President Obama's approval rating is the lowest its been in the 15 months since he took office, a new Quinnnipiac national poll finds. Just 44% now approve of the job he's doing as president, down from 45% last month; meanwhile, 46% disapprove.

Obama now has a 47.9% RCP Average Job Approval.

"President Barack Obama's approval rating hovers at an all-time low," said Quinnipiac assistant polling director Peter Brown. "The White House had predicted passage of the health care overhaul would boost his fortunes, but that has not been the case, and that legislation itself remains decidedly unpopular."

Congress remains astonishingly unpopular, with just 20% approving and 71% disapproving of the job its doing. On the health care reform bill that passed last month, 53% disapprove and just 39% approve of it.

Obama gets another selection for the Supreme Court this year, and voters trust him (46%) more than they do Senate Republicans (43%) to make the right choice. More (47%) believe that only qualifications should be considered by senators when voting on a nominee, while 43% believe political views should be a factor. Fifty-two percent approve of his first selection, Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

"Perhaps most interesting is that almost five times as many voters think the justices allow their political views to play in their rulings rather than deciding cases solely on the law, perhaps a result of the all-out war that has been the case for most Supreme Court confirmations in the past two decades,” said Brown.

The national survey was conducted April 14-19 of 1,930 RV with a MoE of +/- 2.2%.

The California Democratic Party just announced President Obama will be back in the state next month for another fundraiser for Sen. Barbara Boxer. The fundraiser will be held in the Bay Area and benefit both Boxer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

The announcement comes one day after the president attended fundraisers in L.A. for Boxer and the Democratic National Committee.

Presidential

I'm considering changing this over to a once-a-week portion of the update.  Gallup and Rasmussen show the President in about the same range he's been in post-health care passage.  Gallup has him  at 49%-45%, while Rasmussen shows him at 49% approve, 50% disapprove.

Breaking his polling down into quarters, Gallup finds that in the fifth quarter of his term, the President has a 48.8% approval rating, down two points from the fourth quarter.  Gallup notes that this places him with the third lowest fifth quarter number ever.  He polls marginally better than Jimmy Carter at this point in his term (48%) and a few points better than Ronald Reagan (46.3%).  Obviously there is one President he would prefer to emulate and one President he would not prefer to emulate.

Senate

New Hampshire: PPP (D) polls the New Hampshire Senate race, and finds that Congressman Paul Hodes lags Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and businessman Bill Binnie, by 47%-40% and 46%-41% margins, respectively.  Hodes leads the other Republicans candidates, Jim Bender and 1996 gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne, 43%-40% and 43%-38%, respectively.

Hodes, like Lamontagne and Bender, is upside-down in his approval rating, at 32%-39%.  Independents overwhelmingly disapprove of him, 28%-45%.  Even in his home district, he loses to Ayotte 42%-47%.

The good news for Democrats is that, for now, President Obama is relatively popular, clocking in at 47%-48%.  His health care law is relatively popular, at 42%/50% approve/disapprove.  That means that there's probably still enough time to turn these two factors into net positives.  In addition, the primary won't be until September, meaning the Republicans will be beating up on each other for a long time, and there is a possibility of a fractured party.  Nevertheless, it is looking like a long, tough fall for Hodes.  He trails Ayotte 46%-36.8% in the RCP average.

Governor

Florida: Rasmussen Reports also polled the Florida gubernatorial race, and found that Attorney General Bill McCollum's lead over state CFO Alex Sink is shrinking.  McCollum leads 45%-38%.  On the one hand, that represents a net shrinkage of four points from last month's polling, but on the other hand, it also represents movement well within the error margin.  But Rasmussen is the second pollster in as many weeks to show McCollum's lead shrinking, and it is possible that there's been some blowback over the healthcare lawsuit.  McCollum leads 43.8%-34.8% in the RCP Average. 

Pennsylvania:  Rasmussen Reports surveyed the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race and found, consistent with other polling companies, that Republican Attorney general Tom Corbett leads his Democratic rivals handily.  His closest competitor is Dan Onorato, whom Corbett leads 45%-36%.

But the polling shows Onorato closing the gap with Corbett.  Corbett led 52%-26% in February and 46%-29% in March.   As the Democrat's name identification improves, I suspect the race will continue to tighten. Onorato,  who is the Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) executive, is probably uniquely well positioned to run this race, as he hails from a region of the state where Democrats have struggled recently.

Still, it doesn't help the Democratic candidates that President Obama and Governor Ed Rendell are upside-down in the state.  The intensity gap is even worse here, with 41% strongly disapproving of the President and 31% approving.  Corbett leads Onorato 42.7%-29.5% in the RCP Average.

House

PA12:  The big polling news came out of the House, where two pollsters showed a very close race to replace former Rep. John Murtha.  The McLaughlin (R) polls shows Republican Tim Burns trailing Democrat Mark Critz by a point, 40%-39%.

Public Policy Polling (D), by contrast, shows Burns leading Critz 44%-41%.  Both candidates are viewed fairly positively by the electorate.  While polling has been sparse, for the most part it has shown the two candidates knotted up.

But Public Policy Polling digs a little bit deeper, and finds that only 33% of Democrats approve of President Obama's performance, while 57% disapprove.  64% have an unfavorable view of Nancy Pelosi, 59% oppose the health care plan, and 60% disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, 63% disapprove of Governor Rendell, while 60% disapprove of Specter.  56% disapprove of the job Republicans are doing, which makes them, relatively speaking, the most popular of the bunch.  Pat Toomey is leading Arlen Specter 47%-37% in the district.  The poll also finds that McCain voters are considerably more fired up to vote than Obama voters (57% of Republicans are very excited to vote, versus 38% of Democrats).

This is an interesting district, and kind of a test case for the Democrats' ability to hold the House.  It went for Al Gore by ten points, and was designed to elect a Democrat.  But over the course of the decade, like most of Appalachia, it drifted toward the GOP, and was the only district to vote for both John Kerry and John McCain.

Ultimately, it will be difficult for a Democrat to win this district, and there's a real risk that Critz will lose handily.  If so, there are about 20 Democrats who should collectively shudder, who represent much less heavily Democratic districts in Appalachia, and who actually voted for (a) Nancy Pelosi, (b) the stimulus, (c) the health care bill and/or (d) cap-and-trade.

Roll Call reports the DCCC raised $9.77 million in March while the NRCC raised $8 million. More impressively, the D-Trip has $26 million on hand to the NRCC's more modest $10 million - which itself is a big improvement from February.

Don't look now, but the FDA is coming - for your salt.

Public Policy Polling (D) is out with its first numbers in New Hampshire (1,474 RVs, 4/17-18, MoE +/- 2.6%), which mirror other surveys in showing Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in precarious position for a seat Democrats had hoped to pickup this November.

General Election Matchups
Ayotte 47 -- Hodes 40 -- Und 13
Binnie 46 -- Hodes 41 -- Und 13
Hodes 43 -- Bender 40 -- Und 18
Hodes 43 -- Lamontagne 38 -- Und 19

Forty-seven percent of respondents approve of President Obama's job performance while 48 percent disapprove. Exactly half oppose Obama's health care plan, while 42 percent support it. Retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R) has a 44 percent approval rating with 37 percent disapproving. New Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) has an upside-down job rating -- 42 percent approve while 48 percent disapprove.

Favorable Ratings
Hodes 32 / 39
Ayotte 34 / 24
Binnie 25 / 23
Bender 6 / 18
Lamontagne 12 / 28

A second poll in as many days -- the latest from Rasmussen (500 LVs, 4/15, MoE +/- 4.5%) -- shows Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum's (R) lead shrinking over Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) in the open gubernatorial race.

General Election Matchup
McCollum 45 (-2 vs. last poll, 3/18)
Sink 38 (+2)
Und 10 (-2)

Yesterday's Quinnipiac poll showed Sink closing to within four points of McCollum.

Another trend mirroring Quinnipiac's numbers is an improvement in President Obama's job rating. His net approval has jumped from -12 (43/55) in March to +2 (51/49) in this survey, a 14-point improvement. Obama was in Florida last week outlining his plan for the space program; he's also signed the health care bill into law since that last survey.

Of note as well: Charlie Crist's numbers took an even bigger jump -- 57 percent now approve while 42 percent disapprove of his job performance, compared with a 45-54 split last month.

Yale law professor Jonathan Macey says the only way to solve "too big to fail" is to break up the big Wall Street banks.

David Paul Kuhn analyzes the Pew Research survey showing a withering of trust in government.

Jeremy Lott argues we are in the middle of a "Ron Paul Moment."

Kyle Trygstad continues digging through the Q1 FEC filings and highlights some self-funders for the GOP.

At RCM, Josh Barro looks at a new trend: wage freezes.

At RCW, Theodore Couloumbis, Bill Ahlstrom, and Gary Weaver look at the urgent task of "restricting their further spread and controlling nuclear weapons technologies and materiel."

Also, check out the latest RCP Poll average for the UK Election. As you can see, things have changed pretty dramatically in the last few days; the Tory lead has shrunk to just 3.2%.

Lastly, RCS' Tim Joyce ponders the sad state of track and field in the United States.

"Obtaining a carve-out isn't rocket science. Just give Chairman Dodd [D-Conn.] and Chuck Schumer [D-N.Y.] a shitload of money." A Republican financial services lobbyist speaking to The Huffington Post about the massive carve-outs in the Dems' financial reform bill.

The Washington Post reports that it has "obtained" a McLaughlin poll (R) showing the race to replace Jack Murtha between former Murtha aide Mark Critz and Republican businessman Tim Burns tight:

Mark Critz (D) -- 40%
Tim Burns (R) -- 39%

By contrast, the Democratic polling group Public Policy Polling -- who typically produces very mainstream results with their public polling -- shows the Republican ahead:

Tim Burns (R) -- 44%
Mark Critz (D) -- 41%

The election will be held May 18, the day of the Pennsylvania primary.   This could result in the odd situation where the victor in the special election could become a lame duck on his first day in office if he also loses the primary that day.