President:

No major movements in the two tracking polls. Obama improved slightly (a point) in the Rasmussen poll and moved back to breaking even in Gallup.

CNN's poll of adults has the President at 51%/47% approve-disapprove, up from their mid-March polling. In CNN's polls, it appears the President has enjoyed a slight bump in the polls post-health care reform, which is consistent with other polling.

Senate

Pennsylvania Senate Primary: I'll go out of my traditional order here, because this is, to paraphrase the Veep, a big frickin' deal. Just three weeks before Election Day, Joe Sestak has closed the gap against Arlen Specter to just two points. Mind you, this is the only poll showing the lead in single digits (much less two points), and Rasmussen has typically found a closer race than other pollsters. But Specter is usually toying with the 50% mark, and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see undecideds break heavily for the Congressman.  Specter leads by 15.5% in the RCP Average.

I suspect this is bad news for Pat Toomey, because I think Sestak would be harder to defeat than Arlen Specter, whom many Democrats probably would have a hard time pulling the lever for in the end.

Connecticut: Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has been all but anointed the next Senator from Connecticut, but his numbers are starting to decline. He leads WWE Empress Linda McMahon 55%-35%, and former Congressman Rob Simmons 52%-38%. These are still substantial leads, but they're the lowest for the AG in four ballot tests by Rasmussen. Rasmussen is the only one who's polled this race recently, so we'll see if others find similar results.

Louisiana: Rasmussen finds that Senator David Vitter, who answered Republicans' questions about “Can it really get worse after this Larry Craig thing?” in a way they didn't like, is an okay bet for re-election. He leads Charlie Melancon 52%-36% in Rasmussen's polling, and by 13% in the RCP average.  Adult entertainer Stormy Daniel is still considering the race, and is set to announce on Thursday.

New York: Quinnipiac finds that former Governor George Pataki is still the GOP's best bet to take on Kirsten Gillibrand, but he hasn't decided what he's going to do just yet. He leads the appointee 45%-40%, and leads by 2.8% in the RCP average.

But Quinnipiac is now the second polling company to find Gillibrand below 50% against ex-Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman, a declared candidate. While she still leads him by a comfortable margin (47%-25%), he's hardly known by anyone, so it can't be comforting to the Senator to know that majorities are at least considering him.

Rasmussen polled Gillibrand against “generic Republican,” and found her leading by point.My first reaction is that this isn't particularly good news for Gillibrand.  My second reaction is that "generic Republican” might be better than what the New York GOP can scrape together.

Kentucky Senate Primary: SurveyUSA has been quiet this polling season, but it has polled on the Kentucky Senate race. It finds that Ron Paul's son, Rand, is leading Secretary of State Trey Grayson 45%-30% in the Kentucky Primary, and that Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo is leading Attorney General Jack Conway 35%-32%. The primary is May 18. Paul leads by 15.3 points in the RCP average, while Mongiardo leads by 5 in the RCP average. This is the best showing for Conway in a while, so keep an eye on this.

Democrats are salivating at the chance to run against Paul, but in this year it doesn't seem to make a difference; Paul is leading both Democrats by double digits in most polling.

North Carolina Senate Primary: Senator Richard Burr is the only Republican incumbent looking particularly vulnerable this season. Three weeks before election day, PPP finds that “undecided” is leading the Democratic primary to face him. Elaine Marshall gets 23% to 17% for Cal Cunningham. We'll probably get a general election poll in the next few days. Burr hasn't done anything particularly wrong, but the state seems to be gradually trending Democratic, and Burr isn't a dynamic presence. Marshall has led in every poll this year.

Governor

New Hampshire: I think I missed this one yesterday, but Governor John Lynch of New Hampshire is starting to look a little bit shaky. There's three matchups, but against former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen, Lynch's lead is down to 47%-37%. Against the other two lesser-known candidates, the Governor, who typically enjoys a 143% approval rating, is barely at 50%. Putting this on the watch list.

New York: Oh goodie. More New York Governor polls. Quinnipiac finds Andrew Cuomo wiping the floor with every potential Republican, with none of the Republicans breaking 30% of the vote. This might develop into something, but for right now, this is one of the few races where the Democrats can feel pretty confident.

House

Gallup released its weekly House tracking, and it is not good news for the Democrats. Among registered voters, the Republicans lead the Democrats 48%-44%. This approaches the largest lead the Republicans have ever had on the generic ballot. This stands in sharp contrast to the 23-point deficit Gallup was sometimes reporting Republicans suffering during the later Bush years. Gallup also shows Republican enthusiasm exceeding Democratic enthusiasm by about the same margin it has all year long.

CNN also polled the generic ballot, and found Democrats leading Republicans among registered voters by four points, 50%-46%. This represents a four point improvement for the Democrats over what CNN had found in previous polling.

Finally, Rasmussen polled the generic ballot and found Republicans leading Democrats 45%-36%. This is consistent with their other polling, and represents a devastating scenario for Democrats. Republicans won nationally by five points in 1994.

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