Former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, running for governor as an independent in Rhode Island, has dipped in Rasmussen's latest survey of the race (500 LVs, 4/21, MoE +/- 4.5%), with one of his potential Democratic opponents pulling to a tie.

General Election Matchups
Chafee (I) 33 (-6 vs. last poll, 3/25)
Caprio (D) 33 (+5)
Robitaille (R) 21 (-1)
Und 13 (+2)

Chafee (I) 35 (-2)
Robitaille (R) 26 (unch)
Lynch (D) 24 (+2)
Und 15 (unch)

RCP currently classifies the race as Lean Independent.

The Democratic primary between State Treasurer Frank Caprio faces Attorney General Patrick Lynch doesn't take place until September 14.

President Obama's job rating in the state has slipped since the March survey; 57 percent approve while 41 percent disapprove, down from a 61/39 split. Retiring Gov. Don Carcieri's (R) numbers have surged, up to 53 percent approval from 43 percent a month ago.

A Rasmussen poll released last week found Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) trailing all potential Republican opponents in the gubernatorial race. Now, a new Public Policy Polling (D) survey (813 RVs, 4/23-25, MoE +/- 3.4%) finds the exact opposite.

General Election Matchups
Goddard (D) 47 -- Arpaio (R) 44 -- Und 9
Goddard (D) 47 -- Brewer (R) 44 -- Und 10
Goddard (D) 47 -- Martin (R) 36 -- Und 17
Goddard (D) 45 -- Mills (R) 37 -- Und 18
Goddard (D) 46 -- Munger (R) 31 -- Und 23

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has not announced his candidacy. The filing deadline for the Republican primary is May 26. RCP currently classifies the race as a Toss Up.

The survey was in the field just after Gov. Jan Brewer's (R) decision to sign an immigration measure requiring local law enforcement to verify the citizenship of anyone reasonably suspected of being here illegally. PPP's Debnam says in the release that, “Brewer and Arpaio could both beat Goddard if they rally illegal immigration opponents.”

Brewer has a 35 percent job approval rating; 46 percent disapprove.

Chris Bowers of OpenLeft writes:

Young voters and first-time voters are absolutely Obama's base.  McCain actually won voters age 40 and over, and Obama only won non-first-time voters by 2%.  Compared to other recent Democratic coalitions, Obama relied far more heavily upon young voters and first-time voters.

However, this also reveals a fundamental weakness of the Obama electoral coalition, especially during midterm elections.  Turnout is way down during midterm elections, and there is no group where turnout declines during midterms more than it declines among young voters:

As I've noted, Obama's coalition is an exaggerated version of Bill Clinton's coalition:  It dropped Appalachian America, but made up for it with higher turnout and voting among young, minority and suburban voters.  The problem, as Bowers noted, is that young and minority voters participation tends to drop off in midterm elections, even in good Democratic years.

In 2004 -- a good Republican year -- white voters were 77% of the electorate, and voters in the 18-29% demographic comprised 17% of the electorate.  In 2006, a great Democratic year, whites made up 79% of the electorate and voters in the 18-29% demographic fell to 12% of the electorate.   In 2008, whites were down to 74% of the electorate, (which McCain carried 55%-43%), while young voters were up to 18% of the electorate (which Obama carried 66%-32%).

Gallup's latest polling shows why this is such a problem for Democrats.  47% of voters aged 18-29 were not very enthusiastic about voting this fall.  This is almost double the number of voters aged 65+ (29%) that are unenthusiastic about voting and well over the number of voters aged 50-64 that are unenthusiastic about voting.  This is highly problematic for the Democrats because younger voters plan to vote for a Democrat by a 51-39 margin, while voters in the 65+ demographic break 50-41 for Republicans.  In equal numbers these groups would cancel each other out, but a flood of elderly voters would swamp a less enthusiastic youth vote.

Most analysts have assumed that this will change in 2012, and that Obama's coalition will rear its head again.  I'm not so sure.  2012 is a long way off, and I'm not making any predictions here.  But part of Obama's appeal was the freshness surrounding his candidacy.  The prospect of "change," the excitement surrounding electing the first black President, the posters, baseball hats, t-shirts and all of the iconography contributed to Obama's outsized showing among these groups.

I think recreating that excitement is going to be like trying to catch lightning in a bottle.  Re-electing the first black President is exciting, but not nearly as exciting as doing it the first time.  By 2012, Obama will have a difficult time running as the candidate of change, especially if he continues to make substantial accomplishments in his first term.  He'll have been on the scene for five years then, probably will have endured at least one scandal, and may have been forced to compromise with Republicans repeatedly if they take control of Congress in 2010.

And even if Obama can re-energize his base in 2012, what then?  His is a uniquely personal coalition, and whomever comes next is going to have a hard time filling the shoes of a rather unique candidate.  If the damage done to other parts of the Clinton coalition is permanent, then the Democrats are going to have to make some major changes to retain their electoral coalition.

While GM is busy misleading the public about repayment of its billions of taxpayer funded debt, Ford - which opted against taking a bailout from the government - is actually making real money:

Ford today said it earned $2.08 billion, or 50 cents per share, during the first quarter of the year, providing more evidence that the Dearborn automaker's turnaround plan is on track.

Ford's profit also eclipsed its loss of $1.43 billion, or 60 cents per share, for the same January through March period last year.

Ford also easily beat Wall Street's expectations. Before special charges, Ford earned $1.76 billion, or 46 cents per share. [snip]

Ford CFO Lewis Booth said it was Ford's best quarterly performance in six years and said Ford now expects the company will be “solidly profitable” this year. Until now, Ford had only said it expected to report a profit in 2010.

It's now just one week until North Carolina Democrats go to the polls to choose a candidate to face off with Sen. Richard Burr (R) this November. But a new SurveyUSA poll (511 LVs, 4/23-26, MoE +/- 4.4%) shows that no candidate has broken from the pack.

Primary Election Matchup
Marshall 23
Cunningham 19
Lewis 10
Harris 7
Other 8
Und 34

A separate poll of the GOP primary (520 LVs, 4.3%) shows Burr well ahead in his bid for renomination, though with a less-than-spectacular 59 percent level of support over token opposition.

RCP currently classifies the race as Lean Republican.

UPDATE: PPP is also out with new numbers in the primary today.

Primary Election Matchup -- PPP (D)
(458 LVs, 4/24-26, MoE +/- 4.6%)
Marshall 26 (+3 vs. last poll, 4/8-11)
Cunningham 23 (+6)
Lewis 7 (-2)
Harris 3 (-1)
Other 7 (+6)
Und 34 (-11)

Rep. Pete Hoekstra is the early favorite for the Aug. 3 GOP primary in the Michigan governor's race, according to a new Rasmussen poll (April 22, 481 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). The nine-term congressman from Western Michigan has twice as much support than his next closest opponents, though a third of likely voters remain undecided.

Pete Hoekstra 28
Rick Snyder 14
Mike Cox 13
Mike Bouchard 9
Und 32

A different polling firm recently found attorney Geoffrey Fieger leading the Democratic primary.

Mike Memoli has a story on Politics Nation about Arlen Specter's first primary fight as a Democrat.

On RCM, John Tamny takes on the argument that "global imbalances" played a major role in the financial crisis.

Doug Clawson, writing on the Media Watch blog, argues that newspapers need to "embrace" their print editions to survive.

RCS has a list of the Top 10 Sports Twitter Stories and a new column from Tim Joyce in which he argues that if it weren't for injuries, Ken Griffey Jr. would be chasing Hank Aaron's home run record this season.

For more commentary on the world of sports, check out RCS' Sidelines blog.

Finally, visit The Compass blog on RCW for analysis of world news.

Facing criticism from the right, Bob Bennett is in danger of becoming the first sitting Utah senator in seven decades to lose his party's nomination, according to a Salt Lake Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll of state GOP convention delegates.

If no candidate receives 60% of the delegate vote at the May 8 convention, the top two finishers advance to the June 22 primary. However, Bennett currently finds himself in third place. Mike Lee leads with 37%, followed by Tim Bridgewater with 20%, Bennett with 16% and Cherilyn Eagar with 11%.

"Bennett has almost no shot of getting more votes at the convention than Bridgewater and Lee," said Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker.

The result comes despite Bennett's uptick in spending this month. The Deseret News reports Bennett dropped a whopping $271,000 in the first 18 days of April. He's now spent nearly $700,000 since Jan. 1.

Under normal circumstances, I probably wouldn't draw attention to this headline, tragic though it is. But when the Pulitzer Prizes were announced last week, I was drawn to the title of  Gene Weingarten's winning feature and spent 15 minutes engrossed his reporting on these incomprehensible tragedies.

Slow polling day . . .

Governor

Michigan Primary: Venerable Michigan pollster EPIC/MRA polled the Michigan gubernatorial primary and found that the leading Democrat is an undeclared one.  '98 candidate Geoffrey Feiger -- who was trounced by John Engler in a good Democratic year -- leads the other three Democrats tested.  The primary isn't until August 3, but the fact that no Democrat seems to be able to break into the 30s in any poll test doesn't seem to bode particularly well for Democrats.

House

Two generic ballot tests today demonstrate the difficulty the Democrats will have as they launch their 2010 "keep the House" effort.  Rasmussen shows Republicans leading the Democrats by a six-point margin, 44%-38%.  This represents a tightening from the last test, but really Republicans have been bobbing around 44-45% of the vote since last November, while the Democrats have been oscillating around 36-37% of the vote since about that time.

Gallup, which is presently polling registered voters and hence wouldn't pick up any differences in partisan enthusiasm, shows the battle for Congress tightening, with both parties tied at 45%.  Republicans lead in the RCP average by two points.

This environment is creating difficulties for even venerable Democrats incumbents.  In North Dakota, Earl Pomeroy trails his opponent, state Representative Rick Berg, by a 49%-45% margin.  This represents a slight improvement since the last time Rasmussen polled the race, but it is really a terrible number for a nine-term incumbent.  Moving southward, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is pulling in about the same numbers as Pomeroy; it is just that her opponents don't poll as well.  Sandlin hasn't voted for much of the Democrats' agenda and is probably somewhat insulated from the charges of liberalism that are being hurled at Pomeroy.  But she still leads Secretary of State Chris Nelson by only a 45%-41% margin (she performs somewhat better against the state representatives running against her).

It's an ugly environment to be running as a Democrat.  Hopefully we'll gets some more House race polling in the next few months.  If the Democrats are really 2-3 points behind in the national vote, we are almost certainly in for some surprisingly bad polling numbers from venerable incumbents.