Senate

Ohio Primary:  With only a few days to go in the primary contest,  Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher may well be opening up a lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.  Every poll taken this cycle has shown Fisher with a lead, but the most recent Quinnipiac poll (which has done almost all the polling in this race) shows him with a double-digit lead for the first time this cycle.  Of course "undecided" still gets the most responses, and most voters could still change their mind, so the situation is probably best described as "fluid, with Fisher in the lead."

Arizona:  PPP (D) has polled the Arizona Senate race, and finds that former Congressman JD Hayworth trails Democratic City Councilman Rodney Glassman by three points, while Senator John McCain wins by sixteen points.  This actually contrasts with most other polling, which shows both Republicans leading Glassman.   PPP also finds John McCain's approval rating at 34%, which is pretty terrible for an incumbent.

This looks like an outlier for now; we'll wait to see what other polling tells us.

UPDATE:  Ask  an ye shall receive!  Arizona pollster BRC weighs in with polling showing Hayworth leading Glassman by seven points, and McCain up by twenty-four points.  Moreover, BRC finds McCain leading Hayworth 54%-28% in the primary.

North Dakota:  I wish I could write something unique, interesting and insightful about the North Dakota Senate race, but there isn't too much to write.  John Hoeven leads his Democratic opponent by forty-five points and is almost certainly going to be the next Senator from that state.

Governor

Arizona Governor:  Rasmussen's polling today shows a big boost in Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer's approval ratings, and an increase in her lead over Democrat Terry Goddard.  This stands in contrast to the PPP (D) poll showing Brewer's numbers quite a bit lower, and Goddard leading.

The difference? Lots of potential reasons, but the most likely one (to my mind) is that Rasmussen polls likely voters, while PPP was polling registered voters.  Highly enthusiastic voters make it through likely voter screens.

Georgia Governor:  Rasmussen polled all of the Georgia Governor's race matchups, and found the Republicans leading all of the matchups  but one.  I think the situation is a little worse than the polling is letting on.  The likely Democratic nominee, Roy Barnes, is a former Governor who already lost one re-election race in the state.  To be stuck in the low/mid-40s in a state with a heavy GOP bent isn't the position he really wants to be in.  Of course a number of the GOP candidates are surrounded by allegations of ethical improprieties, so I would imagine there is room for growth here.

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