President

Today in Gallup, Obama's approval ratings stayed just under 50%, but his disapprovals dropped two points to 43%.  His approval ratings are now showing a very slight downward trend.  Nothing moved Rasmussen's robots today, with 47% approving and 52% disapproving.

Fox News has the President's job approval at 46-46, which represents an improvement from early April's 43-48 split.

Senate

Florida:  Rasmussen waded into the field with a poll of a three-way race between Republican Marco Rubio, Independent Charlie Crist, and Democrat Kendrick Meek.  Rubio still leads the field with 37% of the vote, but Crist is coming on strong with 30% of the vote.  Interestingly, Kendrick Meek, the Democrat, isn't the beneficiary of the split between the Republicans.  This is probably in part because Crist is relatively popular among Democrats.

Wisconsin:  Most senate races are easily categorized into tossup, leans, likely and safe categories.  The Wisconsin Senate race is not one of them.  Wisconsin has hewn close to the national average over the past few Presidential cycles.  Senator Russ Feingold usually runs a few points behind those national averages, barely winning against a strong GOP challenger in the good Democratic year of 1998, and winning with tepid results in 2004 against a no-name Republican challenger -- this is what happens when you are one of the most liberal Senators in a swing state.  With the national environment the way it presently is, Feingold should be ripe for the picking.

But then Republicans failed to recruit a top-tier challenger.  This, the thinking goes, should move this back toward a "safe" designation.  But polls keep coming out showing Feingold vulnerable.  He leads real estate developer Terrence Wall 49%-43%, businessman Dave Westlake 49%-38%, and former state Commerce Secretary Richard Leinenkugel 48%-37%.  These aren't atrocious numbers, but they aren't good numbers for a three-term Senator.  That's why we're keeping this with a "Lean" designation; we don't think that Feingold will lose, but the scenario is pretty easy to see.

House

New Hampshire:  PPP polled the first and second districts of New Hampshire, and found Republicans in an excellent position to pick up both seats.  In the Second District, former Republican Congressman Charlie Bass, who lost to Paul Hodes in 2006, leads Democrat Katrina Swett 47-26%, receiving 18% of the vote from Democrats.  In the First District, two-term Democrat Carol Shea-Porter trails Manchester mayor Frank Guinta 45%-46%.  Her disapproval ratings are terrible, at 50%, and Guinta holds this position despite being unknown to a majority of the district's voters.

Generic: FoxNews also finds bad news for the Democrats.  42% of Republicans claim that they are very interesting in the 2010 elections, versus 20% of Democrats.  That is a recipe for disaster, for obvious reasons, though I suspect that gap will close as the election nears.  Republicans lead the generic ballot 42%-38%, in a poll taken of registered voters.  Fox also found near-parity among Party ID, with 41% identifying as Democrats and 36% identifying as Republicans, a slight improvement for Democrats over previous polling.  It's a substantial improvement for Republicans from 2009, when they trailed 44%-30%.

More North Carolina voters view President Obama unfavorably than favorably for the first time since taking office, a new Civitas Institute survey finds.

"Voter opposition to Obama's unpopular proposals like health care has finally caught up with his personal favorability rating," said Civitas analyst Chris Hayes. "Before, voters were able to separate their personally liking President Obama with his stance on issues, but this has now changed."

Just 65% of Democratic voters said they viewed Obama favorably, down 4 points from last month. Unaffiliated voters' feelings on Obama also changed -- while his favorable rating dropped just 1 point from March, those viewing him unfavorably rose 7 points.

The poll was conducted April 13-15 of 600 LV with a MoE of +/- 4%.

Sen. Russ Feingold's poll numbers are vastly improving with Tommy Thompson now officially out of the running, a new Rasmussen survey finds.

His opponent will now likely be one of the following Republicans: real estate entrepreneur Terrence Wall, businessman Dave Westlake and former state Commerce Secretary Richard Leinenkugel.

Feingold 49
Wall 43
Und 5

Feingold 49
Westlake 38
Und 9

Feingold 48
Leinenkugel 37
Und 8

RCP currently ranks this race as Lean Democratic.

Kyle Trygstad reports on the battle for the mantle of conservatism in the Indiana GOP Senate primary.

On RCM, John Tamny reviews Peter Maass' new book, "Crude World," which argues that "oil rich" countries are worse off than those that import the resource.

On RCW, Daniel McGroarty of the Carmot Strategic Group discusses the United States' dependence on China for rare earth materials that are critical in the construction of military weaponry.

Finally, on RCS, Jeff Neuman writes that it's getting close to "panic time" for the struggling Red Sox.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney endorsed Marco Rubio this morning in the Florida Senate GOP primary. But Cheney didn't just list the reasons he supports Rubio, he took several shots at Gov. Charlie Crist:

“Charlie Crist has shown time and again that he cannot be trusted in Washington to take on the Obama agenda because on issue after issue he actually supports that agenda. Lately it seems Charlie Crist cannot be trusted even to remain a Republican. I strongly urge him to either stay in the Republican Primary or drop out of the race. The only winners from an independent bid by Crist would be Barack Obama and Harry Reid."

Crist is considering running as an independent, and the GOP establishment is clearly applying pressure to get him out of the race altogether. Cheney's endorsement was preceded by House Minority Whip Eric Cantor and Mitt Romney.

Rasmussen has released new numbers in Florida (500 LVs, 4/21, MoE +/- 4.5%) testing a three-way race for Senate with Gov. Charlie Crist running as an independent. Last month, Crist finished third in that hypothetical matchup. But as he nears a decision on his status, the new survey shows him running more strongly.

Senate General Election Matchup
Rubio (R) 37 (-5 vs. last poll, 3/18)
Crist (I) 30 (+8)
Meek (D) 22 (-3)
Und 11 (unch)

Crist's approval rating is now a strong 56 percent, while 43 percent disapprove. A slight plurality -- 37 percent -- say Crist should drop out of the GOP primary and run as an independent. Another 33 percent say no.

Crist's veto of Senate Bill 6, a GOP-favored education reform measure, was hailed by teachers unions. Reports in Florida indicate that as he ponders an independent run, Crist may turn to those teachers groups for support.

But there may be another Democrat in the running as well. Chris Cillizza reports this morning that billionaire Jeff Greene is considering entering the primary race.

In the open race for California's 19th District, which Republican George Radanovich has won easily since 1994, both party nomination fights are close heading into the June 8 primaries, a new SurveyUSA poll finds.

Leading the way in the GOP race are state Sen. Jeff Denham and former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson, with former 11th District Rep. Richard Pombo 10 points back with a quarter of voters undecided (April 16-19, 769 GOP LV, MoE +/- 3.6%).

Denham 27
Patterson 26
Pombo 16
Westlund 6
Und 25

More than half of Democratic voters remain undecided with Loraine Goodwin, John Estrada and Les Marsden all receiving less than 20% (April 16-19, 412 Dem LV, MoE +/- 4.9%).

Goodwin 18
Estrada 15
Marsden 10
Und 56

George W. Bush won this district with 61% in 2004, but President Obama closed the gap in 2008, losing by just a 52%-46% margin.

So says Page Six:

Keith "Uberdork" Olbermann is running wild again at MSNBC. Network higher-ups put the kibosh on Donny Deutsch's weeklong stint hosting a 3 p.m. show called "America the Angry" after Olbermann "went ballistic and threw a fit" when he was featured in a segment on Tuesday, sources said.

About President Obama's weak response to the Sudan:

Memo to Mr. Obama: When a man who has been charged with crimes against humanity tells the world that America is in his pocket, it's time to review your policy.

"I am absolutely certain that generations from now we'll be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment...when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal." - Candidate Barack Obama, effectively wrapping up the Democratic nomination for President in a speech in Minneapolis on June 3, 2008.