I've been following Congressional and Senate races closely for almost fourteen years now, and I honestly can't remember seeing a sitting Senator polling below thirty percent in a poll ever before.   Certainly not six months before an  election.  But according to Rasmussen Reports, there's a first time for everything.  4/26/2010, 500 LVs, +/-  4.5%

Kim Hendren (R) -- 51%
Blanche Lincoln (D) -- 30%

Gilbert Baker (R) -- 53%
Blanche Lincoln (D) -- 31%

Curtis Coleman (R) -- 52%
Blanche Lincoln (D) -- 32%

Jim Holt (R) -- 54%
Blanche Lincoln (D) -- 31%

John Boozman (R) -- 57%
Blanche Lincoln (D) -- 29%

Kim Hendren (R) -- 45%
Bill Halter (D) -- 33%

Gilbert Baker (R) -- 48%
Bill Halter (D) -- 33%

Curtis Coleman (R) -- 43%
Bill Halter (D) -- 37%

Jim Holt (R) -- 49%
Bill Halter (D) -- 31%

John Boozman (R) -- 56%
Bill Halter (D) -- 31%

Mitch Stewart, Director of Organizing for America (aka President Obama's grassroots campaign organization) sent out the following fundraising plea to supporters - in this case targeting the Chicago area:

"Republicans win back House, Senate." "Voters reject Obama's agenda."

If you listen to the talking heads on TV, it's like November 3rd's headlines are already written.

But here's what they don't know -- and it's why they're dead wrong: The same grassroots movement that knocked on the most doors, made the most calls, and inspired the most first-time voters in history in 2008 hasn't gone anywhere. In fact, we're gearing up to do it all again.

You heard it from the President on Monday. We've been planning for the fall campaign all year. And we know full well that winning nationally means organizing locally. Every House district holds an election this year, and all but five states will vote statewide for a governor or senator.

We need to get moving in IL -- and all over the country -- earlier than ever before. David Plouffe and I have taken a hard look at the numbers, and we need 591 donations from Chicago by May 1st to kick off our efforts.

Please donate $5 or more to help us get more boots on the ground and start implementing our 2010 grassroots strategy now.

Republicans are already calling 2010 a "referendum" on the President's agenda. They're campaigning to win majorities in Congress, so they can roll back the progress we've worked so hard to make. In fact, hundreds of candidates have signed a pledge, circulated by the conservative Club for Growth, to repeal health insurance reform.

If history is any guide, this is nothing to scoff at. In midterm elections, the president's party regularly loses seats. And an economy that's still recovering only makes our job harder.

But history has never seen anything like us.

While Sarah Palin gives big speeches mocking "community organizers," we're investing in them. Our field operation is far and away the largest of its kind in history. OFA staff and volunteers are pounding the pavement across the country.

From the earliest primaries in 2008 to the fight for Wall Street reform, while the attacks ads were flying and the cynics were talking down our chances, we've done what we know best -- keep on organizing. Investing in these resources is what will make it possible for us to set records again in 2010.

The headlines we wake up to on November 3rd are in our hands. But we can't succeed without a strong start -- and we can't do it without you.

Will you be one of the first in Chicago to chip in $5 to get our grassroots off the ground? Donate now:

https://donate.barackobama.com/2010kickoff

The fight ahead is going to be tough. With your help, Election Night doesn't have to be.

Thanks,

Mitch

Mitch Stewart
Director
Organizing for America

Senate

Ohio Primary:  With only a few days to go in the primary contest,  Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher may well be opening up a lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.  Every poll taken this cycle has shown Fisher with a lead, but the most recent Quinnipiac poll (which has done almost all the polling in this race) shows him with a double-digit lead for the first time this cycle.  Of course "undecided" still gets the most responses, and most voters could still change their mind, so the situation is probably best described as "fluid, with Fisher in the lead."

Arizona:  PPP (D) has polled the Arizona Senate race, and finds that former Congressman JD Hayworth trails Democratic City Councilman Rodney Glassman by three points, while Senator John McCain wins by sixteen points.  This actually contrasts with most other polling, which shows both Republicans leading Glassman.   PPP also finds John McCain's approval rating at 34%, which is pretty terrible for an incumbent.

This looks like an outlier for now; we'll wait to see what other polling tells us.

UPDATE:  Ask  an ye shall receive!  Arizona pollster BRC weighs in with polling showing Hayworth leading Glassman by seven points, and McCain up by twenty-four points.  Moreover, BRC finds McCain leading Hayworth 54%-28% in the primary.

North Dakota:  I wish I could write something unique, interesting and insightful about the North Dakota Senate race, but there isn't too much to write.  John Hoeven leads his Democratic opponent by forty-five points and is almost certainly going to be the next Senator from that state.

Governor

Arizona Governor:  Rasmussen's polling today shows a big boost in Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer's approval ratings, and an increase in her lead over Democrat Terry Goddard.  This stands in contrast to the PPP (D) poll showing Brewer's numbers quite a bit lower, and Goddard leading.

The difference? Lots of potential reasons, but the most likely one (to my mind) is that Rasmussen polls likely voters, while PPP was polling registered voters.  Highly enthusiastic voters make it through likely voter screens.

Georgia Governor:  Rasmussen polled all of the Georgia Governor's race matchups, and found the Republicans leading all of the matchups  but one.  I think the situation is a little worse than the polling is letting on.  The likely Democratic nominee, Roy Barnes, is a former Governor who already lost one re-election race in the state.  To be stuck in the low/mid-40s in a state with a heavy GOP bent isn't the position he really wants to be in.  Of course a number of the GOP candidates are surrounded by allegations of ethical improprieties, so I would imagine there is room for growth here.

Eliot Spitzer's rehabilitation is already well under way, but it looks like Kobe Bryant's is fully complete. I'm sure Tiger and Big Ben are already pining for the day.....

"It's not a question of the danger of contagion. Contagion has already happened. This is like Ebola, when you realize you have it you have to cut your leg off in order to survive."  - Angel Gurria, secretary general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, speaking about the sovereign debt crisis sweeping through the EU.

Here's  Harry Reid, speaking to reporters yesterday after the GOP again blocked debate on Senator Dodd's financial reform bill: “We're trying to protect the American people. They're trying to protect Wall Street,” Reid said. This is a reiteration of the simplistic narrative President Obama pushed the other day.

But here are two other headlines from yesterday worth considering:

1) Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein Supports Financial Reform Bill - The Hill

2) Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit Writes Letter to Obama in Support of Regulatory Reform - Bloomberg

Lastly, read this oped from Doug Tippens, CEO of a community bank in Oklahoma, who writes:

Everyone agrees that financial reform is necessary. We all watched in amazement as the cataclysmic meltdown of some of the largest financial firms in the United States nearly toppled our economy in September 2008. But how many traditional community banks in Oklahoma caused the problems? None.

So why would Oklahoma bankers oppose the financial reform bill pending in the Senate? Simple: As presently drafted, the bill doesn't end "too big to fail” and would increase the costs and reporting obligations of traditional community banks and their customers.

For example, the creation of the consumer protection bureau applies to traditional community banks and their customers, but it exempts entities regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In other words, it applies to every bank, savings bank and credit union in Oklahoma, but lets the bad guys skate. This is wrong.

It's the "non-banks” and securities firms that brought us all of the gimmicks that should be the focus of this new agency, but they are exempt from the reach of this new agency. [snip]

It's curious that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren't covered by this legislative proposal, considering that they were front and center of the nation's mortgage crisis and ensuing financial meltdown. The reason is simple: The government wants to control the mortgage business, much like it now controls student loans.

All of this places Wall Street and Main Street at odds. We think Wall Street and its executive bonuses, complex derivatives, credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations need reform. Our country's financial structure needs review so our country doesn't experience another crisis. But what we also need is to leave traditional community banks alone to help Main Street recover.

Now ask yourself a simple question: Notwithstanding yesterday's grilling of Goldman execs and Congressional histrionics about "shitty deals," why are the CEO's of two of the largest banks on Wall Street in favor of passing Dodd's bill while community bankers all across the country like Tippens are against it?

 David Paul Kuhn well captures my long-running frustration in trying to work around The New York Times's agenda when the subject is immigration. He shows how the paper lumps together legal and undocumented immigrants to underplay the damage caused by illegal immigration. In this case, the piece slyly implies that illegal immigrants do not depress the wages of America's low-skilled workers.

The game, also blatantly played in countless editorials, is to portray the controversy as being pro-immigrant versus anti-immigrant —rather than over the true source of public anger, which is illegal immigration. As Kuhn points out, legal immigration enjoys widespread support.

 The Times did it again today. Try to decipher this passage in Study Finds Young Hispanics Face Obstacles to Integration:

 More than one in five American children are Latino. While 92 percent of them are citizens, 58 percent live with one or more foreign-born parents.

Readers are no doubt scratching their heads, wondering what percentage of those foreign-born parents are in the country illegally.  If immigration status weren't germane, there would be no purpose in the "while" clause, noting that the great majority of Latino children are citizens.

Already in a tough election struggle, British PM Gordon Brown stuck his f0ot in his mouth - and likely a fork in his election hopes - by calling a sixty-six year old lifetime Labour voter a "bigoted woman." The above graphic from The Sun pretty well captures to timeline and the magnitude of Gordo's gaffe.

Sen. John McCain got some good and bad news in a new Public Policy Polling survey of the Arizona Senate race (April 23-25, 813 RV, MoE +/- 3.4%). The longtime incumbent polls far better against a Democrat than does his GOP primary opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

However, at 34% McCain's job approval rating is 11 points lower than Obama's. Less than 50% of Republicans approve of McCain's job performance, as do only 28% of independents.

With Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman (D) unknown to most of the state, McCain bests him in a hypothetical matchup by 16 points while Glassman holds a 3-point lead over Hayworth.

McCain 49 - Glassman 33 - Und 18

Hayworth 39 - Glassman 42 - Und 19

RCP currently classifies the race as Safe Republican.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has announced plans for a "Senate Qualifying Event" tomorrow at 5 p.m. in St. Petersburg. What exactly he's qualifying for is unclear, though it would seem to suggest that he will not drop out of the race altogether.

The announcement comes one day before the Friday deadline to qualify for primary ballots.

Many expect Crist to drop out of the GOP primary and instead run in the general election as an independent. Recent reports also indicate that Crist could qualify for the GOP primary and then drop out later before the primary ballots are printed.

It seems we'll find out tomorrow.