President

Gallup shows the President continuing to bob around the 48% approval mark or so, bouncing back from recent lows to clock in at 49%-45%. Rasmussen also shows a bit of a bounce for the President continuing, with him up to 50% in his tracking poll for the first time since mid-February. It's interesting that Rasmussen Reports polling – which was once criticized for a rightward bias – is now showing some of the best results for the President. Scott Rasmussen explained that “[b]y passing the health care bill, enthusiasm is way up among the Democratic base. That enthusiasm does not carry over to all adults because overall the health care bill remains unpopular. It remains to be seen how much the support for repeal of the health care law will impact enthusiasm on both sides.”

In the “one-off” Presidential approval polls, the AP-GfK poll of adults shows President Obama holding a 49% approval rating. 44% approve of the job he's doing on the economy, continuing a trend of his approval rating on the issues being lower than his overall approval rating.

Finally, there are a couple of head-to-head polls that don't do much for us except emphasize how much things have changed since 2006-08: PPP (D) finds that former President George W. Bush only trails Barack Obama 46%-48%. Obviously, the Twenty-Second Amendment prevents that from ever happening, but I doubt that the matchup would have been similarly close even a year ago.

Rasmussen Reports also finds that President Obama leads Republican-turned-Libertarian-turned-Republican Ron Paul by an exceedingly narrow 42%-41% margin. I don't think there's much of a chance that Paul, who will be 77 in 2012, will make another run for it. But someone like former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson might be able to fill the void and perform well in the Republican primary, and in the general election.

Senate

New York Senate: Kirsten Gillibrand got a bit of good news today when former Governor George Pataki announced that he wouldn't challenge her. She's still under 50% against former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman, which isn't good, but given that she's a relatively unknown appointee, she isn't in as much trouble as other incumbents below 50%.

Pennsylvania Primary:  Susquehanna follows up on Rasmussen showing Senator Arlen Specter's lead over Congressman Joe Sestak dwindling. Specter leads Sestak 42%-28%, but he's way below 50%, and down from his October lead of 44%-16%. I don't think Specter is out of the woods by any stretch.

Pennsylvania: In the general election, Toomey leads both Specter and Sestak by healthy margins. He leads Specter 48%-38% and Sestak 42%-28%. This represents a massive improvement for Sestak, who has apparently been improving his name ID in the runup to the primary.

Rasmussen polled the general election, and finds Toomey leading Specter by 10, but rising to the critical 50% mark. He leads Sestak 47%-36%. Toomey leads Specter by 4.7 points in the RCP average, but the most recent polling has been particularly dismal for the Senator, who has to be considered an underdog for reelection at this point.

Both Rasmussen and Susquehanna find President Obama upside-down in the state, which obviously isn't good news for the Senator either.

California Senate: Senator Barbara Boxer leads her GOP opponents by small margins according to Rasmussen. But she's way under 50%; her best showing is 43% of the vote against former GOP Congressman Tom Campbell. There really aren't many politicians who come back from numbers this low, but if they were going to, I'd guess they'd be Congressmen from a state as blue as California.

North Carolina Senate: According to PPP (D), Senator Richard Burr is in quite a bit of trouble in North Carolina. He leads his Democratic opponents, but doesn't get above 43% of the vote. His situation is a lot like Barbara Boxer's, except that the winds are blowing his party's way this cycle. North Carolina and Arkansas are the two Southern states that never fully aligned with the GOP, for very different reasons. It's worth noting that Rasmussen sees a very different race than PPP, and that Burr leads by 9.7% in the RCP average.  Still, he's definitely vulnerable.

Miscellany

Finally, the AP/GfK poll had a cornucopia of data relating to trust on the issues, favorability for the parties, almost all of which is bad news for the Democrats

• 38% have a favorable opinion of Republicans, 41% of Democrats;

• The parties are trusted equally on the economy;

• 50% oppose the health care law, the highest all year long;

• 76% rate the economy as poor.

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