Presidential

I'm considering changing this over to a once-a-week portion of the update.  Gallup and Rasmussen show the President in about the same range he's been in post-health care passage.  Gallup has him  at 49%-45%, while Rasmussen shows him at 49% approve, 50% disapprove.

Breaking his polling down into quarters, Gallup finds that in the fifth quarter of his term, the President has a 48.8% approval rating, down two points from the fourth quarter.  Gallup notes that this places him with the third lowest fifth quarter number ever.  He polls marginally better than Jimmy Carter at this point in his term (48%) and a few points better than Ronald Reagan (46.3%).  Obviously there is one President he would prefer to emulate and one President he would not prefer to emulate.

Senate

New Hampshire: PPP (D) polls the New Hampshire Senate race, and finds that Congressman Paul Hodes lags Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and businessman Bill Binnie, by 47%-40% and 46%-41% margins, respectively.  Hodes leads the other Republicans candidates, Jim Bender and 1996 gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne, 43%-40% and 43%-38%, respectively.

Hodes, like Lamontagne and Bender, is upside-down in his approval rating, at 32%-39%.  Independents overwhelmingly disapprove of him, 28%-45%.  Even in his home district, he loses to Ayotte 42%-47%.

The good news for Democrats is that, for now, President Obama is relatively popular, clocking in at 47%-48%.  His health care law is relatively popular, at 42%/50% approve/disapprove.  That means that there's probably still enough time to turn these two factors into net positives.  In addition, the primary won't be until September, meaning the Republicans will be beating up on each other for a long time, and there is a possibility of a fractured party.  Nevertheless, it is looking like a long, tough fall for Hodes.  He trails Ayotte 46%-36.8% in the RCP average.

Governor

Florida: Rasmussen Reports also polled the Florida gubernatorial race, and found that Attorney General Bill McCollum's lead over state CFO Alex Sink is shrinking.  McCollum leads 45%-38%.  On the one hand, that represents a net shrinkage of four points from last month's polling, but on the other hand, it also represents movement well within the error margin.  But Rasmussen is the second pollster in as many weeks to show McCollum's lead shrinking, and it is possible that there's been some blowback over the healthcare lawsuit.  McCollum leads 43.8%-34.8% in the RCP Average. 

Pennsylvania:  Rasmussen Reports surveyed the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race and found, consistent with other polling companies, that Republican Attorney general Tom Corbett leads his Democratic rivals handily.  His closest competitor is Dan Onorato, whom Corbett leads 45%-36%.

But the polling shows Onorato closing the gap with Corbett.  Corbett led 52%-26% in February and 46%-29% in March.   As the Democrat's name identification improves, I suspect the race will continue to tighten. Onorato,  who is the Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) executive, is probably uniquely well positioned to run this race, as he hails from a region of the state where Democrats have struggled recently.

Still, it doesn't help the Democratic candidates that President Obama and Governor Ed Rendell are upside-down in the state.  The intensity gap is even worse here, with 41% strongly disapproving of the President and 31% approving.  Corbett leads Onorato 42.7%-29.5% in the RCP Average.

House

PA12:  The big polling news came out of the House, where two pollsters showed a very close race to replace former Rep. John Murtha.  The McLaughlin (R) polls shows Republican Tim Burns trailing Democrat Mark Critz by a point, 40%-39%.

Public Policy Polling (D), by contrast, shows Burns leading Critz 44%-41%.  Both candidates are viewed fairly positively by the electorate.  While polling has been sparse, for the most part it has shown the two candidates knotted up.

But Public Policy Polling digs a little bit deeper, and finds that only 33% of Democrats approve of President Obama's performance, while 57% disapprove.  64% have an unfavorable view of Nancy Pelosi, 59% oppose the health care plan, and 60% disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, 63% disapprove of Governor Rendell, while 60% disapprove of Specter.  56% disapprove of the job Republicans are doing, which makes them, relatively speaking, the most popular of the bunch.  Pat Toomey is leading Arlen Specter 47%-37% in the district.  The poll also finds that McCain voters are considerably more fired up to vote than Obama voters (57% of Republicans are very excited to vote, versus 38% of Democrats).

This is an interesting district, and kind of a test case for the Democrats' ability to hold the House.  It went for Al Gore by ten points, and was designed to elect a Democrat.  But over the course of the decade, like most of Appalachia, it drifted toward the GOP, and was the only district to vote for both John Kerry and John McCain.

Ultimately, it will be difficult for a Democrat to win this district, and there's a real risk that Critz will lose handily.  If so, there are about 20 Democrats who should collectively shudder, who represent much less heavily Democratic districts in Appalachia, and who actually voted for (a) Nancy Pelosi, (b) the stimulus, (c) the health care bill and/or (d) cap-and-trade.

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