President:

President Obama appears to be at the top of his oscillating poll numbers in Gallup; for the second straight day he's at 49%/45%.  Similarly, Rasmussen has the President at 47%/52%, down a bit from yesterday.

Strangely, we're coming to a point where the tracking polls are showing consistently better results for the President than the one-day polls. Quinnipiac finds that only 44% of Americans approve of the job the President is doing, while 46% disapprove. This is the lowest number the President has received to date. My sense is that the tracking polls -- which are less prone to one-day fluctuations from bad samples or news events -- are the ones to be trusted here, but it is a strange effect indeed.

Once again, we see the President's "issue numbers" coming in significantly below the President's approval . 40% approve of his handling of the economy, 40% approve of his handling of healthcare, 38% approve of his handling of job creation, while 34% approve of his handling of the deficit.

It is also important to note that Gallup finds that voters are increasingly holding Obama responsible for the state of the economy.  26% find him a "great deal" responsible for economic conditions, while 24% assign a "moderate amount" of blame.  This pales compared to the 42%/33% split assigned to George W. Bush, but that's a slight improvement for Bush since last July (when he was at 43%/37) and a large surge in blame against Obama (at 14%/18% last July).

Senate

North Carolina:  Senator Richard Burr continues to earn the title of most endangered Republican Senate incumbent -- which isn't such a bad thing this cycle.  In Rasmussen, he continues to toy with the 50% mark against his major Democratic opponents.  PPP (D) is a North Carolina-based pollster, and it has consistently showed worse numbers for Burr.  Notably, it has not shown significantly better numbers for Marshall, so this might just be a case of undecideds leaning toward the Republican.  Burr leads Marshall by 16.3% in the RCP Average.

New Hampshire Primary:  Some good news for the Senate GOP from PPP in New Hampshire:  Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is a strong contender to pick up the GOP nod for Senate.  In a race against three decent challengers, she receives 43% of the vote; her nearest contender is Bill Binnie, who gets 19% of the vote.

This is good news for Senate Republicans because Ayotte and Binnie consistently poll the best against Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes.

Governor

Arizona:  Rasmussen finds a surge for the Republican candidates in the Arizona gubernatorial race.  Democrat Terry Goddard now trails Governor Jan Brewer 40%-44%, which is a net 13-point swing in the Governor's favor since March.  All of the other Republicans tested fare better against Goddard, reflecting the trouble Brewer is having with the electorate as a result of  a proposed sales tax increase.

California:  Rasmussen also finds a surge for Democrat Jerry Brown out in California.  Although the polling has been close there, it's difficult to imagine voters turning to a Republican when President Obama sports a 60% approval rating and outgoing Republican governor Schwartzenegger has a 70% disapproval.  Whitman leads by .4% in the RCP average.

Misc.

The Quinnipiac poll also found that support for the recent health care bill is not strong.  53% disapprove of the bill, while only 39% approve.  Only 24% report that a vote for the health care bill would make them more likely to vote for a Member of Congress, while 42% say it makes them less likely.   Finally, about as many survey participants approve of the Republicans as do the Democrats.  This continues a trend most pollsters have found recently, which is a reversal of what polls showed in recent years.

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