Special Election:

I thought I should put this one first.  DailyKos/Research2000 finds Republican Tim Burns up six points over Democrat Mark Critz, 46%-40% in the race to replace John Murtha.  Large portions of this district haven't been held by a Republican since before the New Deal.  This isn't the type of district that Republicans have to take in order to take back the House, but it is exactly the type of district that Republicans have to take to do better than they did in 1994.  Obama sports a 38% favorability rating in the district.  This is the second poll  in a row to  show Burns up, in a race that's looking more an more like a pickup.  The election will  be May 18.

Senate:

Illinois: Perhaps not unexpectedly, the Broadway Bank scandal seems to be taking a toll on Alexi Giannoulias.  He now trails Congressman Mark Kirk 46%-38% in the race to replace Barack Obama/Roland Burris.  Although President Obama is still very popular in the state, Giannoulias is upside-down, at 42% favorable/47% unfavorable.  Kirk sports a healthy 52%/31% split.

New Hampshire: At this point last year, I thought that Judd Gregg's Senate seat in New Hampshire would be the hardest one for the GOP  to hold this cycle.  But the Granite State seems to have swung back pretty hard toward the Republicans, after tsunamis in 2006 and 2008 that dragged down the state's other GOP Senator.  Kelly Ayotte has led Paul Hodes in every poll taken this cycle, and has led him  by double digits, approaching 50% lately.  Democratic nominee Paul Hodes's numbers are pretty poor for this early in the race.  This is really looking more and more like a GOP hold.

Delaware: Rasmussen  finds Rep. Mike Castle continues to hold the poll position (I am so clever) against Chris Coons.  65% of the state approves of Castle, which is actually more than the 54% who approve of President Obama.  This 20-point lead doesn't look  likely to evaporate anytime soon.

Ohio Primary: Earlier this week I wondered if the race is starting to break for Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher.  Suffolk University shows him opening up a 55%-27% lead over Jennifer Brunner, so I'm thinking the answer is "yes."  Brunner doesn't have a lot of time to turn this around, and it looks like we're heading for a Fisher-Portman matchup in what I think will be the GOP's toughest seat to hold this Fall.

Governor:

New York:  Rasmussen Reports polled the New York Governor's race, and found Andrew Cuomo at only 55% or so against his competitors.  That I say "only" 55% or so is what you need to know about the general state of this race.  Cuomo won't get the 70% or so that Spitzer got in 2006, but he should still win.

Illinois:  Rasmussen also  finds Republican candidate Bill Brady in the lead against Governor Pat Quinn, who is seeking a full term as Governor after the removal of Rod Blagojevich.  Quinn is upside-down in his approval as well, at 43/50, while Brady is at 47/32.  Things are looking a little bleak for the Governor, though there are still six months to go until election day.

Arizona Primary: Governor Jan Brewer's re-election prospects took a definite turn for the better with her signature of the state's tough anti-illegal immigration law.  She gets 38% of the vote against her GOP opponents, and has seen a sharp spike in her approval rating among Republicans, whereas she was previously upside-down.  This dead woman walking is starting to show signs of life.

House

The UNH release also polled the House districts, and found that Carol Shea-Porter continues to draw less than 40% of the vote against her potential GOP challengers, including some that are pretty much completely unknown.  Needless to say this is not a good sign for the two-term incumbent, which is why she is on our "Leans takeover" list.  In the Second District, former Congressman Charlie Bass continues to lead his potential Democratic opponents pretty handily.

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher appears to be pulling away from his May 4 Democratic primary opponent, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. For the second time this week, a new poll finds Fisher up by double digits. This latest poll, from Suffolk University, has him up 28 points (April 27-29, 400 LV, MoE +/- 4.9%).

Fisher 55
Brunner 27
Und 18

Click here for other recent polling in this race.

After Beau Biden (D) decided against running for his father's Senate seat this year, Democrats warned against writing off Chris Coons (D), the New Castle County Executive and likely nominee. But a new Rasmussen poll (4/29, 500 LVs, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows he still has a steep hill to climb as he runs against Rep. Mike Castle (R).

General Election Matchup
Castle 55 (+2 vs. last poll, 2/22)
Coons 32 (unch)
Und 7 (-1)

RCP classifies the race as Likely Republican.

President Obama has a 54 percent approval rating in Delaware, while 46 percent disapprove.

Rhodes Cook has a good post up at the Center for Politics website exploring the parallels between this election cycle and the 1966 cycle.  It is worth reading in its entirity, but the key graf is this:

For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in '94 – this might be a good occasion to look at another midterm election for instruction, that of 1966.

As now, it was a time of bold presidential initiatives buttressed by large Democratic majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill. A plethora of liberal domestic legislation was enacted, featuring the primary health care reform of the age, Medicare (government-run medical care for the elderly), which was passed in 1965.

But the mid-1960s was also a period of growing unrest – with an economy going off the tracks, an overseas war that was escalating, and a president whose approval rating was sinking after starting around 70% at the time of his inauguration.

I think that's right, but let's consider two other factors:  (1) The economy was starting to feel inflation in 1966, but was growing apace and (2) The GOP wasn't fully competitive in the South at the time, and probably 80 Southern seats that would today be receptive to the GOP were off limits at the time.

In other words, to understand 2010, imagine 1966 with 9% unemployment and a national GOP.

Rep. Mark Kirk's support in the Illinois Senate race increased by 5 points since early April, before the Giannoulias family bank was seized by federal regulators, according to a new Rasmussen survey. In the first survey conducted since the Broadway Bank failure, Alexi Giannoulias' support remains mostly unchanged, though he now trails Kirk by 8 points in the competitive race for President Obama's former Senate seat.

Obama's approval rating in the state is 58%, 10 points higher than the national average.

Kirk 46 (+5 vs. last poll, April 9)
Giannoulias 38 (+1)
Und 11

RCP currently ranks this race as a Toss Up.

Republican Bill Brady has a similar lead in the governor's race, in another new Rasmussen poll. He leads Gov. Pat Quinn (D) by 7 points, as both nominee's support is unchanged from earlier this month.

Brady 45
Quinn 38
Und 11

RCP also ranks the governor's race as a Toss Up.

Each of the potential GOP candidates in New Hampshire post significant gains in the latest UNH/Granite State poll, with former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) performing best. Rep. Paul Hodes (D), meanwhile, fails to draw support higher than 37 percent against the GOP field.

General Election Matchups
Ayotte 47 (+6 vs. last poll, 1/27-2/3)
Hodes 32 (-1)
Und 21 (-4)

Lamontagne 37 (+8)
Hodes 36 (-2)
Und 26 (-4)

Binnie 38 (+8)
Hodes 36 (+2)
Und 26 (-7)

Hodes 37 (+1)
Bender 34 (+7)
Und 29 (-6)

RCP currently classifies the race as Lean Republican.

After the jump, the latest matchups in New Hampshire's two Congressional races, which also feature the GOP candidates on top.

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According to Kyle Trygstad, despite rumors that support for Illinois Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias may be waning in Democratic circles, Democrats in Illinois are firmly behind his candidacy. And judging by his embrace in Quincy, Ill., so is President Obama.

Writing on RCP, Rep. John Carter (R-TX) implores the Obama administration to release information about the Fort Hood attack to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee and argues that law enforcement and the Armed Forces need to be vigilant about preventing similar attacks in the future.

On RCS, Art Spander writes that last night's victory over the Detroit Red Wings brings the San Jose Sharks one step closer to redemption after years of disappointing playoff performances.

Tomorrow is the Kentucky Derby. In just more than two weeks is the Kentucky Democratic primary. State Attorney General Jack Conway has a horse running in the first, and is running himself in the second.

The Washington Post writes about it in a column in the Sports section today.

Running a campaign is hectic enough without adding a racing schedule to it. On April 10, Conway spoke at a rally with the Northern Kentucky Women's Network and a young Democrats convention. Then, that same afternoon, he rushed from Louisville to the Keeneland racetrack in Lexington to appear in the winner's circle after Stately Victor galloped away with the Blue Grass Stakes.

The horse's surprising win was the first time in six starts that he appeared on the board after his maiden victory on the Saratoga turf last September. He went off at 40-to-1 odds and had the largest betting payout in the race's history.

National Journal's politics writer Jim Barnes, who's taking in the races in Louisville this weekend, takes a more political angle on the story.

Today is the Florida filing deadline, and there's still some challenger spots yet to be filled.  Democrats will try to recruit someone to take on Republicans Ander Crenshaw (FL-04), Gus Bilirakis (FL-09) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18).  Republicans have found competitors in every House district in the state.

But the biggest news here is that billionaire real estate developer Jeff Greene may decide to get in the race on the Democratic side, complicating Rep. Kendrick Meek's road to the nomination and forcing him to spend money (this comes just as Marco Rubio learned that he would not have to battle in an expensive primary fight).   Greene has an interesting profile, and his deep pockets will obviously help, but he has some warts as well:  He could be portrayed as involved in the subprime mortgage debacle, Mike Tyson was best man at his wedding, Hollywood Madam Heidi Fleiss lived with him for a period of time, and his family only recently moved to the state.  Still, these factors may come together to form more of the Clinton-esque "lovable rogue" picture than the "sleazebag" picture, depending on how the primary goes.

It is more of the same in Georgia, where Jack Kingston (GA-01), Lynn Westmoreland (GA-03), Tom Price (GA-06), and Phil Gingrey (GA-11) are all unopposed.  John Lewis (GA-05) has yet to draw an opponent as well.

So far, Republicans have failed to field challengers in (by my last count) only three districts, while Democrats have come up short in fourteen.  Both of those numbers could grow today.

After the jump, a collection of some of the other reaction coming in to Gov. Charlie Crist's decision to run as an independent in the Florida Senate race, including Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Mitt Romney.

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