The results in Florida-19 are a mixed bag for Democrats.  Obviously in the big picture, its a win, which is what ultimately matters.  Democrat Ted Deutch defeated Republican Ed Lynch handily, 62%-35%.  This was off the margins by which Robert Wexler typically won the district and by which Barack Obama and John Kerry carried the district, but not by much.  In races for Virginia Governor, New Jersey Governor, Massachusetts Senate, and California's Tenth District, the Democrats had all run about ten points behind Barack Obama.   So to run only four points behind Obama is a good thing.  It's even better news for Democrats when you consider that, in this heavily elderly, heavily Jewish district, we might expect concerns about ObamaCare and Obama's attitude toward Israel to manifest heavily.  But they didn't.

But there are some odd things in the results.  In 2008, Wexler carried Palm Beach County, 67%-27%, and Broward County 65%-27%.  This year, Deutch carried Palm Beach County 64%-33%.  But his margin dropped significantly in the Palm Beach segment of the district, to 54%-43%. I'm not 100% certain what caused the disparity.  I think it's probably because Deutch's Senate district is based in Palm Beach County, and the district was more of a Palm Beach district under the 1992 districting (when Deutch's father represented the area), thus establishing more of a unique "brand" in the area.  But I'm not certain.

In any event, what this race was always about, in my mind, was the neighboring 22nd district.  There, Ron Klein represents a Congressional district that is much more Republican, and is much more evenly divided between the two counties.  If Klein suffers a 2-3% dropoff in Palm Beach County, and an10-11% dropoff in Broward County, it becomes very difficult for him to win.  And if Deutch's losses in Palm Beach County were mitigated by his family name, then Klein could be in a world of hurt.  Still, in the short term and absent a better explanation for the Palm Beach County results, this is good news for the Democrats.

Retired energy executive Bill Flores won the Republican primary runoff Tuesday and will face Rep. Chet Edwards (D) in the general election for Texas's 17th Congressional District.

The well-funded Flores defeated 2008 nominee Rob Curnock by a wide 64%-36% margin. Through March 24, Flores had outspent Curnock $755,000 to $155,000. He had $63,000 left to spend in the remaining weeks to Curnock's $16,000.

In November 2008, despite being outspent by $2 million ($2.1 million to $100,000), Curnock held Edwards to just a 53%-46% victory.

The Waco-based district votes heavily Republican in presidential elections, giving John McCain 67% and George W. Bush 70% in 2004.

Edwards is running for his 11th term in office. While his voting record puts him in the middle of the House, the National Republican Congressional Committee indicated in a memo tonight that it plans to tie him to Democratic leadership in Washington:

"In a year when House Democrats are running to separate themselves from their radical leadership, Edwards will have a tough time defending his near-constant support of their agenda in the general."

With 51 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press called the special election in Florida's 19th Congressional District for Democrat Ted Deutch. At the time, Deutch led Republican Ed Lynch 61% - 36%, with independent Jim McCormick taking just 3%.

Deutch replaces former liberal Rep. Robert Wexler, who left Congress earlier this year to head up the Center for Middle East Peace. The district, which includes parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties, gave both Wexler and President Obama 66% of the vote.

The outcome was not unexpected, as neither party decided to use valuable financial resources on this lopsided district.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen distributed a congratulatory press release at 9:30 p.m. "With his support for health insurance reform and his commitment to creating jobs, protecting Social Security, and ensuring security and peace for Israel, Congressman-elect Deutch will be a great asset to our Democratic Caucus," he said.

President:

No major movements in the two tracking polls. Obama improved slightly (a point) in the Rasmussen poll and moved back to breaking even in Gallup.

CNN's poll of adults has the President at 51%/47% approve-disapprove, up from their mid-March polling. In CNN's polls, it appears the President has enjoyed a slight bump in the polls post-health care reform, which is consistent with other polling.

Senate

Pennsylvania Senate Primary: I'll go out of my traditional order here, because this is, to paraphrase the Veep, a big frickin' deal. Just three weeks before Election Day, Joe Sestak has closed the gap against Arlen Specter to just two points. Mind you, this is the only poll showing the lead in single digits (much less two points), and Rasmussen has typically found a closer race than other pollsters. But Specter is usually toying with the 50% mark, and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see undecideds break heavily for the Congressman.  Specter leads by 15.5% in the RCP Average.

I suspect this is bad news for Pat Toomey, because I think Sestak would be harder to defeat than Arlen Specter, whom many Democrats probably would have a hard time pulling the lever for in the end.

Connecticut: Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has been all but anointed the next Senator from Connecticut, but his numbers are starting to decline. He leads WWE Empress Linda McMahon 55%-35%, and former Congressman Rob Simmons 52%-38%. These are still substantial leads, but they're the lowest for the AG in four ballot tests by Rasmussen. Rasmussen is the only one who's polled this race recently, so we'll see if others find similar results.

Louisiana: Rasmussen finds that Senator David Vitter, who answered Republicans' questions about “Can it really get worse after this Larry Craig thing?” in a way they didn't like, is an okay bet for re-election. He leads Charlie Melancon 52%-36% in Rasmussen's polling, and by 13% in the RCP average.  Adult entertainer Stormy Daniel is still considering the race, and is set to announce on Thursday.

New York: Quinnipiac finds that former Governor George Pataki is still the GOP's best bet to take on Kirsten Gillibrand, but he hasn't decided what he's going to do just yet. He leads the appointee 45%-40%, and leads by 2.8% in the RCP average.

But Quinnipiac is now the second polling company to find Gillibrand below 50% against ex-Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman, a declared candidate. While she still leads him by a comfortable margin (47%-25%), he's hardly known by anyone, so it can't be comforting to the Senator to know that majorities are at least considering him.

Rasmussen polled Gillibrand against “generic Republican,” and found her leading by point.My first reaction is that this isn't particularly good news for Gillibrand.  My second reaction is that "generic Republican” might be better than what the New York GOP can scrape together.

Kentucky Senate Primary: SurveyUSA has been quiet this polling season, but it has polled on the Kentucky Senate race. It finds that Ron Paul's son, Rand, is leading Secretary of State Trey Grayson 45%-30% in the Kentucky Primary, and that Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo is leading Attorney General Jack Conway 35%-32%. The primary is May 18. Paul leads by 15.3 points in the RCP average, while Mongiardo leads by 5 in the RCP average. This is the best showing for Conway in a while, so keep an eye on this.

Democrats are salivating at the chance to run against Paul, but in this year it doesn't seem to make a difference; Paul is leading both Democrats by double digits in most polling.

North Carolina Senate Primary: Senator Richard Burr is the only Republican incumbent looking particularly vulnerable this season. Three weeks before election day, PPP finds that “undecided” is leading the Democratic primary to face him. Elaine Marshall gets 23% to 17% for Cal Cunningham. We'll probably get a general election poll in the next few days. Burr hasn't done anything particularly wrong, but the state seems to be gradually trending Democratic, and Burr isn't a dynamic presence. Marshall has led in every poll this year.

Governor

New Hampshire: I think I missed this one yesterday, but Governor John Lynch of New Hampshire is starting to look a little bit shaky. There's three matchups, but against former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen, Lynch's lead is down to 47%-37%. Against the other two lesser-known candidates, the Governor, who typically enjoys a 143% approval rating, is barely at 50%. Putting this on the watch list.

New York: Oh goodie. More New York Governor polls. Quinnipiac finds Andrew Cuomo wiping the floor with every potential Republican, with none of the Republicans breaking 30% of the vote. This might develop into something, but for right now, this is one of the few races where the Democrats can feel pretty confident.

House

Gallup released its weekly House tracking, and it is not good news for the Democrats. Among registered voters, the Republicans lead the Democrats 48%-44%. This approaches the largest lead the Republicans have ever had on the generic ballot. This stands in sharp contrast to the 23-point deficit Gallup was sometimes reporting Republicans suffering during the later Bush years. Gallup also shows Republican enthusiasm exceeding Democratic enthusiasm by about the same margin it has all year long.

CNN also polled the generic ballot, and found Democrats leading Republicans among registered voters by four points, 50%-46%. This represents a four point improvement for the Democrats over what CNN had found in previous polling.

Finally, Rasmussen polled the generic ballot and found Republicans leading Democrats 45%-36%. This is consistent with their other polling, and represents a devastating scenario for Democrats. Republicans won nationally by five points in 1994.

A Rasmussen survey (April 7, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) released over the weekend found third term Gov. John Lynch (D) up double digits over three potential Republican opponents -- Karen Testerman, Jack Kimball and John Stephen.

If Lynch is elected to a fourth straight term he'll become the first governor to do so since the state set gubernatorial terms at two years in 1880.

Lynch 50
Testerman 33
Und 11

Lynch 50
Kimball 34
Und 12

Lynch 47
Stephen 37
Und 11

Rasmussen Reports polled the Pennsylvania Senate Primary, and found that Congressman Joe Sestak is closing the gap on Arlen Specter.  The poll was taken April 12, 2010, among 500 LVs, MOE +/- 4.5%

Arlen Specter -- 44%
Joe Sestak -- 42%

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) kicked off his re-election campaign this past weekend, a race that promises to be one of the more intriguing of the 2010 gubernatorial sweepstakes.

Watching this video of one of Patrick's first re-election rallies, it's hard not to think his message sounds like a preview for what you might hear from President Obama in two years.

Indeed, some of the Obama brain trust was involved in the 2006 Patrick race, and David Plouffe is advising Patrick this year. You might even remember the mini controversy in 2008 when Obama admitted he and Patrick often "traded" ideas.

New ad from Dan Coats in Indiana:

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll tests some 2012 general election matchups for the first time, and finds that President Obama leads four potential foes: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee.

2012 Presidential General Election Matchup
(907 RVs, 4/9-11, MoE +/- 3.5%)
Obama 53 -- Romney 45
Obama 54 -- Huckabee 45
Obama 55 -- Palin 42
Obama 55 -- Gingrich 43

In a hypothetical national test of the GOP primary, Huckabee has jumped ahead of Romney as the frontrunner.

2012 Presidential Primary Election Matchup
(498 Republicans, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Huckabee 24 (+7 vs. last poll, 3/19-21)
Romney 20 (-2)
Palin 15 (-3)
Gingrich 14 (+6)
Paul 8 (unch)
Santorum 3 (-2)
Pawlenty 2 (-3)
Pence 2 (-2)
Barbour 1 (unch)

After the jump, see favorable ratings for these and other political leaders.
(more...)

Michael Sneed reports that the Census Bureau has some folks hopping mad for outsourcing the production of its promo gear to China, Bangladesh, and Haiti.