In the wake of the new jobs numbers report this morning showing an increase of 162,000 jobs created in March and the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.7%, Republicans in Congress have been quick to point out that the news -- while encouraging -- is no reason to rejoice.

As you'll notice, most of the statements include the word "but" or a similar conjunction:

House Minority Leader John Boehner: "Today's private-sector job gains are encouraging but not nearly what President Obama promised when he signed the trillion-dollar ‘stimulus' into law last year with promises it would keep unemployment below eight percent and create jobs ‘immediately.'"

Republican Study Committee Chairman Tom Price: "New job opportunities for the American people are always welcome news, but we have still yet to see the robust private sector job creation the Obama administration promised would come from its $862 billion failed stimulus."

Illinois Rep. Peter Roskam: "In this economy, any increase in jobs is good news. But today's jobs numbers are the economic equivalent of cotton candy."

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor: "Any report showing that the economy added jobs is clearly a better alternative to one showing that it lost more jobs. Yet we must set our sights higher, our goals larger, and our actions bolder."

Rasmussen's latest polling (3/25/2010, 500 LVs, MOE +/- 4.5%) shows Republicans in the driver's seat to pick up the Wyoming Governor's seat.  Tested are Republican US Attorney Matt Mead, Ex-Agriculture Director Ron Micheli, State Auditor Rita Meyer, and State House Speaker Colin Simpson against Democratic State Senator and Minority Leader Mike Massie:

Matt Mead 43% -- Mike Massie 25%

Ron Micheli 45% -- Mike Massie 23%

Rita Meyer 43% -- Mike Massie 26%

Colin Simpson 41% -- Mike Massie 26%

The Republican primary is August 17, 2010.

The nation added 162,000 jobs in March, the biggest increase since May 2007, it was announced this morning. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports:

Job growth continued in temporary help services and in health care. Federal government employment increased due to the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010. Job losses continued in financial activities and in information.

Hiring related to the 2010 U.S. Census accounts for 48,000 of those jobs; 123,000 jobs were added in the private sector.

So why did the unemployment rate hold if there was job growth? Unemployed Americans who had given up on the job market are now seeking employment again. The U6 unemployment rate, considered a broader measure, ticked up to 16.9 percent.

President Obama is scheduled to address the unemployment picture on a trip to North Carolina this morning. He'll visit an advanced battery technology manufacturer that is now hiring because of a Recovery Act grant, the White House says, where he'll "point to the economic progress made since he took office and continue his push for Congress to build on that progress by acting on his additional job creation proposals." Let the spin begin.

Presidential Tracking Polls

The President's numbers continued to improve in the Gallup tracking poll.  His disapprove number fell one point, to 42%, while his approval stayed steady at 50%.  He's still a bit below where he was right after health care reform passed, but is up from last weekend.

In Rasmussen Reports, the President's total approve dropped a point to 47%, and his total disapprove inched upward two points to 53%.  His “strongly disapprove” numbers stayed the same, while the number strongly approving fell two points, to 31%.  I wonder if his decision to allow offshore drilling softened up some of the strong support he had earned among Democrats, or made some of his supporters less enthusiastic, such that they dropped out of the likely voter screen.

Senate

Arkansas Senate:  The entry of Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter into the Arkansas Senate race does not seem to have done much to improve the chances of the Democrats retaining this seat.  Rasmussen finds that Senator Blanche Lincoln continues to post Rick Santorum-like numbers, trailing all of her potential opponents by double digits, and earning no better than 36% of the vote against any of them.

Halter trails the various Republicans by smaller margins, but that is only because a number of voters switch into the “undecided” camp when his name is used instead of Lincoln's.  Halter is still a statewide elected official mired at 36%, which is better than being a Senator mired at 36%, in the same way that you'd rather be a turtle in front of a steamroller than an inchworm.

Alabama Senate:  In case you were itchin' to know, Scott Rasmussen found that Richard Shelby is leading his opponent, attorney William Barnes, 59%-32%.

Governor

Ohio Governor:  Rasmussen finds some of the same movement that Quinnipiac picked up in the Ohio gubernatorial race.  Former Congressman John Kasich still leads Governor Strickland, but by a small 1% margin, 46%-45%.  As with the Q poll, Strickland's rebound comes from an improved showing among Independent voters.  Kasich's lead in the RCP average is down to .8%, though again, Strickland can't be too excited that he averages 41.7% in the polls.

Alabama Governor:  Following up on PPP's release, Rasmussen polled the Alabama Governor's race in conjunction with his Senate poll.  He also finds that the Democrats are likely to have an uphill battle winning back the Governor's mansion, though unlike PPP, he finds that Republicans would be underdogs if they nominated Roy Moore, the controversial former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama.

House

USA Today/Gallup becomes the latest polling outfit to show Republicans in the lead in the generic ballot, with 46% saying that they would like to see Republicans take control of Congress and 45% saying that they would like Democrats to take control of Congress.  For a little perspective, in 1994 the numbers were 47% GOP and 46% Democrat.  Mind you, the poll today is of adults, not likely voters.

Miscellany

The USA Today/Gallup poll also shows Republicans narrowing the gap in party identification with Democrats.  28% consider themselves Republicans today, while 32% consider themselves Democrats.  The same poll found that 41% have a favorable view of the Democrats, while 42% have a favorable view of the Republicans.

Rasmussen's Party ID polling revealed the smallest partisan gap for his March polling since 2006.  This year, Rasmussen finds 32.9% of voters consider themselves Republicans, while 36.2% consider themselves Democrats.  In 2009 the split was 33.2/38.7, while in 2008 the split was 32.1/42.1.  The 3.1% gap between Republicans and Democrats for Q1 2010 is the smallest the gap has been since the first quarter of 2006. 

Finally, PPP polled various Missouri politicians.  It finds that Senator Claire McCaskill, who is up for re-election in 2012, has a 38% approval rating and a 51% disapproval rating.  Among Independents, she has a 33%/54% split; in 2006 she carried Independents 51%-43%.  Former Senator Jim Talent, whom McCaskill narrowly unseated in 2006, has a 38% favorable and a 32%  unfavorable rating.

PPP also polled the Governor and Lieutenant Governor.  Jay Nixon's honeymoon hasn't completely worn off.  37% approve of the job he's doing, 29% don't approve, and 34% have no opinion.  Lieutenant Governor Peter Kindler, a potential opponent for Nixon in 2012, has a 22%/18% approve/disapprove.  Those are some nice blank canvases for both politicians to draw on in two years.

A new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 3/30, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows perhaps another "mini-surge" for Ohio Democrats, with Gov. Ted Strickland (D) pulling to within just a point of Republican challenger John Kasich.

General Election Matchup
Kasich 46 (-3 vs. last poll, 3/4)
Strickland 45 (+7)
Und 7 (unch)

Strickland's job approval rating also improved to 47 percent from 43 percent earlier in March. His disapproval dipped just a point to 52 percent. Where's the movement? Rasmussen finds:

Strickland seems to have made his biggest gains this month among voters not affiliated with either major party. A month ago, Kasich led among these voters by nearly three-to-one. Now the Republican's lead among unaffiliateds is 49% to 40%.

Yesterday I opined that Missouri might not end up being a particularly competitive state by the time this election cycle winds up.  A spate of stories over the past few days demonstrate the decline of the Democrats' fortunes in the Show-Me state:

• Last election, Democrats nearly won the seat of Kenny Hulshof (MO-09).  Hulshof ran for Governor, and the district, which historically only sent Republicans to Congress in the biggest landslide years (1920, 1894), only began electing Republicans regularly in 1996, when Hulshof won the seat from Harold Volkmer (even in historically Democratic districts, constituents do not like their Congressman to remark that they are severely undertaxed).  Had 5,000 votes switched, it would have sent Democrat Judy Baker to Congress instead of Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer.  This year, Democrats failed to field a candidate to take on Luetkemeyer.

• In Missouri's Third Congressional District, Russ Carnahan finds himself in a fight for this district.  Although the district leans toward the Democrats (D+7), RealClearPolitics.com rates the race as "likely Democrat," given his opponent's strong fundraising.  At the end of the Fourth Quarter, Ed Martin had $335K cash-on-hand while Carnahan had $372K in the bank.

• In Missouri's Fourth Congressional District, near-octogenarian Ike Skelton likewise finds himself with a fight on his hands in a district he has held since 1976.  The district is heavily Republican (R+14), John McCain carried every county in 2008, and Hillary Clinton carried every county but one in the 2008 Missouri primary.  While the Armed Services Committee Chairman has a million dollars in the bank, two of his opponents have a quarter million on hand, which should be enough for either to get their message out in this inexpensive market.  Skelton hasn't had a tough race since the 1982 redistricting.  RCP rates the race as Leans Democrat.

• Democrats barely fielded 2/3 the number of candidates for office in Missouri as Republicans.

Obviously still a long road to November, but the playing field in November looks rough for Carnahan.

At Politics Nation this morning, Kyle and I take a look at the importance of the first quarter fundraising period for many campaigns as the filing deadline has now passed. As part of the story, we highlight five reports on the Senate side most worth watching. The list could be much longer, but here's our top 5:

** Marco Rubio (R-FL): At the end of 2009, the former Florida House Speaker had just caught up to Gov. Charlie Crist (R). Now he looks like the runaway favorite, and many expect his fundraising will match that polling surge. Crist had more than $7.5 million in the bank as of December 31, compared to $2 million for Rubio.

** Trey Grayson (R-KY): All of the Kentucky candidates are under the gun, with that state's primary just a month and a half away. Grayson had led Rand Paul at the end of the fourth quarter by about $100,000, but Paul has since jumped out to a significant lead in the polls. Grayson is taking a more aggressive posture in his TV campaigns, and will need the dollars to maintain that offensive against Paul's tea-party fueled effort. On the Democratic side, Dan Mongiardo had trailed Jack Conway by about $1 million, and needs a stronger showing to protect his lead.

** Reid Challengers (NV): For those certain of the Senate Majority Leader's pending demise, they need to remember that he had far more than all of his potential GOP challengers had raised combined at the end of 2009. In what is considered a lackluster field, a strong fundraising period could be enough for a candidate to start breaking from the pack.

** Jennifer Brunner (D-OH): The Ohio Secretary of State runs just as strong as Lee Fisher (D) against Rob Portman (R) in most polls, but her abysmal fundraising has many Buckeye State Democrats pressuring her to drop out. She seems determined to stay in through the May 4 primary, but with Portman waiting in the wings with a strong warchest, another weak FEC report could become a more prominent primary campaign issue.

** Senate Race Newcomers: A number of candidates, including some backed by the respective national committees, only entered the race in the past few months, and need strong early showings to demonstrate viability. Halter in Arkansas seems to have done that. Others who need to come out of the gate strong: Chris Coons (D-DE), Tom Cambpell (R-CA), Andrew Romanoff (D-CO), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Dan Coats (R-IN), Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), Cal Cunningham (D-NC).

Rasmussen has new numbers in the Arkansas Senate race (500 LVs, 3/30, MoE +/- 4.5%), and the news isn't good for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). She's launched several ads in the past month, but also been taking some heat on the airwaves from her new primary rival, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). The outcome: she slips further behind her potential GOP foes, and her unfavorable rating has climbed 9 points.

General Election Matchups
Hendren 51 (+8 vs. last poll, 3/1)
Lincoln 35 (-3)
Und 8 (-4)

Baker 51 (+6)
Lincoln 36 (-4)
Und 7 (-1)

Coleman 48 (+5)
Lincoln 36 (-5)
Und 8 (-2)

Holt 51 (+6)
Lincoln 35 (-3)
Und 7 (-3)

Boozman 51 (+3)
Lincoln 36 (-3)
Und 7 (unch)

The gap is narrower when Halter is the Democratic nominee, but largely because of a bigger pool of undecideds.

Hendren 42 (unch)
Halter 34 (-1)
Und 13 (-2)

Baker 44 (unch)
Halter 36 (-1)
Und 12 (+1)

Coleman 40 (+2)
Halter 37 (+2)
Und 13 (-5)

Holt 43 (+1)
Halter 34 (-4)
Und 14 (+2)

Boozman 48 (-4)
Halter 34 (+1)
Und 11 (+2)

Some other points from the survey: 28 percent of Arkansans say the health care plan passed by Congress will be good for the country, 60 percent say bad. Sixty-three percent favor an effort to repeal the bill. President Obama's job approval stands at 37 percent, while 61 percent disapprove of his performance. Gov. Mike Beebe (D), however, has a robust 74 percent approval rating, with just a quarter of the sample disapproving.