Cathy Young tries to answer the question in a great piece on RCP today.

When the Las Vegas Review-Journal published results of its latest Mason Dixon poll earlier this week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's campaign complained that the survey didn't present an accurate picture of where the race really stood, since it did not include other independent candidates and Nevada's peculiar "none of these" option on the ballot.

Well, today the pollster and the paper have a new poll (625 RVs, 4/13-14, MoE +/- 4%) that includes those options, and finds little different from their initial survey.

General Election Matchup
Lowden (R) 47
Reid (D) 37
Fasano (IAP) 3
Ashjian (TP) 2
Harris (I) --
Holland (I) --
Reaves (I) --
Stand (I) --
None of these 3
Und 8

Reid only trailed Lowden by 8 in that more confined ballot test. So this survey would seem to deflate his campaign's complaints.

"The bottom line is that adding all these minor candidates won't really bleed support away exclusively from the Republican," Mason Dixon's Brad Coker told the paper. "They're not really bleeding much support from either candidate, Reid or Lowden, and if they do siphon off votes, it'll probably be about half and half."

After his speech at the Kennedy Space Center today, President Obama headed to Miami for a pair of fundraisers expected to bring in $2.5 million for the DNC. Speaking at one of those events, the president made a Tax Day defense of his administration's policies and claimed to be "amused" by the tea party rallies occurring nationwide today. From a pool report:

On tax day, he show cases the tax cuts in the stimulus plan, other tax break, and refusal to raise taxes on people making less than $250,000 a year.

"So I've been amused in recent days by these people having rallies," he said to laughter. "I think they should be saying thank you." Big applause, and calls of "Thank you" from the crowd.

Full pool report available after the jump.

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A new survey from Research 2000 for the Daily Kos finds the Arkansas Senate race remarkably stable, despite a slew of ads in the Democratic primary between incumbent Blanche Lincoln and challenger Bill Halter. Lincoln still leads Halter in that primary, but trails all potential November foes.

Primary Election Matchup (400 LVs, 5% MoE)
Lincoln 45 (+1 vs. last poll, 3/22-24)
Halter 33 (+2)
Other 6 (nt)
Und 16 (-9)

General Election Matchups
Boozman 50 (+1) -- Lincoln 43 (+1) -- Und 7 (-2)
Hendren 49 (+1) -- Lincoln 42 (-1) -- Und 9 (unch)
Baker 48 (-1) -- Lincoln 41 (unch) -- Und 11 (+1)
Coleman 46 (-1) -- Lincoln 43 (-1) -- Und 11 (+2)
Cox 46 (-1) -- Lincoln 43 (unch) -- Und 11 (+1)

Boozman 48 (unch) -- Halter 41 (+1) -- Und 11 (-1)
Hendren 46 (+1) -- Halter 43 (-1) -- Und 11 (unch)
Baker 45 (-1) -- Halter 43 (-1) -- Und 12 (+2)
Halter 44 (-1) -- Coleman 43 (-1) -- Und 13 (+2)
Halter 44 (-1) -- Cox 43 (unch) -- Und 13 (+1)

In a sign that he's poised to abandon the Republican primary for Senate, Gov. Charlie Crist (?-FL) today vetoed Senate Bill 6, an education bill that had broad support among Republicans including former Gov. Jeb Bush (R), but was vehemently opposed by Democrats and teacher groups.

In reporting on his potential independent run, the AP had laid out the significance of a looming veto:

A veto would also drive many conservative Republicans further away from Crist, who spent part of his morning Wednesday monitoring a Senate committee vote to confirm two of his appointments to the Public Service Commission. One of his agency heads had failed to win Senate confirmation Tuesday.

The education bill (SB 6) has been the gorilla in the living room since its stealth passage nearly a week ago. It's a priority for Republican legislative leaders and also former Gov. Jeb Bush, whose governing priorities have surfaced prominently in Capitol hallways all session.

The National Republican Congressional Committee dropped an ad today in the Wisconsin district of Democratic Rep. David Obey, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. The ad debuts today, Tax Day, and ties Obey to "an overwhelming national debt" and states that he's responsible "for a Niagara Falls of money flowing out of Washington."

"Who can you hold accountable? How about the architect for Obama's spending, David Obey," the announcer states. "Obama's spending gets Obey's stamp of approval."

Despite the Democratic lean of his district (Obama won 56% in the 7th District)Obey is facing a legitimate challenge from Republican Sean Duffy, the Ashland County district attorney and a former "Real World" cast member (so is his wife).

Still, Obey, who's been in office since winning a special election in April 1969, will be difficult to defeat. His lowest re-election winning percentage came in the Republican year of 1994 -- 54% -- while he has regularly won with more than 60%.

Utah Sen. Bob Bennett may be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country, and strangely enough it's because of the fact that he represents one of the most Republican states in the country. Conservatives from around the country, including Club for Growth, have put a bull's-eye on Bennett, but a new Rasmussen poll (April 8, 620 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4%) finds he's in pretty good shape so far.

In a crowded primary, Bennett's top competitors -- attorney Mike Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater -- garner just 14%, 23 points behind Bennett. Others tested were former Rep. Merrill Cook and businesswoman Cherilyn Eagar.

Bennett 37
Lee 14
Bridgewater 14
Cook 6
Eagar 4

While this is certainly a good sign for Bennett, his path to re-election remains rocky. The first test is the May 8 state party convention, where delegates will vote for a nominee. If no one receives 60%, the top two finishers will face off in a June 22 primary.

An internal poll from Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D) campaign shows her comfortably ahead in the Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). But a second poll of Arkansas Democrats shows a closer result in the May 18 vote.

Benenson Strategy Group Poll
(650 LVs, 4/5-7)
Lincoln 53 -- Halter 35 -- Morrison 4 -- Und 8

In a two-way race, Lincoln's lead is 54-40 over Halter. The Benenson Group polls for the White House and DNC.

Talk Business/Zata3 (D) Poll
(1,167 LVs, 4/13, MoE +/- 3%)
Lincoln 38 -- Halter 31 -- Morrison 10 -- Und 20

The Talk Business poll also tested the Republican primary (1,357 LVs, MoE +/- 3%).

Boozman 46
Baker 14
Holt 8
Coleman 5
Alexander 3
Hendren 3
Reynolds 3

With talk of an independent bid by Gov. Charlie Crist (R) heating up yet again, a new Quinnipiac poll (1,250 RVs, 4/8-13, MoE +/- 2.8%) tests the hypothetical three way race with Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek. The result: Crist has a slight edge.

Hypothetical General Election Matchup
Crist (I) 32 -- Rubio (R) 30 -- Meek (D) 24

In that ballot test Crist wins 30 percent of the Republican vote and 27 percent of the Democratic vote. Independents favor the governor -- 38 percent would back him, 29 percent back Rubio and 15 percent back Meek.

Crist has until April 30 to file as an independent candidate, something his campaign seemed to definitively rule out last week but which reports indicate is again a real scenario. Quinnipiac finds him falling further behind in the GOP primary.

Primary Election Matchup
(497 RVs, MoE +/- 4.4%)
Rubio 56 (+9 vs. last poll, 1/20-24)
Crist 33 (-11)
Und 10 (+2)

Q also finds that Crist would be a stronger nominee against Meek, tough either Republican would be ahead in a two-person race.

General Election Matchups
Crist (R) 48 (unch)
Meek 34 (-2)
Und 14 (+2)

Rubio (R) 42 (-2)
Meek 38 (+3)
Und 17 (-2)

After the jump, approval ratings for the statewide elected officials.

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President

Gallup shows the President continuing to bob around the 48% approval mark or so, bouncing back from recent lows to clock in at 49%-45%. Rasmussen also shows a bit of a bounce for the President continuing, with him up to 50% in his tracking poll for the first time since mid-February. It's interesting that Rasmussen Reports polling – which was once criticized for a rightward bias – is now showing some of the best results for the President. Scott Rasmussen explained that “[b]y passing the health care bill, enthusiasm is way up among the Democratic base. That enthusiasm does not carry over to all adults because overall the health care bill remains unpopular. It remains to be seen how much the support for repeal of the health care law will impact enthusiasm on both sides.”

In the “one-off” Presidential approval polls, the AP-GfK poll of adults shows President Obama holding a 49% approval rating. 44% approve of the job he's doing on the economy, continuing a trend of his approval rating on the issues being lower than his overall approval rating.

Finally, there are a couple of head-to-head polls that don't do much for us except emphasize how much things have changed since 2006-08: PPP (D) finds that former President George W. Bush only trails Barack Obama 46%-48%. Obviously, the Twenty-Second Amendment prevents that from ever happening, but I doubt that the matchup would have been similarly close even a year ago.

Rasmussen Reports also finds that President Obama leads Republican-turned-Libertarian-turned-Republican Ron Paul by an exceedingly narrow 42%-41% margin. I don't think there's much of a chance that Paul, who will be 77 in 2012, will make another run for it. But someone like former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson might be able to fill the void and perform well in the Republican primary, and in the general election.

Senate

New York Senate: Kirsten Gillibrand got a bit of good news today when former Governor George Pataki announced that he wouldn't challenge her. She's still under 50% against former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman, which isn't good, but given that she's a relatively unknown appointee, she isn't in as much trouble as other incumbents below 50%.

Pennsylvania Primary:  Susquehanna follows up on Rasmussen showing Senator Arlen Specter's lead over Congressman Joe Sestak dwindling. Specter leads Sestak 42%-28%, but he's way below 50%, and down from his October lead of 44%-16%. I don't think Specter is out of the woods by any stretch.

Pennsylvania: In the general election, Toomey leads both Specter and Sestak by healthy margins. He leads Specter 48%-38% and Sestak 42%-28%. This represents a massive improvement for Sestak, who has apparently been improving his name ID in the runup to the primary.

Rasmussen polled the general election, and finds Toomey leading Specter by 10, but rising to the critical 50% mark. He leads Sestak 47%-36%. Toomey leads Specter by 4.7 points in the RCP average, but the most recent polling has been particularly dismal for the Senator, who has to be considered an underdog for reelection at this point.

Both Rasmussen and Susquehanna find President Obama upside-down in the state, which obviously isn't good news for the Senator either.

California Senate: Senator Barbara Boxer leads her GOP opponents by small margins according to Rasmussen. But she's way under 50%; her best showing is 43% of the vote against former GOP Congressman Tom Campbell. There really aren't many politicians who come back from numbers this low, but if they were going to, I'd guess they'd be Congressmen from a state as blue as California.

North Carolina Senate: According to PPP (D), Senator Richard Burr is in quite a bit of trouble in North Carolina. He leads his Democratic opponents, but doesn't get above 43% of the vote. His situation is a lot like Barbara Boxer's, except that the winds are blowing his party's way this cycle. North Carolina and Arkansas are the two Southern states that never fully aligned with the GOP, for very different reasons. It's worth noting that Rasmussen sees a very different race than PPP, and that Burr leads by 9.7% in the RCP average.  Still, he's definitely vulnerable.

Miscellany

Finally, the AP/GfK poll had a cornucopia of data relating to trust on the issues, favorability for the parties, almost all of which is bad news for the Democrats

• 38% have a favorable opinion of Republicans, 41% of Democrats;

• The parties are trusted equally on the economy;

• 50% oppose the health care law, the highest all year long;

• 76% rate the economy as poor.