Sorry for the absence yesterday, I was dealing with a sick two year old.  Mind you, when I was two, I always listened and understood "Daddy's working" and didn't come back to yank on the laptop every 15 seconds.  I'm sure of it.  Really.

At any rate, it's primary day in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio!  All three states host some marquee matchups, including Senate primaries and several competitive House primaries.  We've got some polling that should shed some light on these races.

Senate

North Carolina Primary – PPP (D) shows that undecided is still the big winner in the Democratic primary race to take on Republican Senator Richard Burr in November.  Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham 28%-21% on Election Day.  "Undecided" hasn't gotten less than 40% of the vote in any ballot test so far this year.

Personally I think that just spells incredibly low turnout, and there's a reasonable chance that Marshall or Cunningham will end up with a majority, thereby avoiding a runoff.

Ohio Primary – Lee Fisher continues to open  a lead over Jennifer Brunner in the Democratic primary; he's led by double digits in almost all of the recent polling.  It would be quite the upset if Brunner emerged victorious tonight.  Fisher leads Brunner by 19 points in the RCP average.

Pennsylvania Primary – Arlen Specter's lead in the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll continues to shrink.  Admiral/Congressman Joe Sestak has whittled it down to four points, with two weeks left to go.  Quinnipiac has his lead at 8%, down from a 21-point lead a month ago.  This race has suddenly gotten very interesting, and Specter leads by only 7 in the RCP Average.

The irony, of course, is that Specter switched parties to avoid a primary challenge from Republican Pat Toomey.  Had he stayed the course and helped defeat the rest of the President's initiatives post-Stimulus, I think he might have actually stood a better chance of surviving that primary challenge than the one from Sestak.

Kentucky – Ron Paul's son Rand is likely going to defeat Trey Grayson in the Republican Senate primary in Kentucky.  It's just been that kind of year.  And he leads his Democratic adversaries 47%-38% (against Jack Conway) and 48%-32% (against Dan Mongiardo).  In a normal year, I'm not sure that Kentucky would send a libertarian to the Senate, but in a state where Obama's approval is 41%, it probably isn't going to send a Democrat there this year.

Florida – Following a spate of good publicity following his party switch, Governor Charlie Crist has opened up a slight lead in the three-way race, leading Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek 38%-34%-17%.  My take on this race is that you need to give it a couple of weeks for the sound and fury over Crist's party switch to die down before we'll really have a sense of where things stand.

Missouri – A while back I thought that Roy Blunt had a shot at winning this race by double digits.  If the latest Rasmussen polling showing him up eight points is the start of a trend, I'd have to feel pretty good about this prediction.  It's a state that, even with massive African American turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City, still went for John McCain.  A near majority of the state now strongly disapproves of President Obama, and it's pretty difficult to see the state sending a Democratic Senator to Washington under these conditions.  Blunt leads by three in the RCP Average.

Iowa – Chuck Grassley was on many early “watch” lists as a Republican Senator in a state that President Obama carried handily.  But his polling numbers have held up pretty well, and the latest Rasmussen has him up 13 over his closest competitor.

Louisiana – Polling continues to show Republican David Vitter just at or above 50%, including the latest Republican polling showing him leading Democrat Charlie Melancon 49%-31%.  While dalliances with ladies of the night are usually the kiss of death for a Senator, it's hard to see Louisiana electing a Democrat this year.  Vitter leads Melancon by 15.3 points in the RCP average.

Governor

Iowa – It's pretty difficult to find a Governor more imperiled than Chet Culver.  After winning the 2006 race by a pretty large margin, the Guv finds himself down fifteen points against former Governor Terry Branstad.  Even against other potential candidates, should Brandstad lose his primary somehow, Culver trails or leads with numbers well under fifty percent.  It's looking pretty grim for Democrats in Des Moines.  Branstad leads by 17% in the RCP Average.

New Hampshire – Governor John Lynch continues to toy with the 50% mark in the latest Granite State poll.  Polls have consistently shown him at around 47% or 48%.  He'll probably win, but if whoever emerges from the GOP primary can put together a good campaign, that candidate might just have a shot.

Arizona Primary – Behavior Research  Center is a local Arizona polling company that doesn't seem to push undecideds very hard, and so you almost always see “undecided” winning.  Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, and perhaps all of this early polling of leaners isn't all that useful.  Regardless, their polling showing Governor Brewer leading by nine and receiving 22% of the vote is still good news for the Governor, who might just pull out her race yet.

House

Generic -- Rasmussen's generic ballot testing continues to show the Republicans with a healthy lead over the Democrats, 44%-37%.  That would probably translate to a 60-70 seat pickup if it came to pass in the fall.  Gallup, on the other hand, shows a 45-45 tie in its poll of registered voters.  But again, this is a registered voters poll, and with Gallup's other polling showing a substantial enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, we can assume that this would show a much larger shift between the parties than a 50-50 tie would show.

Hawaii 1 – The Honolulu Advertiser and Ward Research published a poll showing Republican City Councilman Charles Djou leading former Congressman Ed Case and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, 36% to 28% to 22%.  Democratic polling by Harstad Strategic Research for the DCCC shows Djou up 36%-34%-20% (the lead among those “most likely to vote” is an even larger 39%-31%-20% lead).  The takeaway from all of the polling is that Djou is leading, though the lead is fairly narrow.

Voting has already begun in this all-mail-in election, so every day that Djou's lead holds up, the steeper Case's and Hanabusa's climb becomes in this winner-take-all election.  We should note that combined, the Democrats total 50% of the vote, which is to be expected in this district that went 70% for President Obama.  On the other hand, Republicans held the district in the 1980s and were competitive in the early 1990s, so there may be more going on here than simply the split Democratic vote.

Maryland 1 – Over the weekend, Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies showed Republican Andy Harris leading freshman Representative Frank Kratovil 39%-36% in the heavily Republican First Congressional district of Maryland.  This is tighter than earlier POS polling, and it is really not preferable to ask the head-to-head question after the issue questions, as you can bias the response.  Nevertheless, it isn't a particularly good sign for Kratovil to be at 36% as an incumbent six months before an election, either.

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------