"Hands off my health care" was a rallying cry of opponents of the reform effort. Now, Democrats are using that same mantra to target Republicans who are arguing for a repeal of the new law in a series of radio ads being launched this week.

The DNC's radio campaign will also thank Democrats who supported the legislation. The seven-figure campaign will air in 25 Democratic-held Congressional districts while targeting 10 Republicans, some seeking re-election for the House while others running for higher office. Here's one spot running against Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), the GOP nominee for President Obama's former Senate seat.

DNC Ad -- Kirk

Health insurance reform is the law of the land.

But no thanks to Congressman Mark Kirk. He stood with insurance companies and their Washington lobbyists and against reform.

Republican Mark Kirk voted against ending discrimination based on pre-existing conditions, against lowering drug costs for seniors, against reining in premiums and against tax credits for small businesses.

Other GOP targets are Reps. Jim Gerlach (PA), Dave Reichert (WA), Mike Castle (DE) and Joseph Cao (LA).

The DNC offensive comes after several insta-polls reflect a softening of opposition to the legislation passed Sunday night and signed into law yesterday. The party's coffers have been bolstered since then as well, raising will over $1 million even without a targeted solicitation, a party spokesman says.

I wrote nearly a year ago about how Democrats could have a race on their hands in North Carolina if they could only find someone to run against Republican Sen. Richard Burr. Attorney General Roy Cooper and Rep. Heath Shuler both declined to challenge the first-term senator, whose support in polls reached 50 percent in Rasmussen polling at the start of this year.

A new Rasmussen survey, which leaves out Democrat Ken Lewis, finds Burr leading two other potential general election opponents, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, by double digits. The numbers haven't changed much since last month.

Burr 51 (+1 vs. last poll, Feb. 23)
Marshall 35 (+1)
Und 8

Burr 51 (nc)
Cunningham 32 (+3)
Und 11

The survey was conducted March 22 of 500 LV with a MoE of +/- 4.5%.

Our ubiquitous President suddenly gets private.

If you have seven and a half minutes to spare, this riveting video clip of David Murrin on CNBC will not disappoint.

John Avlon, a former Rudy Giuliani advisor who's built himself into a one-man cottage industry by screeching every third day or so in The Daily Beast about the racist wingnuts he claims have taken over the Republican party, reports breathlessly on a  "scary new GOP poll" that reaffirms said wisdom of Avlon, Inc.

Gary Langer, director of polling for ABC News, does the public a favor by pointing out that the poll isn't so much "scary" as it is, well, "bunk."

Public Policy Polling (D) takes a crack at the Ohio Senate race for the first time, and finds that state voters are not yet familiar with any of the three major party candidates in the open-seat race. But in a sign of the current political environment, Rob Portman (R) leads both his potential Democratic rivals in the survey (630 RVs, 3/20-21, MoE +/- 3.9%).

General Election Matchups
Portman 38 -- Brunner 37 -- Und 24
Portman 41 -- Fisher 36 -- Und 23

President Obama has an upside-down job rating -- 40 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove. Both incumbent senators also have net negative approval ratings. And just 33 percent of Ohioans approve of Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) job performance, with 47 percent disapproving. The governor trails John Kasich in an early ballot test.

Governor General Election Matchup
Kasich 42 -- Strickland 37 -- Und 21

After the jump, favorable ratings for Kasich and the Senate candidates.
(more...)

As a follow up to Sean's post yesterday, Jim Geraghty has the deets on another poll (by the Republican firm POS) showing Democrat Debbie Halvorson in a heap of trouble this year against Republican challenger Adam Kinzinger. According to POS, Kinzinger leads Halvorson by 6, 44 to 38, and expands his lead to 13 points among "high interest voters."

Although 2010 is shaping up to be a good year for the GOP in Governor's races, there are a few places where weakened Republican incumbents are likely to be defeated if they do not lose their primaries. Nevada is one such place, where Jim Gibbons faces a spirited primary challenge from former judge Brian Sandoval. Arizona is another.

Jan Brewer became governor of the Copper State after President Obama appointed Janet Napolitano Secretary of Homeland Security. Brewer quickly found that she had inherited a budget crisis, and proposed, in part, a temporary increase in the sales tax to address it. Needless to say, this did not sit well with her Republican base.

So it isn't all that surprising that Brewer trails Democrat Terry Goddard 36%-45%. But Goddard's lead is probably largely attributable to Brewer's unique weaknesses. State Treasurer Dean Martin leads Goddard 43%-38%, while Owen “Buz” Mills – a shooting school owner – leads him 43%-37%. Former GOP state chair John Munger doesn't fare as well; he trails Goddard 42%-36%. The primary is in August.

He still has a long way to go. But the short-term trend line is good for Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) as he runs for Senate. A new Rasmussen poll today (1,000 LVs, 3/18, MoE +/- 3%) shows that he has narrowed the gap in both potential matchups, with Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist.

General Election Matchups
Crist 45 (-3 vs. last poll, 2/18)
Meek 34 (+2)
Und 10 (+1)

Rubio 48 (-3)
Meek 34 (+3)
Und 11 (unch)

The latest numbers in the GOP primary showed Rubio still far ahead, leading 54-36.

Another troubling sign for Crist -- his job approval rating among Floridians dropped 7 percent the past month, and now stands at 45 percent; 54 percent disapprove. President Obama's net approval also dipped, from -9 to -12 (43 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove).

In Pennsylvania's competitive Senate race, former Republican Rep. Pat Toomey leads both of his potential Democratic opponents -- incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak -- a new Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds (March 15-21, 964 RV, MoE +/- 3.2%).

Specter continues to hold a substantial lead over Sestak in the May 18 primary, however more than half of primary voters are undecided -- an increase from last month.

Senate
Democratic Primary
Specter 32 (-1 vs. last poll in Feb.)
Sestak 12 (-4)
Und 52 (+8)

General Election
Toomey 33 (+4 vs. last poll in Feb.)
Specter 29 (-4)
Und 32 (+3)

Toomey 27 (+2)
Sestak 19 (-3)
Und 49 (+2)

Meanwhile, in the primaries of the race for governor, just one Democratic candidate, Dan Onorato is polling outside of single digits -- and just barely. Seven in 10 remain undecided even though the May 18 primary is now less than two months away. Others tested include Jack Wagner, Joe Hoeffel and Anthony Williams.

On the Republican side, Attorney General Tom Corbett holds a big lead over Sam Rohrer, but still isn't polling outside of the 20s and two-thirds remain undecided.

Governor
Democratic Primary
Onorato 11 (+5 vs. last poll in Feb.)
Wagner 7 (+1)
Hoeffel 5 (-1)
Williams 4 (+3)
Und 71 (-1)

Republican Primary
Corbett 28 (+2)
Rohrer 4 (nc)
Und 66 (+1)