President

In the Gallup tracking poll, the President dipped over the weekend, then recovered to a 48%-46% split today.  Rasmussen likewise saw an ebb in the President's approval rating on Saturday, dipping to 45%, but it has since recovered to 48%-51%.  The President still seems to be trading in the same basic range in the tracking polls, suggesting that he received neither a substantial bounce nor a dropoff since the vote on the health care law.

More ominous for the Democrats is the Gallup polling suggesting that 46% of voters think the President deserves a second term, while 50% do not.  Even more ominously, the split among Independents is 40%/54%.  This is bad news for Democrats because the base is crammed into a few heavily African American, Hispanic, and liberal districts.  Note, please, that I said this was ominous for the Democrats, not the President.  This has no bearing for 2012, but it is yet another indicator for 2010 that the President won't be a huge help to Democrats in swing districts.

Senate

New York:  Siena polling looked at Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's race against former Congressman and American Idol judge's sire Joe Dioguardi and against Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman.  She leads Blakeman 46%-26%, and DioGuardi 46%-27%.  Gillibrand's numbers aren't as dire as those for most incumbents who are below 50%, because she's an appointee.  Her favorables aren't that bad, 34%-25%, and the sub-50% number probably reflects the fact that voters aren't familiar with her, not that they don't like her.

Indiana:  Ouchie.  According to Rasmussen, Congressman Brad Ellsworth trails former Senator Dan Coats by twenty-one points, 54%-33%.  He trails former Congressman John Hostettler 50%-33%, and state Senator Marlin Stutzman 41%-36%.  It will take a substantial change in the mood of the country for Ellsworth to pull this one off.

Governor

Florida:  According to Quinnipiac, Attorney General Bill McCollum leads state CFO Alex Sink by a narrow 40%-36% margin.  Quinnipiac has typically showed the race to be close, and indeed is the only nonpartisan pollster that's shown Sink ahead this cycle.  McCollum leads by 9.8% in the RCP Average.  Interestingly, Quinnipiac finds that Charlie Crist's approval rating among Democrats and Independents is higher than it is among Republicans.  Quinnipiac finds Barack Obama's job approval bouncing back to a 50%-46% split, his best showing since June of 2009.

Massachusetts:  Western New England college polled the Governor's race.  To tell the truth, I don't know much about these guys, but the result is consistent with what I've seen from other pollsters.  Deval Patrick is at a paltry 34%, which matches his approval rating, but the anti-Patrick vote is split between Republican Charlie Baker and Democratic Treasurer Tim Cahill.    Patrick leads by 8.5 points in the RCP Average.

New York: Siena tells us that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads all of his potential opponents by hefty margins.  He leads former Congressman Rick Lazio 61%-24%, former Suffolk County executive (and former Democrat) Steve Levy 58%-23%, and Tea Party activist Carl Paladino 64%-19%.  Governor Paterson has a 25% approval rating, but that doesn't seem to be rubbing off on Cuomo, who sports a 66%-18% favorable/unfavorable ratio.  Even conservatives like the guy by a 54%-30% margin.

Texas:  The longest-serving governor in Texas history? Sam Houston? Jim Hogg? Pa and Ma Ferguson?  Nope: one Richard Perry.  Perry became Governor of Texas over ten years ago, and is seeking to battle "Perry fatigue" by extending it for another four.  According to Rasmussen, this will be tough, as Perry leads Houston Mayor Bill White 48%-44%.   This is uncomfortably close for the incumbent, but Texas is a pretty red state still, and Perry leads by five in the RCP average.  But also remember, gubernatorial races tend to be much less partisan than Senate or House races.  At stake is the GOP's ability to control redistricting of 35-36 House seats.

Arizona Primary: Embattled Governor Jan Brewer finds herself in the lead for the Republican nomination, according to Rasmussen reports.  She leads in a four-way race with 26% of the vote, to 12% for State Treasurer Dean Martin, 14% for former State GOP Chair John Munger, and 18% for activist Owen "Buz" Mills.  This represents a 6-point surge for Brewer since March's polling and a 9-point drop for Martin.  The primary is in August, so there is plenty of time for this to develop.  Brewer has popularity issues due to her call for a tax hike, and is probably a slight underdog for now in the general election.

New York Primary:  Siena also polled the Republican primary, and found Lazio in the lead, 29%-15%-13%.

Congress

Two sets of generic balloting out.  Gallup sees the race as 46% Republican, 43% Democrats, which  would probably translate to Republicans winning between 225 and 230 seats.  Ramussen continues to see a doomsday scenario for Democrats, where they lose the generic ballot by ten points, 46%-36%.  This would probably represent a sixty-to-seventy seat pickup for Republicans.

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