Though Alexi Giannoulias is set to be at President Obama's event today in Quincy, Illinois, Lynn Sweet reports that we shouldn't expect to hear him give a "shout out" to his old basketball buddy:

[WH Deputy Press Secretary Bill] Burton was asked, "Do you think the President is going to acknowledge his presence and talk a little bit about his campaign, which is sort of having some trouble at the moment," a reference to the failure last week of the family controlled Broadway Bank.

Replied Burton, "I don't think it would be appropriate for the President to talk about anybody's campaign at what are all official events."

Meanwhile, a few miles down river the St. Louis Dispatch carries an unflattering editorial this morning about Giannoulias' Broadway Bank mess:

There remains doubt about Mr. Giannoulias' personal culpability for the problems at Broadway Bank. He has stressed that he hasn't been associated with the bank since taking leave to run for treasurer, and claims that the bank's problems are no different from those of many small banks who were overly aggressive with commercial lending.

But he did cite his banking experience in the treasurer's race. And the bank did loan money to Rezko, the Blagojevich bag-man convicted of fraud and bribery in 2008. And after he became chief loan officer in 2004 at the tender age of 28, he was part of the banking brain trust that loaned $26 million to a partnership that included an ex-mob bookie named Michael “Jaws” Giorango.

No polling has been done since the news late Friday that Broadway's failure will cost taxpayers a cool $394 million. As of right now, Kirk leads by less than a point in the RCP Average, and we have the race classified a Toss Up.

One year ago today, Sen. Arlen Specter shocked the political world by announcing he would abandon a tough GOP primary battle and join the Democratic caucus. In an interview with the Allentown Morning Call, Specter sounds unsure of whether he made the right decision, however, given how the Senate remains deeply divided.

''Well, I probably shouldn't say this,'' he said over lunch last month. ''But I have thought from time to time that I might have helped the country more if I'd stayed a Republican.''

Specter mused that perhaps if he'd remained in the caucus he could have persuaded one or two of his GOP colleagues to support health care reform. Not one Senate Republican voted in favor of it, but he swears he would have regardless of party affiliation.

''Coalition building has gone out of style in this wing of the building,'' he said. Breaking from party ranks to vote with the other side is a ''very unpleasant experience.''

As noted at Politics Nation earlier this week, Specter still faces a primary fight. And back to his defense is actor Michael J. Fox, appearing in a new ad for the senator praising him for his advocacy of biomedical research.

Meanwhile, expect to hear the campaign of Marco Rubio in Florida using the anniversary to rally supporters as Gov. Charlie Crist appears ready to abandon the GOP.

"President Palin."

On Politics Nation, Kyle Trygstad breaks down the political challenges of getting immigration reform through Congress.

On the Media Watch blog, Doug Clawson weighs in on the battle between the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal in the Big Apple.

On RCM, Bill Frezza argues that the Goldman situation reveals what happens when an "out of control corporate culture" meets "a corrupt and futile regulatory regime."

Also on RCM, Steven Malanga writes about how elected officials across the country are taking on public sector pensions and benefits in 2010.

On RCS, Art Spander argues that there was never any reason to worry that the Lakers wouldn't be able to handle the Thunder.

Finally, for the latest on the situation in Greece, visit RCW's Eurozone Crisis page.

Rasmussen today has released numbers on the Georgia governor race from a poll conducted last week (500 LVs, 4/22, MoE +/- 4.5%). Republicans win all but one of the potential matchups.

General Election Matchups
Oxendine (R) 45 (+4 vs. last poll, 3/17)
Barnes (D) 43 (+2)
Und 6 (-5)

Deal (R) 46 (+3)
Barnes (D) 39 (-1)
Und 8 (-5)

Handel (R) 42 (unch)
Barnes (D) 41 (+2)
Und 10 (-4)

Barnes (D) 42 (+4)
Johnson (R) 37 (-1)
Und 13 (-3)

Oxendine (R) 44
Baker (D) 34
Und 13

Deal (R) 47
Baker (D) 31
Und 13

Handel (R) 44
Baker (D) 36
Und 15

Johnson (R) 38
Baker (D) 35
Und 18

Rasmussen has new numbers today (500 LVs, 4/27, MoE +/- 4.5%) on Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) in the wake of her decision to sign a law requiring local law enforcement to verify the status of suspected illegal immigrants.

First off, her job approval rating is way up -- to 56 percent, up from 40 percent just two weeks earlier. Disapproval is now at 42 percent, down from 56 percent.

There's also a new ballot test against Attorney General Terry Goddard (D):

General Election Matchup
Brewer 48 (+4 vs. last poll, 4/16)
Goddard 40 (unch)
Und 5 (-1)

A Public Policy Polling (D) survey released yesterday, conducted just a few days earlier, showed Brewer's job rating far lower, and Goddard leading Brewer by 3 points.

Up to this point, Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher was unable to break away from his Senate Democratic primary opponent, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. But with the May 4 primary now just a week away, a new Quinnipiac poll out this morning finds Fisher up 16 points, with a third of voters still undecided.

"Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has moved into the driver's seat for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter A. Brown. "For the last year he had held a small lead over Ms. Brunner, but as the primary approaches he has more than doubled his margin. Fisher clearly has momentum on his side."

Fisher 41 (+8 vs. last poll, March 30)
Brunner 24 (-2)
Und 34 (-6)

The winner will take on former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the general election. The seat came open with the retirement of Republican Sen. George Voinovich. RCP classifies the race as a Toss Up.

The survey was conducted April 22-26 of 987 Dem LV with a MoE of +/- 3.1%.

President Obama's "White House to Main Street" tour takes him to his adopted home state of Illinois tomorrow. He'll deliver remarks at the Oakley Lindsay Civic Center in Quincy, just across the Mississippi River from Missouri. In attendance, according to his office, will be Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, the Democratic nominee for Obama's former Senate seat.

You haven't heard much from the White House since the Giannoulias family bank failed this weekend. Previously, the administration had stated little more than that Giannoulias, a former Chicago hoops buddy of the president, had the administration's support as the party's nominee. Giannoulias did meet with administration officials during a visit to Washington last month, and earned a shoutout from Obama during an event honoring Greek Independence Day, identifying him as a "potential member of Congress." Politico reported that Sen. Dick Durbin (D) was rebuffed in a request for a stepped-up effort from the administration on Giannoulias' behalf.

Obama would be expected to acknowledge Giannoulias tomorrow, as he customarily does for any elected officials in attendance. But a White House spokesman says the president has no plans to meet with him on the trip.

Another slow polling day . . .

Senate

Utah Primary:  Probably the biggest news is that Bob Bennett's Senate career may be drawing to a close. If Bob Bennett fails to receive 60% of the vote at the GOP convention, he will have to face off in a primary in June.  But if he doesn't even make it to second place at the convention, he won't even be in the primary.

A Mason-Dixon poll of GOP delegates finds his position extremely precarious.  He receives 16% of the vote, compared to 37% for former gubernatorial aide Mike Lee and 20% for former congressional candidate Tim Bridgewater.  It's hard to poll conventions -- witness the polling of caucuses and even primaries in 2008 -- but if this poll is even close to correct, it's hard to see Bennett pulling out the "w".

This was the wrong year to have your name attached to a major healthcare bill that was similar to Obamacare.

North Carolina Primary:  Both SurveyUSA and PPP (D) were in the field for the North Carolina Senate primary, and both came up with roughly the same numbers.  Secretary of State Elaine Marshall leads former state Senator Cal Cunningham by four points in SurveyUSA (23%-19%) and by three points in PPP (26%-23%).  Other minor candidates pick up a fairly sizeable portion of the vote, reflecting the fact that neither Democratic frontrunner is particularly well known.  The primary is next Tuesday, May 4.

Governor

Arizona: Of all the gubernatorial races this cycle, Arizona is probably the most difficult one to figure out.  Governor Jan Brewer is unpopular, but her base is bound to be fired up after signing a tough law on illegal immigration this past week.  Attorney General Terry Goddard leads all of the Republicans in the latest PPP polling, but the Gov. has closed to within three points.   But while PPP has Goddard faring better against the lesser-known Republicans, Rasmussen shows him performing much better against them.

In other words, there's way too many balls in the air to make a definitive call on this race.  It's a true tossup at this point.

Michigan Primary:  Michigan Democrats still have no idea who to support in their August primary.  A couple of days ago, polling showed undeclared candidate Geoffrey Feiger leading the pack.  Today, Rasmussen shows the Democrats struggling to approach 15% of the vote.  Obviously, these guys have some work to do before August.  On the Republican side, Congressman Pete Hoekstra continues to lead the pack, as he has done in most polling.

South Dakota:  Scott Rasmussen finds that the Republicans continue to find themselves in a good position to hold the Governor's mansion in that state.  Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard leads State Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem 53%-33%.  Heidepriem is tied with Republican state Senator Dave Knudson and leads state Senator Gordon Howie 46%-31%.  There's a good chance that Democrats will break the GOP's 30-year winning streak in South Dakota eventually, but it isn't going to be this year.

Rhode Island:  It's kind of amazing (and unlikely), but at the end of this cycle there's a small chance that there won't be a single Democratic governor in New England.  But in Rhode Island it likely won't be a Republican at the helm.  Independent Lincoln Chafee has led in most polling (what little there has been) in this state.  In Rasmussen's latest, he leads Attorney General Patrick Lynch by nine points, but he's tied with Treasurer Frank Caprio.  The primary doesn't occur until September, so there's plenty of time before Lynch risks falling victim to the "electability" argument.

On the heels of yesterday's report showing nearly half of young voters aged 18-29 - a critical piece of Obama's 2008 coalition - are "not enthusiastic" about voting in this year's election, Gallup is out with another body blow for Democrats today with a survey showing that the GOP leads Democrats by 20 points among those voters most enthusiastic about the 2010 midterms.

Among all registered voters, the GOP leads in the generic congressional ballot in the current Gallup survey by just one point, 46 to 45. But among those who are "very enthusiastic" about voting in November, the GOP lead over Democrats balloons to a 57/37 gap:

Two weeks ago Sean took a look at a "doomsday" scenario for Democrats in 2010 in which he wrote the following about the generic ballot numbers:

This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone - one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats "during my 50 years of following politics closely." The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.

But many of these polls survey registered voters. Polling among likely voters, such as Rasmussen Reports, shows Republicans up by about 8-10 points, which would probably represent a seventy-seat pickup.

And the polls of the most highly energized voters are even worse for Democrats. Recent NBC/WSJ polling found that Democrats led by three points among registered voters. But among those most interested in the November elections, Republicans led by 13 points.

This reminds me of the polling that showed Martha Coakley up 15 points in early January, but which also showed her and Scott Brown tied among those most interested in the race.

The exit poll model I used in late 2009 to suggest that the Massachusetts Senate race would be a close one leads to a similar conclusion. You can read the article here for a more thorough explanation, but applying the model to a national ballot test suggests that the Democrats should lose the popular vote 57%-43%.

Sean's back of the envelope math is awfully close to Gallup's latest reading, which means that if such a huge enthusiasm gap persists all the way through November, a "doomsday" scenario of Democrats losing 80-90+ House seats is within the realm of possibility.

Let me finish by throwing out the mandatory but utterly cliche caveat that six months is an eternity in politics and that a lot can, and probably will change between now and November.