A Quinnipiac national survey finds that having a Tea Party candidate on a general election congressional race ballot could negatively affect the Republican's chance of winning.

Republicans lead the generic ballot test by a 44%-39% margin over Democrats. However, when a generic Tea Party candidate is thrown in the mix, the Democrat receives 36% and the Republican 25%, with the Tea Partier taking 15%.

"The Tea Party could be a Republican dream – or a GOP nightmare. Members could be a boon to the GOP if they are energized to support Republican candidates. But if the Tea Party were to run its own candidates for office, any votes its candidate received would to a very great extent be coming from the GOP column," said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter A. Brown

More voters around the country have a favorable view (28%) of the Tea Party than unfavorable (23%), but most (49%) don't know enough to form an opinion. According to the poll, it "has more women than men; is mainly white and Republican and voted for John McCain, and strongly supports Sarah Palin." They (85%) also feel that the government is doing too much.

"The Tea Party movement is mostly made up of people who consider themselves Republicans," said Brown. "They are less educated but more interested in politics than the average Joe and Jane Six-Pack and are not in a traditional sense swing voters."

Meanwhile, the Democratic and Republican parties are viewed more negatively than positively.

The survey was conducted March 16-21 of 1,907 RV with a MOE of +/- 2.2%, including 253 who said they were Tea Party members.

I know it.  You were just sitting on the edge of your seat wanting to know what is going on in the Vermont Senate and Governor's races.  Well, thanks to prolific pollster Scott Rasmussen, you don't have to wait any longer!  In the Senate race, Pat Leahy -- who believe it or not is technically the only Democrat ever to represent Vermont in the Senate -- looks like a good bet for a seventh term.   Rasmussen's poll finds that Leahy leads "Republican candidate" by a 58%-33% margin.  His actual opponent will likely be lumber store owner Len Britton.

The Governor's race will be more interesting.  Most race watchers, including RCP, categorize this as a Democratic takeover.  But if Rasmussen is correct, we could all be surprised come November.  The GOP candidate, Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, leads the five Democratic candidates, all of whom are quality challengers, by margins of seven to twenty-two points.   The closest candidate to Dubie is Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, who trails Dubie by a 46%-39% margin.  Dubie leads State Senator Peter Shumlin 51%-33%, former Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine 48%-35%, State Senator Susan Barlett 48%-35%, and '06 Lt. Gov. nominee Matt Dunne 51%-29%.

I normally don't highlight polls from pollsters I've never heard of before, but after a twenty minute chat with Gregg Durham of We Ask America, I'm convinced that they know what they are doing and that they are not engaging in the chicanery that can accompany push polls or hidden campaign polls.

In the wake of the Illinois primary, We Ask America polled five races that represent a pretty good cross-section of the competitive races this state will have in the fall. The results are consistent with what you'd expect to see in an environment where Democrats are losing the national vote (after winning it by eleven points in 2008). The polls have pretty healthy sample sizes for House race polls, and have error margins of around +/- 3.5% at 95% confidence.

In Illinois' Eighth District, a nominally R+1 district (remember that Illinois' PVI's are probably a few points to the left given Obama's “hometown hero” advantage; Arizona's are probably the same given McCain's position on the ballot) comprised of Chicago's northwestern suburbs, three-term Democrat Melissa Bean trails Republican Joe Walsh 38.33%-37.61%. Bean defeated Republican Phil Crane in an upset in 2004, and held on in the good Democratic years of 2006 and 2008.

In the open House race to replace Republican Mark Kirk in D+6 IL-10, the third time might be the charm for Democrat Dan Seals. He leads businessman Bob Dold 40%-37% in this collection of suburbs just to the north of the city.

Moving into the Chicago exurbs, first term Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson appears to be in a heap of trouble against former McLean County Commissioner Adam Kinzinger. She trails 42%-30% in the R+1 Eleventh district, which has traditionally sent Republicans to Congress.

Bill Foster, who was narrowly elected to replace outgoing House Minority Leader Dennis Hastert in a 2008 special election held on the same day as the Illinois Presidential primary, is trailing narrowly against State Senator Randy Hultgren. Hultgren leads 38%-36% in the R+1 district.

Finally, in something of a surprise, two-term Democrat Phil Hare leads Republican Bobby Schilling, whom Politics1.com describes as a “Pizza Restaurant Owner and Ex-Factory Worker” by a small margin of 39%-32%. The labyrinthine district takes in the more heavily Democratic areas of northwest and central Illinois, though it is still fairly marginal (D+3). This district is one that many thought would be competitive when Lane Evans retired in 2006, but went heavily for the Democrat in successive Democratic waves.

Obviously We Ask America didn't push undecideds very hard, which is probably appropriate this early in the game. But the overall results confirm that this will be a challenging environment for the Democrats.

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) has not announced whether he will enter the race, but polls continue to find he would be competitive in a Senate race against incumbent Russ Feingold (D). A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Feingold leading by just 3 points.

Feingold has a 45%/41% job approval rating, while President Obama has an upside down rating of 46%/48%. Thompson is not particularly popular, with 40% holding a favorable view of him and 44% unfavorable.

Other potential Republican opponents, Dave Westlake and Terrence Wall, are far less well known than Thompson, and a vast majority have no opinion of either.

Feingold 47 - Thompson 44 - Und 9

Feingold 48 - Wall 34 - Und 18

Feingold 48 - Westlake 31 - Und 21

Indiana Congressman Brad Ellsworth (D) is going to have a tough time getting that promotion to the Senate, if pollster Scott Rasmussen is to be believed. In a poll taken a day before Ellsworth declared his support for the President's health care plan, Rasmussen Reports found that former Senator Dan Coats led Ellsworth 49%-34%, while former Congressman John Hostettler, whom Ellsworth defeated in 2006, led him 50%-32%. State Senator (and RedState favorite) Marlin Stutzman led Congressman Ellsworth 41%-34%.

President Obama has a low 39% approval rating in the Hoosier state, which he narrowly carried in 2008. 60% disapprove of his performance, including 47% who strongly disapprove.  54% of Hoosiers strongly disapprove of the health care plan that just passed Congress.

I have to say, I find Ellsworth's decision to run for Senate puzzling. The national environment notwithstanding, he had a pretty good shot of winning re-election in his home district. He's only 52 years old, so he could have taken a pass and allowed Baron Hill to take the plunge (Hill has good reason not to want to face off against former Congressman Mike Sodrel in this environment), and then waited until Richard Lugar eventually retires. Lugar will be 80 years old the next time his seat is up (2012); even if Lugar ran for re-election, he would be 86 in 2018, when Ellsworth would be just 60.

Maybe Ellsworth can turn this Senate race around, but it is getting pretty tough to see how he does so.

Why did Senator Jim Webb feel compelled to introduce a new bill to "specifically protect military health insurance called TRICARE in the looming health reform package?"  The only logical answer is that the legislation that just passed Congress left military families vulnerable to losing some or all of their TRICARE coverage.

Marco Rubio has increased his lead over Gov. Charlie Crist in the Florida Republican Senate primary by 4 points in the last month, a new Rasmussen survey finds (March 18, 494 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4.5%).

Rubio 56 (+2 vs. last poll, Feb. 18)
Crist 34 (-2)
Und 8

Crist's deficit caused Rasmussen to test a three-way general election, with Crist running as an independent along with Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). Crist finished third.

There's a possibility of at least one exciting race in the Empire State this fall.  If former Governor George Pataki were to get in the Senate race against appointee Kirsten Gillibrand, New York-based pollster Siena tells us that he would currently lead her by a 45%-39% margin.

Normally we would see that as atrocious polling numbers for Gillibrand, but let's remember that she is not your usual incumbent and Pataki is not your usual challenger.  Her 32-29 fav/unfav number is tepid, but a full 39% of the electorate doesn't have an opinion.  Pataki, a three-term Governor, has a 56-33 fav/unfav spread, with only 10% without an opinion.  Unlike most matchups, the incumbent here probably has more room for growth than the challenger.

The filing deadline isn't until July, so Pataki has plenty of time to make up his mind (Siena also tested former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman; Gillibrand leads him by a 48%-24% margin in the poll).

In the Governor's race, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is expected to declare that he is running for Governor any day now.  He leads former Congressman Rick Lazio 59%-21%, though that lead is down from a peak of 68%-22% in December.    He leads Suffolk County executive Steve Levy -- a recent convert to Republicanism -- by a 63%-16% margin.  Near-majorities don't have an opinion of Lazio, while 68% don't have an opinion of Levy.  Given Cuomo's 63%-22% favorable/unfavorable rating, they have a lot of work to do before they truly establish room from growth.

In other New York news, 70% of the state believes that the country is on the wrong track.  David Paterson remains about as popular as a horsefly at a picnic, sporting a 25% favorable rating.  2% of New Yorkers think he's doing an excellent job as Governor.

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will endorse California Senate candidate Carly Fiorina, the L.A. Times reports. Fiorina is locked in a competitive Republican primary and hoping for the chance to take on Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.

“California needs a representative in the U.S. Senate who is prepared to make the tough decisions necessary to address our most pressing challenges, including job creation and national security. Based on my personal experience, I know Carly is the best person to send to Washington to advocate for the people of our great state in the Senate,” Rice said in a written statement. “Carly is an experienced and respected leader who has delivered results for those she has served in the midst of immense challenges. I am proud to endorse her today.”

The two women appeared together on the cover of Fortune magazine in 2003 for a special issue on powerful women.

Some race watchers have penciled in veteran Republican Senator Chuck Grassley as a potentially vulnerable incumbent this time around.  Not if Scott Rasmussen is correct.  Rasmussen reports that Grassley is up 57%-31% over former Representative Bob Krause, 55%-36% over US Attorney Rozanne Conlin, and 57%-28% over state Senator Tom Feigan.

Rasmussen also finds that the health care bill passed by Congress is upside-down in its approval in Iowa, with 45% favoring it and 53% opposing it.  The intensity gap is even wider, with 25% strongly favoring it and 43% strongly opposing it.  President Obama's approval rating is roughly split in the state that began his rise to the Presidency in early January of 2008; 50% approve, 49% disapprove.  Once again, though, the intensity gap works against the Democrats; 26% strongly approve, while 39% strongly disapprove.