Rep. Paul Hodes (D) now trails all three of his potential rivals in the New Hampshire Senate race, a new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 4/7, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds.

General Election Matchups
Ayotte (R) 50 (+3 vs. last poll, 3/8)
Hodes (D) 35 (-2)
Und 11 (-1)

Lamontagne (R) 44 (+6)
Hodes (D) 39 (-3)
Und 11 (-4)

Binnie (R) 49 (+3)
Hodes (D) 37 (+1)
Und 10 (-4)

Hodes' health care vote may be one leading factor in his decline. Only 38 percent of New Hampshire voters say the health care legislation is good for the country, while 53 percent say it's bad. A strong majority, 58 percent, say they'd support a repeal effort, while 38 percent oppose.

President Obama's job rating has improved slightly, however -- 49 percent approve while 50 percent disapprove, up from a 48-52 split last month.

AP is reporting that John Paul Stevens, the longest-serving justice on the Supreme Court, will retire at the end of this term.

Stevens began signaling a possible retirement last summer when he hired just one of his usual complement of four law clerks for the next court term. He acknowledged in several interviews that he was contemplating stepping down and would certainly do so during Obama's presidency.

The timing of his announcement leaves ample time for the White House to settle on a successor and Senate Democrats, who control 59 votes, to conduct confirmation hearings and a vote. Republicans have not ruled out an attempt to delay confirmation.

The leading candidates to replace Stevens are Solicitor General Elena Kagan, 49, and federal appellate Judges Merrick Garland, 57, and Diane Wood, 59.

The White House had been anticipating at least one opening on the bench after this term. Sonia Sotomayor was confirmed rather easily despite some initial controversy over her "wise Latina" comments. But recent history has shown, as I wrote earlier this week at Politics Nation, that confirmation of a president's second appointment often has been more turbulent. And given that Democrats don't have a filibuster-proof majority as they had last year, count on Republicans prepping for more of a fight.

Since Rasmussen last polled in Washington a month ago, Sen. Patty Murray (D) has retaken a lead over potential challenger Dino Rossi (R). But she's lost ground to some other announced candidates, and fails to pass the 50 percent mark against any Republican.

General Election Matchups
(500 LVs, 4/6, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Murray 48 (+2 vs. last poll, 3/9)
Rossi 46 (-3)
Und 4 (+2)

Murray 48 (unch)
Benton 40 (+3)
Und 8 (-4)

Murray 47 (-2)
Didier 37 (+7)
Und 11 (-4)

Murray 46 (-1)
Widener 37 (+5)
Und 12 (-4)

Murray 45 (no trend)
Akers 37
Und 13

Washingtonians are evenly split on health care legislation, with 45 percent each saying it would be good and bad for the country. Fifty-one percent would favor a repeal effort, while 47 percent oppose it.

President Obama's job approval rating has jumped 4 points in a month, and now stands at 54 percent with 43 percent disapproving. Gov. Christine Gregoire (D), who defeated Rossi twice, also saw a bump in approval, from 40 percent to 44 percent this month.

Rasmussen is the latest pollster to show Alexi Giannoulias (D) on a downward trajectory in the Illinois Senate race.

General Election Matchup
Kirk 41 (unch vs. last poll, 3/8)
Giannoulias 37 (-7)
Und 13 (+3)

A poll yesterday from Rasmussen showed Democrat Pat Quinn trailing in the gubernatorial race as well, with just 38 percent. The fact that the two Democrats at the top of the ticket in President Obama's adopted home surely doesn't bode well for the rest of the Democratic slate. Obama does have a 58 percent approval rating there, 5th-highest among the states Rasmussen has polled recently.

But 44 percent of Illinois voters now view Giannoulias unfavorably, as the struggles of his family bank have become more widely known. Meanwhile, the state narrowly supports the Obama health care law, 48 percent saying it's good and 44 percent saying it's bad for the country.

Via the AP and Detroit News, Rep. Bart Stupak is set to announce his retirement tonight.  Stupak's district -- which includes Michigan's Upper Peninsula but now extends down into the "glove" mitten -- leans Republican (it is R+3), and Stupak narrowly won it from a tarnished GOP Representative in 1992.  Republicans have a couple of candidates, and surgeon Dan Benishek raised some money after Stupak's health care vote, but the Republicans will doubtless try to get a candidate with a higher profile to enter the race before the May 11 filing deadline.  Regardless, this is a good GOP pickup opportunity.

Earlier today I referenced the FoxNews poll showing Republicans having nearly as favorable an image as the Democrats.  Gallup follows up on this with a poll showing a similar result.  The Democrats are viewed favorably by 41% of the populace, which is the lowest number for that party in the 18-year history of Gallup's polling.  It represents a nearly 10-point decrease since Gallup last polled this past summer.

Not everything is chocolate candy and kittens for the Republicans.  True, they pulled ahead of the Democrats for the first time since President Bush was re-elected, but they are still viewed favorably by only 42% of the electorate.  It does, however, represent a 7-point improvement for Republicans over last summer.

Probably the most disturbing thing for the upcoming midterms is the party's 17-point drop among Independents; Republicans now hold a 6-point edge with that key subgroup.  In November 2008, Democrats had a 16-point edge.

President

In Rasmussen, the President is back down to a 47/53 split, with a 28/42 strongly approve/strongly disapprove rating.  We'll see if he's testing recent lows, or if he's still oscillating around 48%/49%.

Gallup likewise showed some tightening, to 49/46.  Again, I suspect this is just oscillation around 48% or so, but we'll only know for certain with time.

Fox News -- which honestly doesn't have a heavily anti-Obama house effect as a polling outfit -- shows the President upside-down in his approval rating of registered voters, his lowest to date.  As per usual, his numbers below the toplines are horrendous:  42% on the economy, 41% on Iran, 40% on jobs, 40% on health care, and 31% on the federal deficit.  His only positives are on terrorism and Afghanistan, where he's at 50% and 49%.

There's a lot more in this poll to unpack, which I'll do in the miscellaneous section.

Senate

Pennsylvania:  Quinnipiac shows Senator Arlen Specter at 41%, trailing Republican Pat Toomey by five points.  Toomey leads by 3.5 in the RCP average.  This is the worst showing for Specter this cycle.  Specter leads Toomey in Allegheny County and in Philly (his old base), and has a sizeable advantage in the northeastern portion of the state (Toomey's old base).  Toomey makes this up in the Philly suburbs and exurbs, the Erie area, and the Southwest (historically a Democratic bastion).  The balance probably lies with the state's undecided Independents; Independents who have made up their mind break 46%-38% for Toomey.  Interestingly, Toomey is leading among union households, which seems odd at first blush for a Club for Growth guy.  The President's approval rating is upside down in the Keystone state.

Colorado:  Rasmussen polled various matchups in the Colorado Senate race, and found Republicans leading all of them.  There's some good news for Democrats, in that Senator Michael Bennet has closed the gap somewhat, but it will still be a tough slog in a state where the President is upside-down at a 42%/57% level.  In the most likely matchup -- Norton/Bennet, Norton lead by 1.4% in the RCP average, though she's only trailed in one poll, commissioned by DailyKos.

Missouri:  Rasmussen likewise found little movement in the Missouri Senate race.  Both Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan are up a point, with Blunt leading 48%-42%.  The President is at 40%/59%, and less than a third of Missouri voters see the health plan as good for the country.  Again, it is hard to see how Carnahan wins in this environment; but there's no guarantee that the environment won't improve.  Blunt leads by 2.3% in the RCP average.

Governor

Pennsylvania:  A relatively quiet day in gubernatorial polling.  Quinnipiac, like most other pollsters, shows Tom Corbett leading against all four of his prospective Democratic opponents.  None of them are particularly well known, even though the primary is just around the corner.  We'll be able to analyze this race better when the field is knocked down to one Democrat, since all four have different strengths and weaknesses.

Illinois:  Rasmussen Reports polled the Illinois Governor's race, and found that Bill Brady leads Pat Quinn by seven points.  This is consistent with yesterday's PPP polling, and is not good news for the Democrat.

Miscellaneous

The Fox poll really is worth browsing through in its entireity, but one thing sticks out:  Republicans and Democrats have virtually identical favorables.  This is not the first poll showing this, and if it sticks, it is a major problem for the Democratic party, which had counted on the tarnished Republican brand to help mitigate losses in the Fall.

A statement from Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) Senate campaign:

“Instead of being open and honest with voters and owning up to the thousands of dollars that remain unaccounted for from his political committees and releasing his tax returns, the Rubio campaign would prefer to spread baseless rumors.

“To put these rumors to rest once and for all, as we have said countless times before, Governor Crist is running for the United States Senate as a Republican. He will not run as an Independent or as a No Party Affiliation.

“The Governor is proud of his conservative credentials and stands firmly behind the principles of limited government and more personal freedom, the bedrock values of the Republican Party. He is proud to be a member of the Party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan.

“This should completely and utterly put to rest any of the unfounded rumors coming from the Rubio campaign that Governor Crist would run as anything other than the Republican that he is."

Rasmussen's latest survey of Missouri (500 LVs, 4/6, MoE +/- 4.5%) sees no major shift in the open seat Senate race between Rep. Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D).

General Election Matchup
Blunt 48 (+1 vs. last poll, 3/9)
Carnahan 42 (+1)
Und 7 (-1)

Blunt leads by 2.3 in the RCP Average.

President Obama's job rating also holds steady at 40 percent approve, 59 percent disapprove. Less than a third of Missouri voters say the health care plan passed last month is good for the country, while 56 percent say it's bad; 59 percent would support a repeal effort.

... in the California Senate primary contains no sheep, regular or demon.