Presidential Tracking Polls

The President's numbers continued to improve in the Gallup tracking poll.  His disapprove number fell one point, to 42%, while his approval stayed steady at 50%.  He's still a bit below where he was right after health care reform passed, but is up from last weekend.

In Rasmussen Reports, the President's total approve dropped a point to 47%, and his total disapprove inched upward two points to 53%.  His “strongly disapprove” numbers stayed the same, while the number strongly approving fell two points, to 31%.  I wonder if his decision to allow offshore drilling softened up some of the strong support he had earned among Democrats, or made some of his supporters less enthusiastic, such that they dropped out of the likely voter screen.

Senate

Arkansas Senate:  The entry of Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter into the Arkansas Senate race does not seem to have done much to improve the chances of the Democrats retaining this seat.  Rasmussen finds that Senator Blanche Lincoln continues to post Rick Santorum-like numbers, trailing all of her potential opponents by double digits, and earning no better than 36% of the vote against any of them.

Halter trails the various Republicans by smaller margins, but that is only because a number of voters switch into the “undecided” camp when his name is used instead of Lincoln's.  Halter is still a statewide elected official mired at 36%, which is better than being a Senator mired at 36%, in the same way that you'd rather be a turtle in front of a steamroller than an inchworm.

Alabama Senate:  In case you were itchin' to know, Scott Rasmussen found that Richard Shelby is leading his opponent, attorney William Barnes, 59%-32%.

Governor

Ohio Governor:  Rasmussen finds some of the same movement that Quinnipiac picked up in the Ohio gubernatorial race.  Former Congressman John Kasich still leads Governor Strickland, but by a small 1% margin, 46%-45%.  As with the Q poll, Strickland's rebound comes from an improved showing among Independent voters.  Kasich's lead in the RCP average is down to .8%, though again, Strickland can't be too excited that he averages 41.7% in the polls.

Alabama Governor:  Following up on PPP's release, Rasmussen polled the Alabama Governor's race in conjunction with his Senate poll.  He also finds that the Democrats are likely to have an uphill battle winning back the Governor's mansion, though unlike PPP, he finds that Republicans would be underdogs if they nominated Roy Moore, the controversial former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama.

House

USA Today/Gallup becomes the latest polling outfit to show Republicans in the lead in the generic ballot, with 46% saying that they would like to see Republicans take control of Congress and 45% saying that they would like Democrats to take control of Congress.  For a little perspective, in 1994 the numbers were 47% GOP and 46% Democrat.  Mind you, the poll today is of adults, not likely voters.

Miscellany

The USA Today/Gallup poll also shows Republicans narrowing the gap in party identification with Democrats.  28% consider themselves Republicans today, while 32% consider themselves Democrats.  The same poll found that 41% have a favorable view of the Democrats, while 42% have a favorable view of the Republicans.

Rasmussen's Party ID polling revealed the smallest partisan gap for his March polling since 2006.  This year, Rasmussen finds 32.9% of voters consider themselves Republicans, while 36.2% consider themselves Democrats.  In 2009 the split was 33.2/38.7, while in 2008 the split was 32.1/42.1.  The 3.1% gap between Republicans and Democrats for Q1 2010 is the smallest the gap has been since the first quarter of 2006. 

Finally, PPP polled various Missouri politicians.  It finds that Senator Claire McCaskill, who is up for re-election in 2012, has a 38% approval rating and a 51% disapproval rating.  Among Independents, she has a 33%/54% split; in 2006 she carried Independents 51%-43%.  Former Senator Jim Talent, whom McCaskill narrowly unseated in 2006, has a 38% favorable and a 32%  unfavorable rating.

PPP also polled the Governor and Lieutenant Governor.  Jay Nixon's honeymoon hasn't completely worn off.  37% approve of the job he's doing, 29% don't approve, and 34% have no opinion.  Lieutenant Governor Peter Kindler, a potential opponent for Nixon in 2012, has a 22%/18% approve/disapprove.  Those are some nice blank canvases for both politicians to draw on in two years.

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