The 2012 winds are gusting this week as Mitt Romney makes his first trip back to Iowa since early 2008, when he finished second to Mike Huckabee. Romney's holding a book signing in downtown Des Moines today and later will give a speech at Iowa State in Ames, but no specifically political events.

As the Des Moines Register reports: "It's a far different tack from the one Romney took in the lead-up to the 2008 campaign. By the end of the previous midterm campaign year, in 2006, Romney had been to Iowa a dozen times. He had begun building an extensive statewide campaign apparatus and had given generously to Statehouse candidates."

The Register article also notes that Romney's signature legislative achievement in Massachusetts -- comprehensive health care reform -- is something that's unpopular among Republicans in the state.

And as Politico notes, "Just as health care, or 'Obamacare,' as it is derided on the right, hangs over this year's midterm elections, it is also already casting a shadow upon the 2012 presidential contest – and its GOP front-runner. What was once thought to be an asset for Romney...now poses a potentially serious threat to his White House hopes."

Meanwhile, in another important state in the 2012 GOP primary season, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is also expected to run for president, derided the Massachusetts model for reform in an interview with the Nashua Telegraph.

“Looking at the Massachusetts experience, it would not be one I would want for the country to follow any further," Pawlenty said.

Romney will be in New Hampshire next week, just as the Southern Republican Leadership Conference -- the biggest gathering of Republicans before the 2012 Convention -- kicks off in New Orleans.

The spike in President Obama's Gallup approval ratings seems to have disappeared.   As health care reform moved toward its denouement, the President's approval briefly moved upward, from an upside-down 46%-48% in the March 15-17 sample, to a 50%-43% rating on the eve of the vote.  It went as high as 51%-43% during the previous week.  In today's report, however, the President splits 46%-46% in the poll of adults, tying the lowest approval rating of his Administration.

There are two possible interpretations at this point, and I have no means to settle the dispute right now.  First, it may simply be the case that there was an unusually unfavorable sample taken on the 26th; if this is the case, we should see the President's approval rise in Tuesday's report (notably, we see similar movement in the recent Rasmussen tracking polls).  On the other hand, it may be that in a Feiler-Faster world, the people processed the health care news quickly and then promptly forgot about it, reverting to their pre-signing impressions of Obama.

At the end of President Obama's first year in office, many faulted the so-called "big bang" strategy that had been mapped out, which envisioned quick victories on stimulus and health care to create momentum that would lead to other victories. Instead, health care appeared dead and Massachusetts elected a Republican senator.

But now, one week after the House cast final votes on the reform plan, it seems the big bang is back. It started with a raucous signing ceremony Tuesday, quickly followed by a fairly smooth set of votes in the Senate and House to approve so-called "fixes." That included a major overhaul of student lending, another administration priority. Thursday, Obama challenged Republicans to "go for it" in a campaign based on repealing his plan. On Friday, Obama himself came to the briefing room to trumpet an agreement with Russia on a new START Treaty. And Saturday, the White House took an aggressive stance meant to change the dynamic on stalled appointments, with Obama announcing several recess appointments that had been long blocked in the Senate.

Today, another major move: the president is in Afghanistan on a surprise visit, and will meet with President Hamid Karzai to "to make him understand that in his second term, there are certain things that have been not paid attention to, almost since day one," National Security Adviser Jim Jones told the pool traveling with him. (It sould be noted, the visit may have been in the works considering Obama was to have been traveling to Indonesia at about this time).

The strategy is fascinating, as the administration belatedly seems to be employing a shock and awe strategy to jump start the presidency and the party at a time when it seemed Republicans and tea party activists had taken control of the conversation. Whether it is effective remains to be seen -- there has not yet been a noticeable bounce in his poll numbers. But he'll remain on offense in the week ahead, as he signs the final health care fixes and student loan legislation in Virginia Tuesday, and then travels to Maine and North Carolina later this week to talk about the reform law and the economy, respectively.

With Congress hitting the road for Easter recess, the big news in Washington is that the Wizards' star guard Gilbert Arenas will face no jail time for bringing four guns into the NBA team's Verizon Center locker room on Dec. 21. His sentence of 18 months in jail was suspended; he will serve 30 days in a halfway house, as well as two years of probation and 400 hours of community service, the Washington Post reports.

For more, click over to RealClearSports.

A new Mason-Dixon survey (March 23-25, 625 RV, MoE +/- 4%) finds Marco Rubio leading Gov. Charlie Crist by 11 points in the GOP primary. The margin is some 20 points less than several recent polls found.

Both hold significant leads over Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek, who's still unknown to a majority of the state's voters.

GOP Primary
Rubio 48 (+25 vs. last poll, 6/24-26)
Crist 37 (-14)
Und 15 (-11)

General Election
Crist 50 (+2)
Meek 26 (unch)
Und 24 (-2)

Rubio 44 (no trend)
Meek 29
Und 27

Crist and Rubio will face off in their first debate this weekend on FOX News Sunday.

This morning at Politics Nation, I wrote about how many Democratic offices were reluctant to say whether their member would be holding town hall meetings during the upcoming recess.

Well, Rep. Joe Sestak (D), running against Arlen Specter for Senate in Pennsylvania, has just e-mailed supporters claiming he'll be the first Democrat to convene a town hall meeting on health care after the bill was passed when he does so this Sunday in Philadelphia.

"Joe believes it is part of an elected official's duty as a public servant to explain his positions and provide people the opportunity to have their questions answered," his campaign e-mails.

For the second time this week, a New York poll shows former Rep. Rick Lazio (R) with an early advantage over Democrat-turned-Republican Steve Levy in the potential primary election race for governor. But Marist's latest poll finds that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) still looks like the heavy favorite in November against either candidate.

Primary Election Matchup (217 RVs, 3/23-24, MoE +/- 7%)
Lazio 53 -- Levy 21 -- Und 26

General Election Matchups (775 RVs, MoE +/- 3.5%)
Cuomo 61 (-3 vs. last poll, 2/22-24)
Lazio 30 (+2)
Und 9 (+1)

(RCP Average for Cuomo vs. Lazio)

Cuomo 65 (no trend)
Levy 26
Und 9

Despite the woes of the current and previous Democratic governors, David Paterson and Eliot Spitzer, Andrew Cuomo posts strong numbers. Two-thirds of voters say he's more likely to be part of the solution than part of the problem in state government -- including even 50 percent of Republicans. Sixty-one percent rate Cuomo's job performance as excellent or good, while 34 percent say it's been fair or poor.

Paterson rates much worse, with only 17 percent rating his performance as excellent or good, and 80 percent rating it as fair or poor. Seventy-eight percent of New Yorkers say the state is going in the wrong direction.

North Dakota Governor John Hoeven remains in the driver's seat in his bid to replace retiring Senator Byron Dorgan.  In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll (500 LVs, 3/23/, MOE 4.5%), he leads Democrat Tracy Potter.

General Election Matchup

Hoeven 68%  -- Potter 25% -- Some Other Candidate 2% -- Not Sure 5%

More below the jump:

(more...)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) not only trails against all of her potential GOP foes in a new poll, but now finishes below 50 percent in her primary fight against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). In the Research 2000 poll (600 LVs, 3/22-24, MoE 4%), conducted for Daily Kos, Halter also seems to run a bit stronger versus the GOP, winning two of the matchups.

Primary Election Matchup (400 LVs, 5% MoE)
Lincoln 44 -- Halter 31 -- Und 25

General Election Matchups
Boozman 49 -- Lincoln 42 -- Und 9
Hendren 48 -- Lincoln 43 -- Und 9
Baker 49 -- Lincoln 41 -- Und 10
Coleman 47 -- Lincoln 44 -- Und 9
Cox 47 -- Lincoln 43 -- Und 10

Boozman 48 -- Halter 40 -- Und 12
Hendren 45 -- Halter 44 -- Und 11
Baker 46 -- Halter 44 -- Und 10
Halter 45 -- Coleman 44 -- Und 11
Halter 45 -- Cox 43 -- Und 12

After the jump, fav/unfav ratings for the candidates and other officials.

(more...)

Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R) of South Carolina, running in a crowded primary field for governor, proposes a national constitutional convention.

Planned lawsuits, I am informed by legal experts, will not likely be successful. Repeal efforts, while noble, would most certainly be vetoed by the President, and upheld by his congressional majority. State legislative "nullification" actions will almost certainly be overturned by the courts.

As I have carefully researched this matter to find a solution, I have found but one sure- fire way to overturn the new socialized medicine law: a constitutional convention, called for by the states, as provided for in Article Five of the United States Constitution.

Read his full proposal here (PDF).