Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to lead his potential Democratic opponents in the race for governor, a new Rasmussen poll finds (April 15, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

Corbett 45 - Onorato 36 - Und 11

Corbett 48 - Wagner 27 - Und 14

Corbett 49 - Hoeffel 29 - Und 11

President Obama receives a 48% approval rating in the state, with 52% disapproving. Gov. Ed Rendell (D), who's term-limited, is doing an excellent or good job, according to 47% of voters, while 52% say his performance is fair or poor.

South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint made his fourth Senate primary endorsement today, throwing his support behind Indiana state Sen. Marlin Stutzman over two other Republicans with Washington experience.

DeMint was the first senator to back Marco Rubio in Florida over Gov. Charlie Crist. He also endorsed Chuck DeVore in California over national party favorite Carly Fiorina and Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania before Sen. Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party.

Stutzman also received help Friday from RedState.com's Erick Erickson, who called on conservative activists to get involved before the May 4 primary.

"Time's up conservatives. We must now unite and we must now rally to save Indiana from the Democrats," Erickson wrote. "Now, like in Florida, we must save the NRSC from itself and save Indiana from the Democrats."

Both former Sen. Dan Coats and former Rep. John Hostettler poll better against Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth, but DeMint told FOX News "we need new faces here."

"We can raise some money, " DeMint added, "and we're going to do that with a money bomb over the next week, try to draw some attention."

President

In the Gallup tracking poll, the President dipped over the weekend, then recovered to a 48%-46% split today.  Rasmussen likewise saw an ebb in the President's approval rating on Saturday, dipping to 45%, but it has since recovered to 48%-51%.  The President still seems to be trading in the same basic range in the tracking polls, suggesting that he received neither a substantial bounce nor a dropoff since the vote on the health care law.

More ominous for the Democrats is the Gallup polling suggesting that 46% of voters think the President deserves a second term, while 50% do not.  Even more ominously, the split among Independents is 40%/54%.  This is bad news for Democrats because the base is crammed into a few heavily African American, Hispanic, and liberal districts.  Note, please, that I said this was ominous for the Democrats, not the President.  This has no bearing for 2012, but it is yet another indicator for 2010 that the President won't be a huge help to Democrats in swing districts.

Senate

New York:  Siena polling looked at Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's race against former Congressman and American Idol judge's sire Joe Dioguardi and against Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman.  She leads Blakeman 46%-26%, and DioGuardi 46%-27%.  Gillibrand's numbers aren't as dire as those for most incumbents who are below 50%, because she's an appointee.  Her favorables aren't that bad, 34%-25%, and the sub-50% number probably reflects the fact that voters aren't familiar with her, not that they don't like her.

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Much remains on his agenda, but President Obama is now en route to California for a two-day political trip benefiting one of the Democratic caucus' potentially vulnerable incumbents, Barbara Boxer.

Recent polling shows Boxer's potential Republican opponents pulling closer and closer. More importantly perhaps is the fact that the three-term incumbent now consistently polls in the low-to-mid 40s, an ominous sign for anyone seeking re-election, especially a Democrat in this headwind. RCP recently shifted the California Senate race into the “Toss Up” category.

But national Democrats say they remain bullish about Boxer's chances, owing to the strength of her campaign in the early going. Boxer has $8.7 million dollars on hand as of the end of the first quarter of 2010, having brought in $2.4 million from January through March. That's far more than any of the Republicans, who must still battle each other for nearly two more months.

As for her polling weaknesses, a Democratic campaign official said simply, “It is not a good time to be apart of Washington. It is very much an anti-Washington time,” pointing to the Republicans who also face challenges – many within their own party. In addition to her own aggressive campaign, Democrats point to the weakness of the GOP field as reason for their optimism.

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When [David] Brooks is on, and not writing specifically for the incestuous Georgetown/Upper West Side intelligentsia, there isn't a better op-ed columnist filling space in the Times print and online operations—at least since William Safire passed away. Granted, take that for what it's worth: when your fellow pundits are running jokes like Maureen Dowd and Gail Collins; the bitter Paul Krugman; Sir Thomas Friedman; the unbearably repetitious Bob Herbert; the mysteriously awful Charles Blow; and Frank Rich, aka Mr. Saturday Night, well, the bar is set pretty low." - Russ Smith, Splice Today.

Former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats (R) holds a 21-point lead over Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) in a new Rasmussen poll for the open Senate seat (April 13-14, 500 LV).

Also leading Ellsworth in general election matchups are former Rep. John Hostettler and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman. It's a positive poll for the GOP, but especially Coats -- who outperformed Hostetller for the first time.

Coats 54 - Ellsworth 33 - 9

Hostettler 50 - Ellsworth 33 - Und 12

Stutzman 41 - Ellsworth 36 - Und 16

RCP currently ranks the Indiana Senate race as Lean Republican. Take a look at all of RCP's rankings on the new RCP Battle for the Senate map.

This weekend, Charlie Baker (R) garnered an overwhelming share of support at the Massachusetts GOP convention, enough to make him the party's nominee and to avoid a primary race against Christy Mihos (R). All parties now look to November when the state features a three-way race between Baker, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) and Democrat-turned-independent candidate Tim Cahill.

A new survey out from Western New England College today (481 RVs, 4/11-15, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows Patrick ahead in that race, with just over a third of the vote.

General Election Matchup
Patrick 34
Cahill 29
Baker 27

Days after his veto of a Republican-favored education bill, politicos remain puzzled about Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's (?) plans for his Senate run.

This morning the St. Petersburg Times reports that the campaign of Marco Rubio claims Crist has "halted all its TV advertising in the Orlando and Tampa Bay markets where the anti-Rubio spots were airing. That's presumably a sign that Crist has decided to marshal his resources for later or perhaps drop out altogether." In addition, another Crist endorser, former Florida Republican Party chairman Al Cardenas, says Crist should stay in the GOP primary or drop out.

Crist's closest closest political ally, appointed Sen. George LeMieux (R), told MSNBC that he has "every reason to believe" that Crist will continue to run as a Republican.

LeMIEUX: "The way I understood it is he is a Republican who is going to run as a Republican with the Republican Party. Not that he is going to run as an independent who happens to still be a Republican. There's been a lot of news speculation about this. Certainly makes for interesting television and newspaper stories. But I have every reason to believe that Charlie Crist is running as a Republican, and this independent thing will not happen."

He later said he spoke with Crist this weekend, but the race did not come up, adding: "I have no information to believe that he is going to do anything other than run as a Republican in the Republican primary."

Meanwhile, our friend Reid Wilson reports that Washington Republicans believe "it is a virtual certainty" that Crist "will bolt the GOP and run instead as an independent." The report also suggests most senior staff would leave the campaign if he does so.

Crist has until April 30 to decide how to file, if at all. If past behavior is any indicator, he may wait until the very last minute to do so.

2012 is a long way off, of course, but according to a new poll from Gallup Barack Obama would have a very difficult time winning a second term if the election were held today. Overall, 46% of registered voters say President Obama deserves reelection while 50% say he does not.

Partisans are predictably polarized on the question: 84% of Democrats believe Obama deserves to be reelected and 88% of Republicans believe he does not. Most troubling for the White House, however, is that a majority of Independents (54%) side against President Obama deserving a second term as well, while only 40% currently say he does deserve a second term.

To put these numbers into context, in 2008 Obama won Independents by a margin of 52 to 44. They comprised 29% of the 2008 electorate.

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still hasn't announced that he's running for governor, but he remains the runaway favorite to win, a new Siena College poll finds (April 12-15, 806 RV, MoE +/- 3.5%). More than eight-in-10 voters believe the troubled state government can be fixed, and slightly more than six-in-10 think Cuomo can do it.

General
Cuomo 61 (+2 vs. last poll, March 22)
Lazio 24 (+3)
Und 16

Cuomo 58 (-5)
Levy 23 (+7)
Und 19

GOP Primary
Lazio 29
Levy 15
Paladino 13
Und 43

Former Gov. George Pataki (R) announced last week he will not challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), but he led her by 9 points in this poll. Indicating her vulnerability, just 27% said they'd vote for Gillibrand, 40% would prefer someone else and 33% were unsure. Still, she leads Republican Bruce Blakeman by 20 points.

Gillibrand 46 (-2 vs. last poll, March 22)
Blakeman 26 (+2)
Und 28