In four months, the Kansas GOP will hold its primary to decide who will carry the banner to replace Senator Sam Brownback, who is running for Governor.  SurveyUSA polled the race (3/26/10-3/28/10, 519 Rep. LVs, MOE +/- 4.4%), with the following results:

Jerry Moran -- 42%

Todd Tiahrt --32%

Robert Londerholm -- 5%

Undecided -- 21%

"Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, which did not include Londerholm, Moran is up 2 points; Tiahrt is down 1. In 7 tracking polls, Moran has never trailed."

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner by just 7 points with five weeks to go until the May 4 primary, a new Quinnipiac survey finds (March 25-28, 978 Dem LV, MoE +/- 3.1%). Two-in-five primary voters remain undecided.

Fisher 33
Brunner 26
Und 40

Two-thirds of voters still haven't heard enough about Brunner to decide whether they have a favorable opinion of her, with 56% saying the same about Fisher. As for those who have, 33% hold a favorable view of Fisher and 24% of Brunner.

"Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher is ahead as the candidates enter the home stretch, but the lead is not that large and the size of the undecided vote with a relatively short period until primary election day underscores the potential volatility of the contest,” said Quinnpiac assistant director Peter A. Brown. "And the fact that Fisher is viewed as a better general election candidate appears to be a big reason he is currently ahead."

I recently sat down with Karl Rove for a wide ranging interview about his new book, Courage and Consequence: My Life as a Conservative in the Fight. At one point, I asked him about the damage that was done to the GOP brand in the 2006 election, and when he first knew they were going to get - in the words of President Bush - "a thumpin'." Here was Rove's response.

This marks the first in what I hope will be a daily series running through Election Day, analyzing the day's major poll releases. Emphasis will be on the horse race polling, but if I come across particularly interesting issue polling, I may comment upon those polls as well. These updates will generally run with the afternoon update, and so they will include polls from the previous day that we identified after 3 PM or so. The Monday edition will cover the weekend as well.

Presidential Tracking Polls
The President's approval had dropped over the past few days in the Gallup tracking poll, but today it is up two points, giving him a 48%/46% split. This is still down from the 51%/43% highs from the preceding week, but it lends some credence to the argument that the President just had an unusually negative sample on Friday.

The President also received a little bit of a bump in the Rasmussen tracking poll. He stands at 47% approve/52% disapprove. This is down from last Friday's peak of 49%/51%, but is still significantly better than the 43%/56% split he received just before the passage of health care reform.

UPDATE:  Just as I publish this, I get word of the CNN poll.  It shows a modest bounce in Obama's approval ratings, post health care reform passage.  The President was at 46%/51% in the March 19-21 polling; he is at 51%-48% in the March 25-28% polling.  This is his best showing since scoring identical numbers in the January 8-10 polling.  Interestingly, the President runs a point behind "generic Republican" in the head-to-head matchup among Registered voters.

Senate Polling

Florida Senate:  Governor Charlie Crist continues to trail Marco Rubio in the Republican primary, according to Mason-Dixon.   The Mason-Dixon poll represents the smallest lead for Rubio since Quinnipiac's January polling.  Perhaps Crist's advertising campaign is leaving a mark on Rubio; we'll have to wait for more polling to draw any conclusions there.

Barack Obama's relatively successful showing in the South has inspired a few Southern African American candidates to seek higher office, including Representative Kendrick Meek.  Meek has represented Florida's Seventeenth Congressional district -- a collection of largely African American neighborhoods to the North of Miami, since the 2002 elections.  I've always thought that he would have a difficult time replicating Obama's success.  Obama's success in the South came from a huge number of African American voters turning out to make history by electing the first African American President, and from a large number of white voters being persuaded that his post-racial, post-partisan campaign and multicultural background made him a "safe" vote. Meek has a fairly partisan voting record, and unlike Obama, has not eschewed racial issues, and I don't think "first African American Senator" generates the same enthusiasm as "first African American President."  I think that probably makes him a tough sell to a generally conservative Florida electorate.

The polling in the race bears this out.  Mason Dixon has him trailing Crist by 24 points and Rubio by 15 points.  He has never led Crist, and has led Rubio in one Quinnipiac poll and two DailyKos polls from 2009.  More troubling, Meek has never faced a Republican opponent in his history; it remains to be seen if he knows how to run a tough campaign to turn these numbers around.

New York Senate: Marist's polling shows Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed by Governor David Paterson to replace Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, in great shape for re-election if Governor George Pataki doesn't run.  She trails Pataki by two, but is at 54 percent against former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman and former Congressman Joe DioGuardi.  54 percent isn't a fantastic result, but in a state like New York, it would probably be enough to get it done.  Her only cause for concern, in the event Pataki doesn't run, is her 27%/51% approval/disapprove ratings, substantially worse than Senator Schumer's or the President's.  If Blakeman or DioGuardi can raise some money, they might be able to get it done in this environment.

Hawaii Senate:  I know, I know.  You all have been waiting for this.  Rasmussen found that Dan Inouye would absolutely thrash Governor Linda Lingle in a head-to-head matchup, 65%-25%.  Lingle has not declared, and Inouye has no major party opposition.  We have this as a Safe Democrat hold for a reason.

Florida 2012:  Late last year, Rasmussen polled Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson and found him getting thumped by Gov. Dave Heineman by 30 points.  Mason Dixon polled the other Senator Nelson, and found him faring little better.  Senator Bill Nelson of Florida suffers from a 36% approval rating -- 18 points lower than during his 2006 re-election -- and trails former Governor Jeb Bush 50%-35% in a hypothetical matchup, and current Governor Charlie Crist 47%-37%.  It doesn't help him that 54% of Floridians oppose the health care bill, while only 34% support it.  Given this, the Senator unsurprisingly has a 29% approval rating among voters over the age of 65, with 39% disapproving.  Of course, if two weeks is an eternity in politics, then two and a half years is . . . 65 eternities?

Governor:

New York:  With Governor David Paterson's announcement that he will not run for a full term, the Democrats' chances of retaining the governorship have increased tremendously.  According to Marist, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads former Congressman Rick Lazio 61%-30% and former Democrat Steve Levy 65%-26%.   There really aren't many bad spots for Cuomo in the polling.  Even Republicans have a net positive view of the Attorney General.  Governor Paterson sports a 17% approval rating in the poll.

Hawaii/New Mexico/Rhode Island:  A trio of polls show that the map won't be completely red this fall.  Democrats are the heavy favorites to reclaim the Hawaii Governor's mansion.  Linda Lingle's Lieutenant Governor fails to clear 30% against either Democrat competing for the nomination; both Democrats are over 50%.

Similarly, in New Mexico, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is over 50% against almost all of her potential GOP opponents; the only one who holds her below 50% is, somewhat surprisingly, public relations consultant Doug Turner.  This has to be a little bit disconcerting for the Republicans.  New Mexico has traditionally been a purplish-blue state.  In this environment, one would expect the Republicans to perform a little bit better in head-to-head matchups.   None of the Republicans are particularly well known, which could help explain their lagging poll numbers.

Finally, the Democrats' losing streak of sixteen years in deep blue Rhode Island is . . . looking like it just might continue.  Even without the hapless Myrth York as their nominee (she lost in 1994, 1998, and 2002), they can't seem to pull ahead in polling.  Former Republican Lincoln Chafee leads former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille (R) and Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) with 37% to 26% for the Republican and 22% for the Democrat.  If the Democrat is Treasurer Frank Caprio, the Democrats essentially trade places with the Republicans, for a 39I-28D-22R split.

House

SD-AL: Rasmussen has polled at-large Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, and finds her in a tight race despite her generally conservative voting record.  She leads Secretary of State Chris Nelson 44%-42%, State Rep. Kristi Noem 46%-35%, and State Rep. Blake Curd 45%-33%.   This represents a deterioration in Herseth Sandlin's support; in late February she led Nelson by seven points, Noem by fifteen points and Curd by twenty-two points.  If this is part of a general turning away from Democrats representing red districts, regardless of their degree of conservatism, the Democrats could be in for a very, very long night in November.

Health Care Reform

The Democrats' push to turn around public perceptions on the health care bill is yielding very modest results, according to Rasmussen. 54% of voters favor repeal, while 42% oppose repeal, as opposed to a 55%-42% split last week.

In a wide-ranging interview with RealClearPolitics last week, Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) said he became concerned Democrats would pass health care reform after the Blair House meeting President Obama hosted several weeks ago.

"The Dems seemed to be motivated," he said. "They seemed to be concerned about President Obama and Speaker Pelosi more than the Republicans and the public at that point – and that's been borne out by what Daschle said about it, and others on the Democratic side. That's when I started to get very concerned."

McCotter, chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee, also defended an earlier statement that the reform bill's passage had created a "crisis of consent."

"In the past, the public opinion has been used as a check on the executive or the legislature, or both, trying to implement such reforms. This time is the first time we've seen where the national consensus for what was possible was not worked upon and was actually defied."

McCotter is a fourth-term representative from the Detroit-area 11th District, which gave President Obama a 54% win in 2008. McCotter is a former member of the congressional band, The Second Amendments, and stresses the need for Republicans to close the "hip gap."

"I think that Republicans are always portrayed as – probably Mr. Burns on the Simpsons would be the most obvious example. The reality is that Republicans tend to be very normal people," said McCotter.

"I think this is a safe haven for him. They're all chauvinists themselves. It's a perfect fit. He'll be welcomed. These people have a fundamental disregard for women." -  Martha Burk, who protested the all male Augusta National Golf Club in 2003, on Tiger Woods' return to the Masters.

Since Stephen Strasburg won't pitch for the big club until late May at the earliest, the Washington Nationals are resorting to all sorts of stunts to draw fans. From a press release issued just moments ago:

President Barack Obama to throw ceremonial first pitch when Washington Nationals host NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies on Opening Day

President of the United States Barack Obama will throw the ceremonial first pitch at Nationals Park in Washington D.C. prior to the 2010 season opener between the Washington Nationals and the defending National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, April 5 at 1:05 p.m.

"Opening Day of the baseball season is a special event for our country and its importance has been reinforced by the 100-year history of Presidential participation," said Baseball Commissioner Allan H. (Bud) Selig, who will be in attendance for the historic First Pitch. "I am proud that President Obama will continue the long Presidential tradition of throwing out the first pitch of Opening Day in Washington D.C."

Obama's appearance will mark the 100th anniversary of the first time a U.S. President threw an Opening Day first pitch and the 48th time a President has done so in Washington, D.C. On April 14, 1910, William Howard Taft began the tradition before the Washington Senators went on to defeat the Philadelphia Athletics 3-0 behind a one-hit, complete game shutout by Hall of Fame pitcher Walter Johnson.

Therefore it's only fitting that 100 years later, Washington once again faces their neighbors to the north in a highly-anticipated Opening Day showdown. This year, the Nationals made various changes during the offseason, adding plenty of new faces to the roster including Catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, Pitchers Brian Bruney, Matt Capps and Jason Marquis, and Second Baseman Adam Kennedy. These and other new additions will join Nationals veterans Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and John Lannan, who will take the mound against Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Roy Halladay following pregame ceremonies that begin at 12:30 p.m.

"Across the country, Opening Day is a celebration of the return of hometown baseball and the glorious days of Spring," said Nationals Managing Principal Owner Theodore N. Lerner. "It's a time of renewed hope and optimism for fans everywhere. The Lerner and Nationals family are honored that President Obama will mark that moment with us at the home of the national pastime in the nation's capital."

Obama was overseas last year on Opening Day, but he did throw out the first pitch at the All-Star Game. He better work on his form before next Monday.

The Nats opened on the road in 2009, so Vice President Biden threw out the first pitch on Opening Day in Baltimore last year.

Um, wow:

Once on the ground, FEC filings suggest, Steele travels in style. A February RNC trip to California, for example, included a $9,099 stop at the Beverly Hills Hotel, $6,596 dropped at the nearby Four Seasons, and $1,620.71 spent [update: the amount is actually $1,946.25] at Voyeur West Hollywood, a bondage-themed nightclub featuring topless women dancers imitating lesbian sex.

Marist's latest poll (775 RVs, 3/23-24, MoE +/- 3.5%) in New York continues to poll Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand vs. George Pataki in a hypothetical 2010 matchup. But that race is still just hypothetical, and given that it appears less likely by the day that the three-term governor will make the race, Marist expands its testing and finds that no other potential GOP hopeful comes close.

Senate General Election Matchups
Pataki 47 (-1 vs. last poll, 2/22-24)
Gillibrand 45 (unch)
Und 8 (+1)

(RCP Average for Pataki vs. Gillibrand)

Gillibrand 54 (-4)
Blakeman 25 (-3)
Und 21 (+7)

Gillibrand 54 -- DioGuardi 27 -- Und 19
Gillibrand 54 -- Malpass 25 -- Und 21

The GOP nomination is Pataki's for the taking; without him, it's a tossup. (Note -- Dan Senor, former spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, announced last week he would not run for the seat).

Senate Primary Election Matchups
Pataki 62 -- DioGuardi 7 -- Blakeman 4 -- Malpass 2 -- Senor 2 -- Und 23
DioGuardi 18 -- Blakeman 10 -- Malpass 9 -- Senor 4 -- Und 59

Joe DioGuardi is a former Congressman and the father of "American Idol" judge Kara DioGuardi. Bruce Blakeman is a former Port Authority Commissioner. David Malpass is an economist who advised Rudy Giuliani in his 2008 White House run, and served in the Reagan and Bush 41 White House.

After the jump, job approval ratings for Gillibrand and Sen. Chuck Schumer, up for re-election as well in 2010 without a major challenger.

(more...)

Three new Rasmussen polls pose three different outcomes in potentially competitive open-seat gubernatorial races this fall.

First up, Hawaii. Republican Linda Lingle was the first Republican elected governor in decades, but her lieutenant governor, Duke Aiona (R), has an uphill climb in trying to replicate that success. Democrats have a late September primary shaping up between Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman and recently-retired Rep. Neil Abercrombie, but for now both are far ahead.

Hawaii Governor General Election Matchups
(3/24, 500 LVs, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Abercrombie (D) 54 -- Aiona 31 (R) -- Und 9
Hannemann (D) 50 -- Aiona 29 (R) -- Und 7

Next: New Mexico, where Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) leads all potential Republican foes in her bid to replace the term-limited Bill Richardson (D).

New Mexico Governor General Election Matchups
(3/24, 500 LVs, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Denish (D) 52 -- Arnold-Jones (R) 30 -- Und 12
Denish (D) 51 -- Martinez (R) 32 -- Und 10
Denish (D) 52 -- Domenici Jr. (R) 35 -- Und 6
Denish (D) 45 -- Weh (R) 35 -- Und 13
Denish (D) 43 -- Turner (R) 34 -- Und 16

Finally to Rhode Island, where former Sen. Lincoln Chafee is running as an independent candidate to succeed term-limited Republican Don Carcieri.

Rhode Island Governor General Election Matchups
(3/25, 500 LVs, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Chafee (I) 37 (-1 vs. last poll, 2/25)
Robitaille (R) 26 (+4)
Lynch (D) 22 (-2)
Und 15 (-1)

Chafee (I) 39 (+2)
Caprio (D) 28 (+1)
Robitaille (R) 22 (+3)
Und 11 (-6)

After the jump, Obama's approval ratings in these states.

(more...)