Devastating, though not unexpected news out of Illinois:

Broadway Bank, the family-run lender that helped launch U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias' political career, was one of seven Chicago-area institutions seized by the U.S. government Friday and sold to healthier companies.

The failure of Broadway, which was unable to raise the $85 million it needed to remain independent, will cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. $394.3 million.

Giannoulias worked for his father at Chicago-based Broadway before entering politics, and the bank's struggles in recent years with real estate loans gone bad have weighed on Giannoulias' Democratic bid for Barack Obama's old Senate seat.

During Giannoulias' successful run for state treasurer in 2006, he used his banking experience as one of his chief qualifications. But in the Senate race, he has tried to distance himself from the bank's troubles.

"This is a difficult day for bank employees, for my family, for this community and for all those who built businesses and protected their savings with the help of this bank," Chief Executive Demetris Giannoulias said in a statement. "We fought to carry out the vision my father had when he founded Broadway Bank 30 years ago, but our bank -- like many businesses -- has struggled during these challenging times."

This is precisely the news Illinois Democrats had feared, and explains the White House's interest early on in seeing another official in the race. Whether Giannoulias stays on the ballot remains to be seen -- the state party can "Torricelli" him as late as October.

For now, Giannoulias is doing what he can to stem the bleeding. His campaign has just sent a more than 900-word email to supporters explaining the failure and his role in it. You can read that in full after the jump.

(more...)

President

Gallup continues to show a bump for the President, up to 50% for the first time in a few weeks.  Rasmussen sees little movement, with this approve/disapprove steady at 47%/52% for the third day in a row.  I've pretty well decided that I'm only going to run the tracking poll numbers at the week's end, unless some major incident occurs that makes it worth looking at them.

Senate

Georgia:  There seems to be a bit of an anti-incumbent mood lurking out there, in addition to the anti-Democrat mood.  Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson is the favorite for re-election in this heavily Republican state, but he leads his opponent, state labor commissioner Michael Thurmond, 51%-35%.  Isakson doesn't appear to be in any immediate threat of losing, but it is surprising to see him barely above 50%.  This is the only poll out there for this race.

California Primary:  The pollsters' consensus is that former Rep. Tom Campbell holds a narrow edge in the race to take on Senator Barbara Boxer.  SurveyUSA finds him leads Carly Fiorina by seven points, with Chuck DeVore coming in twenty points behind.  Capitol Weekly/Probolsky finds a larger edge for Campbell, although it isn't due to a stronger showing on his part so much as weaker numbers for Fiorina.  Campbell leads by six points in the RCP average, and has led in every poll taken this cycle save one.

Governor

Maryland:  Rasmussen once again polled the Maryland gubernatorial race and found former Governor Bob Ehrlich closing the gap somewhat with Martin O'Malley.  Ehrlich trails by three in Rasmussen's latest, which represents a slight improvement in his number, as well as a slight deterioration in O'Malley's number.  Given the partisan bent of the state, we suspect that Ehrlich will come up short, but O'Malley has been below 50% in every recent poll.  O'Malley leads by 6.3 points in the RCP Average.

New Hampshire:  Governor John Lynch usually enters his re-election bids with 152% approval ratings or thereabouts, and gets 70% of the vote.  But 2010 is a very different year.  He leads his GOP opponents, who are mired in the mid-30s, but gets only 47% against all three.  Against Republican front-runner John Stephen, Lynch leads 36%-47%.  This is the second poll in a row to show Lynch at 47% to Stephen's 36%.   This gets him dangerously close to the true danger zone for incumbents of sub-45% polling.  He also suffers from a 44%/42% approval rating.  Finally, most of the undecideds are Republicans, which suggests a race that could break against Lynch.

Lynch is still the favorite, but I have to disagree with PPP's assessment of him as a "strong" favorite.

Wisconsin:  Rasmussen continues to show improvement for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett against his prospective GOP opponents.  Scott Walker's lead over the Governor has shrunk from a 10-point lead in January to a 2-point lead today.  Most of this is due to Barrett's improving numbers, as opposed to Walker's numbers falling.  Walker leads by 6.2 points in the RCP Average.  Former Congressman and very-nearly-Senator Mark Neumann ties Barrett in Rasmussen, and leads by 4.7 points in the RCP average of that race.

California Primary:  SurveyUSA reappears with a poll showing Meg Whitman leading Steve Poizner by 22 points in her bid to become the Republican gubernatorial nominee.  This is in line with a Capitol Weekly/Probolsky poll showing Whitman ahead by 28 points.  The primary isn't until June 8, so there is plenty of time for this to change.

Rasmussen's latest survey in Wisconsin (500 LVs, 4/20, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows a tight battle in the open-seat race.

General Election Matchups
Neumann (R) 46 (unch vs. last poll, 3/16)
Barrett (D) 46 (+4)
Und 5 (-3)

Walker (R) 46 (-2)
Barrett (D) 44 (+2)
Und 7 (-1)

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) has ticked up in the matchups despite being the only candidate with a net-negative favorable rating.

Favorable Ratings
Neuman 53 / 31
Walker 48 / 33
Barrett 40 / 46

President Obama's job rating in Wisconsin stands at 48 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove. Retiring Gov. Jim Doyle (D) has a weak 37 percent approval rating.

It's becoming increasingly clear that Gov. John Lynch's (D) once sky-high popularity has come back to earth. A Public Policy Polling (D) survey is the latest to show New Hampshire's governor facing a more competitive election bid as he runs for an unprecedented fourth two-year term.

General Election Matchups
Lynch 47 -- Kimball 35 -- Und 18
Lynch 47 -- Stephen 36 -- Und 18
Lynch 47 -- Testerman 29 -- Und 23

To be fair, Lynch is far safer than some of the other Democratic incumbents seeking new terms this fall. But he's facing new criticism from a revitalized New Hampshire GOP as well as national groups over his six-year record. His job approval rating is down to 44 percent, and failing to reach 50 percent under little-known opponents is a sign of vulnerability.

Lynch launched an early TV ad defending his record this week.

A PPP primary poll showed former state health commissioner John Stephen with an early edge in the GOP race.

Why is this not surprising?

Senator Chuck Grassley is asking the Treasury Secretary to justify claims that General Motors has repaid its TARP loans when GM is using other TARP funds to repay the loans.

“It looks like the announcement is really just an elaborate TARP money shuffle,” Grassley said. “The repayment dollars haven't come from GM selling cars but, instead, from a TARP escrow account at the Treasury Department.”

At a naturalization ceremony for U.S. servicemen and women today at the White House, Pres. Obama singled out controversial Arizona legislation that would require local law enforcement to verify the status of suspected illegal immigrants.

"Indeed, our failure to act responsibly at the federal level will only open the door to irresponsibility by others. And that includes, for example, the recent efforts in Arizona, which threatened to undermine basic notions of fairness that we cherish as Americans, as well as the trust between police and their communities that is so crucial to keeping us safe.

In fact, I've instructed members of my administration to closely monitor the situation and examine the civil rights and other implications of this legislation. But if we continue to fail to act at a federal level, we will continue to see misguided efforts opening up around the country.

As a nation, as a people, we can choose a different future -- a future that keeps faith with our history, with our heritage, and with the hope that America has always inspired in the hearts of people all over the world. For just as each of these 24 new citizens once cast their eyes upon our country from afar, so too, somewhere in the world today is a young boy or a young girl wondering if they, too, might someday share in America's promise."

Gov. Jan Brewer (R), who replaced now-Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano last January, is expected to act on the bill today.

Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) remains favored to win re-election this year, even after the recent entrance to the race by state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, a new Rasmussen poll finds (April 22, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

Isakson 51
Thurmond 35
Und 8

Along with the state's natural Republican leaning, the unpopularity of health care bill could be helping Isakson's cause. Just 33% believe it's good for the country, while 56% think it will have a negative impact.

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad highlights five GOP House seats the Democrats could steal in the midterm elections.

On RCM, Boeing President and CEO Jim McNerney, in a speech at the Wilson Center, talks about what's needed to sustain the United States' economic competitiveness.

Writing on The Compass blog on RCW, Kevin Sullivan gives Nick Clegg the win in the second British election debate.

In the first public poll taken since former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) entered the race, Rasmussen (500 LVs, 4/20, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds the 2006 rematch another tight affair, with current Gov. Martin O'Malley's (D) advantage shrinking.

General Election Matchup
O'Malley (D) 47 (-2 vs. last poll, 2/23)
Ehrlich (R) 44 (+1)
Und 7 (+2)

RCP currently classifies the race as Lean Democrat.

Fifty percent of Marylanders approve of the job O'Malley is doing as governor, while 48 percent disapprove. Ehrlich is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters, unfavorably by 39 percent.

President Obama has a 59 percent approval rating in the state.

The Ward Room, an NBC News sponsored blog about the inner workings of Chicago politics, reports on six items from Rod Blagojevich's subpoena of Barack Obama that were supposed to be redacted, but weren't due to a glitch in the electronic filing of the document. The six items that redactions were supposed to conceal were:

1. Obama may have lied about conversations with convicted fraudster Tony Rezko
2. Obama may have overtly recommended Valerie Jarret for his Senate seat
3. A supporter of President Obama may have offered quid pro quo on a Jarrett senate appointment
4. Obama maintained a list of good Senate candidates
5. Rahm Emanuel allegedly floated Cheryl Jackson's name for the Senate seat
6. Obama had a secret phone call with Blagojevich

Read the Ward Room post for the details on each item. Needless to say, if what Blagojevich's attorneys are alleging is grounded in fact, this could be a major headache for the President of the United States.