Senate

Arkansas: The DailyKos/Research 2000 poll was in the field at about the same time as Rasmussen was, and finds a very different race than  Rasmussen does.  R2K finds Blanche Lincoln leading Lt. Gov. Bill Halter by eight points, just a few weeks before the May 18 primary.   If Lincoln doesn't get to 50%, she faces a runoff three weeks later.

But R2K also finds that Lincoln makes it up to 40% against her opponents, and that Halter is within a few points of his opponents.  Of course, this assumes an electorate that is 33%R, 38%D, when in 2008 it was 32%R, 36%D.  A more Democratic 2010 electorate seems . . . unlikely.

Indiana: One of the marquee Senate races will  be the race to replace Evan Bayh,  who is retiring.   SurveyUSA finds that former Senator Dan Coats leads the primary.  What's interesting is the solid support for conservative state Senator Marlin Stutzman,  who has earned the support of a good chunk of the rightroots.  In the general election, Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth remains mired at around 35%, where he's been all cycle, although the Republicans are in  the 40s.  Still, it's pretty hard to see what his roadmap to victory is.

Nevada:  Rasmussen and R2K  also went head-to-head in the Nevada Senate race.  Rasmussen  finds that "chicken-gate" hasn't helped Harry Reid out all that much in the Senate race -- it's brought Lowden down a couple of points, but Reid hasn't improved.  His numbers are similar against his other two  potential  GOP  opponents.  Research 2000, by contrast, sees a single-digit race, although Reid still trails.

Ohio:  Quinnipiac has two polls showing Republican Rob Portman trailing both of his potential Democratic opponents (to be narrowed down to a single opponent on Tuesday).  But there's been very little movement since last month's iteration of the poll, and Q does tend to show worse results for Republicans, in part because it is a poll of registered voters, rather than likely voters.  The President's approval numbers are around 45% in the Buckeye State, with 50% disapproving, a slight improvement from his February numbers (but a slight worsening since March).

If healthcare reform and the President's overall approval are really underwater, it gets hard to see how Fisher wins.  But Portman has extensive ties to the Bush Administration, and was its OMB director as well as its trade director,  both of which should provide ample ammunition in this rust belt state.

Arizona Primary:  PPP (D) is finding that John McCain holds an 11-point lead over former Congressman JD Hayworth.   The million-dollar question here is whether PPP/DailyKos are picking up on the same surge in conservative interest that Rasmussen is picking up on.   If they're missing something, the septugenarian could be in trouble.  If Rasmussen is missing something, he should be in okay shape.

Governor

Ohio:  Quinnipiac also shows John Kasich trailing Governor Ted Strickland by 6, again unchanged from last month's polling.  This race has clearly tightened, as Strickland has been hammering Kasich over his ties to Lehman Bros.  But Strickland is still an incumbent averaging 43% in the polls, which is a pretty tenuous position to find onesself in.

Oregon:  Former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber seems to give the Democrats Republicans a pretty good shot at taking back the Governor's mansion against a fairly pedestrian group of GOP candidates.  But former Trail Blazer Chris Dudley keeps the former Governor down to 41%, tying him.   Against the other GOP candidates,  but Kitzhaber and current Secretary of State Bill  Bradbury approach  50%.

Of course, this is more an issue of Dudley taking Kitzhaber/Bradbury supporters and converting them to undecideds than it is a surge of support for the center.  But it still gives him as good a shot as any at keeping the seat.  Republicans should hope that his political skills are better than his free throw shooting skills.

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