Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's exit from the Republican Party triggered an immediate and unsurprising reaction from the NRSC, which removed its endorsement of him and threw its support instead behind Marco Rubio.

"We can no longer support the candidacy of Governor Charlie Crist for the U.S. Senate," said every member of Republican Senate leadership in a joint statement. "The Governor said he has been 'listening to the people.' We hope he will listen to the thousands of Republican donors who will no doubt ask Governor Crist to return their donations. We will request full refunds ourselves and we plan to put our resources and support behind Marco Rubio."

The NRSC's endorsement of Crist had been in name only in recent months, as the committee realized its mistake backing a candidate in a competitive primary. The committee orginially endorsed Crist over Rubio because of the belief that Crist had the best chance to win the general election. At that point, no one could have guessed he wouldn't have even made it out of the primary.

Democratic statements in the immediate aftermath of Crist's announcement that he would run as an independent focused on a schism within the Republican Party.
(more...)

Senate

Arkansas: The DailyKos/Research 2000 poll was in the field at about the same time as Rasmussen was, and finds a very different race than  Rasmussen does.  R2K finds Blanche Lincoln leading Lt. Gov. Bill Halter by eight points, just a few weeks before the May 18 primary.   If Lincoln doesn't get to 50%, she faces a runoff three weeks later.

But R2K also finds that Lincoln makes it up to 40% against her opponents, and that Halter is within a few points of his opponents.  Of course, this assumes an electorate that is 33%R, 38%D, when in 2008 it was 32%R, 36%D.  A more Democratic 2010 electorate seems . . . unlikely.

Indiana: One of the marquee Senate races will  be the race to replace Evan Bayh,  who is retiring.   SurveyUSA finds that former Senator Dan Coats leads the primary.  What's interesting is the solid support for conservative state Senator Marlin Stutzman,  who has earned the support of a good chunk of the rightroots.  In the general election, Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth remains mired at around 35%, where he's been all cycle, although the Republicans are in  the 40s.  Still, it's pretty hard to see what his roadmap to victory is.

Nevada:  Rasmussen and R2K  also went head-to-head in the Nevada Senate race.  Rasmussen  finds that "chicken-gate" hasn't helped Harry Reid out all that much in the Senate race -- it's brought Lowden down a couple of points, but Reid hasn't improved.  His numbers are similar against his other two  potential  GOP  opponents.  Research 2000, by contrast, sees a single-digit race, although Reid still trails.

Ohio:  Quinnipiac has two polls showing Republican Rob Portman trailing both of his potential Democratic opponents (to be narrowed down to a single opponent on Tuesday).  But there's been very little movement since last month's iteration of the poll, and Q does tend to show worse results for Republicans, in part because it is a poll of registered voters, rather than likely voters.  The President's approval numbers are around 45% in the Buckeye State, with 50% disapproving, a slight improvement from his February numbers (but a slight worsening since March).

If healthcare reform and the President's overall approval are really underwater, it gets hard to see how Fisher wins.  But Portman has extensive ties to the Bush Administration, and was its OMB director as well as its trade director,  both of which should provide ample ammunition in this rust belt state.

Arizona Primary:  PPP (D) is finding that John McCain holds an 11-point lead over former Congressman JD Hayworth.   The million-dollar question here is whether PPP/DailyKos are picking up on the same surge in conservative interest that Rasmussen is picking up on.   If they're missing something, the septugenarian could be in trouble.  If Rasmussen is missing something, he should be in okay shape.

Governor

Ohio:  Quinnipiac also shows John Kasich trailing Governor Ted Strickland by 6, again unchanged from last month's polling.  This race has clearly tightened, as Strickland has been hammering Kasich over his ties to Lehman Bros.  But Strickland is still an incumbent averaging 43% in the polls, which is a pretty tenuous position to find onesself in.

Oregon:  Former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber seems to give the Democrats Republicans a pretty good shot at taking back the Governor's mansion against a fairly pedestrian group of GOP candidates.  But former Trail Blazer Chris Dudley keeps the former Governor down to 41%, tying him.   Against the other GOP candidates,  but Kitzhaber and current Secretary of State Bill  Bradbury approach  50%.

Of course, this is more an issue of Dudley taking Kitzhaber/Bradbury supporters and converting them to undecideds than it is a surge of support for the center.  But it still gives him as good a shot as any at keeping the seat.  Republicans should hope that his political skills are better than his free throw shooting skills.

The left and right each have new polls to point to today in the Nevada Senate contest. A new Rasmussen survey again paints a bleak picture for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, while a Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos has him within the margin of error of potential GOP foes. One potential reason -- Research 2000 includes Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjuan, while Rasmussen does not.

General Election Matchups -- Rasmussen
(500 LVs, 4/27, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Lowden (R) 52 (-2 vs. last poll, 3/31)
Reid (D) 39 (unch)
Und 3 (+1)

Tarkanian (R) 51 (+2)
Reid (D) 41 (-1)
Und 4 (+2)

Angle (R) 48 (-3)
Reid (D) 40 (unch)
Und 4 (+1)

General Election Matchups -- Research 2000
(600 LVs, 4/26-28, MoE +/- 4%)
Lowden (R) 45 -- Reid (D) 41 -- Ashjuan (TP) 4 -- Und 6
Tarkanian (R) 43 -- Reid (D) 41 -- Ashjuan (TP) 6 -- Und 6
Angle (R) 44 -- Reid (D) 41 -- Ashjuan (TP) 5 -- Und 6

Research 2000 also tests the GOP primary, and finds Lowden ahead with 38 percent, followed by Tarkanian at 28 percent and Angle at 13 percent.

RCP currently classifies the race as Lean Republican.

The final British debate starts in less than an hour and all eyes will be on Gordon Brown, who suffered through one of the worst days in recent memory for any politician on the planet.  What's striking is how much Brown's comment - caught on mic calling a sixty-six year old lifetime Labour voter a "sort of bigoted woman" as his car sped away after an impromptu discussion involving immigration - is how much Brown's comment resembles then candidate Obama's "bitter cling" gaffe during the 2008 campaign.

You'll recall that Obama too was caught on tape in what he thought was a private conversation, pyschoanalyzing rural Pennsylvania voters before a well to do San Francisco fundraising audience. In both cases there's an unmistakable whiff of members of the left wing elite looking down with contempt upon the common citizen whom they hope to govern.

Another interesting parallel is that Brown's harsh judgment of Gillian Duffy came in response to her question about immigration, though the question wasn't bigoted in the least.  A few thousand miles away the reaction to Arizona's new immigration law from the left has been just as swift and severe. It's been likened to "terrorism of the innocent" (Jesse Jackson), "akin to apartheid" (Yvette Clark, David Zirin) and, of course, Nazi Germany (too numerous to cite).

That's not necessarily the response you'd expect to a law that takes its language straight from existing federal immigration statutes. As Byron York pointed out the other day:

"Since the 1940s, federal law has required non-citizens who are in the United States permanently to carry on their person, at all times, the official documents proving that they are here legally -- green card, work visa, etc. That has been the law for 70 years, and the new Arizona law does not change it."

But Arizona voters overwhelmingly approve of the action taken by the state legislature. This offends the sensibilities of progressives. Therefore it's not enough to debate the issue on the merits, the law and its supporters have to be demonized with over the top rhetoric and smears of racism.

This certainly doesn't help the political debate, and I would argue it doesn't really help progressives either since most people who aren't hardcore partisans find themselves in the middle, wanting to see immigration laws enforced  and the border secured, but done in a way that's even handed and compassionate towards folks who are here illegally.

A new Survey USA poll conducted for the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne shows former Sen. Dan Coats with a double-digit lead in Tuesday's GOP primary.

Primary Election Matchup
(407 LVs, 4/22-26, MoE +/- 5%)
Coats 36
Hostettler 24
Stutzman 18
Bates 6
Behney 4
Und 13

In general election matchups, any of the three main Republican hopefuls runs ahead of the Democratic candidate, Rep. Brad Ellsworth.

General Election Matchups
(1,250 LVs, 4/22-26, MoE +/- 2.8%)
Coats 47 -- Ellsworth 31 -- Und 22
Hostettler 45 -- Ellsworth 32 -- Und 23
Stutzman 41 -- Ellsworth 35 -- Und 25

RCP currently classifies the race as Lean Republican.

Just over a third of Indiana voters -- 34 percent -- approve of President Obama's job performance, while 57 percent disapprove.

Former Arizona Rep. J.D. Hayworth will need the support of more moderates to knock off incumbent Sen. John McCain in the Aug. 24 GOP primary, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds (April 23-25, 387 GOP LV, MoE +/- 5%).

Although McCain loses conservatives to Hayworth by a 38%-46% margin, 60% of moderates support McCain and just 15% back Hayworth.

McCain 46
Hayworth 35
Deakin 7

McCain holds a 14.3-point lead in the RCP Average

Rep. Joe Sestak, a retired Navy Admiral, is running for the Democratic nomination in the Pennsylvania Senate race. With the primary just three weeks away, Sestak finds himself down in the polls against incumbent Arlen Specter, who switched from the Republican Party a year ago.

In a new TV ad, veterans speak out in defense of Sestak's military record, which was questioned in a recent Specter ad.

The 30-second Sestak ad goes on the air today.

Writing on the HorseRaceBlog, Jay Cost documents the myriad challenges associated with trying to predict midterm elections.

Kyle Trygstad writes that the with the GOP facing fundraising gaps in several southern races, the party will have to win races in places where Democrats have been successful in the last two election cycles if it hopes to win back control of the House this year.

On RCM, Diana Furchtgott-Roth, writing about Ben Wildavsky's new book, The Great Brain Race, argues that America needs to reform its immigration laws to ensure top students from around the world can stay in the U.S. after they finish school.

On RCS, Jeff Neuman writes that after the shocking collapse of the Washington Capitals, the city will turn its attention to the Nationals and the arrival of Stephen Strasburg.

Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley has emerged as Republicans' best chance to win the Oregon governor's race, a new Rasmussen survey finds (April 26, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4%). He's picked up ground in the last two months, while Democrats John Kitzhaber, a former governor, and former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury have remained stagnant.

The Dems lead the other two Republicans tested, former state Sen. John Lim and former Pixelworks CEO Allen Alley.

Dudley 41 - Kitzhaber 41 - Und 13

Dudley 40 - Bradbury 40 - Und 13

Kitzhaber 48 - Alley 33 - Und 13

Bradbury 43 - Alley 34 - Und 16

Kitzhaber 50 - Lim 34 - Und 12

Bradbury 44 - Lim 32 - Und 15

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats holding onto small leads in both the Governor's race and the Senate race. In the Governor's contest, incumbent Ted Strickland's lead over Republican John Kasich remains basically unchanged over the last month:

Strickland (D) 44 (+1 vs. last poll 3/31)
Kasich (R) 38 (nc)
Undecided 17 (nc)

In the Senate race, Demcrats Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner hold small leads over Republican Rob Portman. (As reported yesterday, Quinnipiac shows Fisher with a big 17-point lead over Brunner in the Democratic primary.) Fisher's lead is effectively unchanged from last month, while Brunner has ticked up a tad.

Fisher (D) 40 (-1)
Portman (R) 37 (nc)
Undecided 21 (nc)

Brunner (D) 40 (+2)
Portman (R) 36 (-1)
Undecided 21 (-2)

Lastly, some interesting readings on President Obama:

- Obama's approval rating ticked back down this month to 45/50 from 47/48 last month.

- Overall, 44% say Obama's a better President than George W. Bush, while 34% think the opposite. The question breaks along partisan lines, but Independents are evenly split 38 to 37, with 22% saying Obama is "about the same" as Bush.

- Only 39% approve of Obama's handling of health care, while 55% disapprove. Identical numbers approve/disapprove of the federal health care overhaul, yet voters still give Obama a slight edge over Republicans on who they trust to handle the issue (44/40).

- 42% appprove of Obama's handling of the economy, 55% disapprove. Among Independents the split is 33/63.

- 45% say they'd like to see the next Senator from Ohio support Obama's policies, while 48% say they want him or her to oppose Obama. Again, focusing just on Independents: a mere 36% want support for Obama while 55% want to see their next Senator oppose his policies.

The survey was conducted April 21 – 26 among 1,568 registered Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.