the consequences for national politics could be major.

Texas is expected to gain three or four U.S. House seats following completion of the 2010 Census. The governor and state legislature influence the drawing of congressional districts, which in Texas is never a non-partisan affair. Republicans led by then U.S. Rep. Tom Delay oversaw an especially messy redistricting in 2003.

Suppose the popular former mayor of Houston, Democrat Bill White, unseats incumbent Republican Rick Perry as governor. And suppose Democrats retake the state House of Representatives. (The state Senate is considered safely Republican for now.)

That could happen. Perry's lead over White has narrowed to 4 percent, according to the most recent polls.  And the Republican majority in the Texas House is only 4 seats, whittled down from 26 seats after the 2002 election.

Over the near long term, the prognosis for Republicans retaining their dominance in Texas looks grim. And there's not much they can do about it.

Republicans can hope that Hispanic turnout remains low and that they can continue to lure more Latinos out of the Democratic fold — which they've succeeded in doing over the last three decades.  But as Bob Stein, veteran analyst of Texas politics at Rice University, explains, the demographics overwhelmingly favor Democrats.

Since 1979, Latino support for Democrats in Texas has fallen on average from 75 percent to 60 percent. These Republican gains, however, are being swamped by the explosive growth in the state's Latino population: The number of Hispanics in Texas now stands at 10 million, more than triple that of three decades ago.

“The Democrats can afford to lose a significant percentage of the vote and still gain on the base,” Stein told me. “Elections are determined by how many votes you get.”

And that base continues to grow. Texas became less than half Anglo (non-Hispanic white) in 2003 with more dramatic changes to come.

Steve Murdock, a former Texas state demographer who also headed the U.S. Census Bureau, shared these projections: By 2040, the state's Latino population will account for  between 52 and 59 percent of the total. Only a quarter to a third of Texans will be Anglo, and under 20 percent will be black and Asian.

“Now the big story will be the Arizona law,” Stein adds. “The word I hear is that the President considers Bill White's election in Texas the most important, given the Census.”

Perry, meanwhile, has distanced himself from the Arizona law.

Whether the Latino giant awakes in Texas this year is still to be seen. But the last thing Republicans needed was for anyone to poke at it.

Also posted on the www.fromaharrop.com

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