With more than a quarter of the vote tallied in the Republican primary for governor, it appears that incumbent Rick Perry will win the race with more than 50 percent of the vote, avoiding a six-week runoff campaign. Multiple outlets are reporting that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is conceding the race. The results, as of 10:30 pm ET:

Republican Gubernatorial Primary (29.7% Precincts Reporting)
Perry 52.1
Hutchison 30.8
Medina 17.1

Considering what a competitive race this was thought to be a year ago, the result is a stunning defeat for Hutchison, and will be read widely as a rebuke of all things Washington. Perry's message was distinctly anti-Washington, as he made clear in an interview with RCP last November criticizing Hutchison's vote for TARP in 2008.

I'm not running against a United States senator. I'm running against a federal government that is out of control, from my perspective. The key for me is that Texas is a large and influential state. What we do matters to the rest of the country form the standpoint of a being a laboratory of innovation. So when Washington passes legislation that hinders ability to be competitive, I'm going to speak out. And voting for the bailout was one of those things that I think was ill-thought out, has not been productive for this country.

Perry now faces former Houston Mayor Bill White in a race that Democrats feel they have a legitimate shot at winning.

Some good news for Democrats outside of Texas tonight. Democrat Eileen Filler-Corn has a 42-vote lead over Republican Kerry Bolognese in a special election for the House of Delegates in Virginia. Turnout was light, with just over 10,000 votes cast.

If the result holds, it would represent a hold for Democrats in the Northern Virginia seat. The previous incumbent had won a special election of his own for the state Senate, replacing the Republican who became state Attorney General. Republicans had thought they could take this seat; Democrats have now won two races in jurisdictions that Bob McDonnell (R) carried handily in his gubernatorial romp last November.

Moments after the polls closed in all Texas time zones, AP declared former Houston Mayor Bill White the winner of the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

On the GOP side, Gov. Rick Perry is maintaining a double-digit lead over his two challengers. Most significantly, he is above 50 percent, meaning he would avoid a six-week runoff campaign.

Looking ahead to the general election, Perry leads White by 5.5 in the RCP Average for Texas Governor.

UPDATE: The RGA issued this statement on White's victory:

“While we will never take anything for granted, we would be a lot more concerned if Bill White were the democratic candidate in New York where his opposition to the 2nd Amendment, push for tax increases, and staunch support for other items on the leftist agenda might be a bit more palatable. It is going to cost the Democratic Governors Association a lot more than a half-million dollars of trial lawyer and big labor union money to give Bill White's record the extreme makeover it needs.

“Once Texans get a clear picture of Bill White's liberal record, I think they will collectively say, ‘Houston, we have a problem.'”

In a memo to reporters just before the polls are set to close in Texas tonight, Democratic Governors Association executive director Nathan Daschle makes the case for why the party may have a surprising pick-up opportunity in the Lone Star State this November. It should be noted that the memo assumes a win by incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in tonight's GOP primary, something generally perceived as likely, though it's unsure whether he'll avoid a runoff.

The memo calls the likely Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White, an "ideal candidate," while claiming Perry is "strikingly vulnerable." You can read the full memo after the jump.

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New Rasmussen Reports poll of the Arkansas Senate race shows Democrat Blanche Lincoln's rather dire situation improving significantly over the last 30 days, though she still trails all of her potential GOP opponents and can manage, at best, 41 percent of the vote:

Boozman (R) 48 (-6 vs. last poll Feb 1)
Lincoln (D) 39 (+4)

Holt (R) 45 (na)
Lincoln (D) 38 (na)

Hendren (R) 43 (-8)
Lincoln (D) 38 (+3)

Baker (R) 45 (-7)
Lincoln (D) 40 (+7)

Coleman (R) 43 (-7)
Lincoln (D) 41 (+7)

Rasmussen also polled general election match ups with Lincoln's new primary opponent, Democrat Bill Halter:

Boozman (R) 52
Halter (D) 33

Holt (R) 42
Halter (D) 38

Hendren (R) 42
Halter (D) 35

Baker (R) 44
Halter (D) 37

Coleman (R) 38
Halter (D) 35

In a long-expected move, Jerry Brown announced today he'll make another bid for the governor's office in California, which he left in 1983.

Brown says California is "poised for a comeback" as well, but notes it will require tough decisions to do so. The announcement is short on specifics, but he does make several broad promises. For instance, he says he'll impose no new taxes on the state unless voters approve them, and also reduce state government and return "decisions and authority" to local governments.

"At this stage in my life, I'm prepared to focus on nothing else but fixing the state I love," he says.

Meg Whitman's campaign welcomed him to the race by saying they're "looking forward to discussing Brown's 40 year political career." They later sent a release outlining his "fiscal failures" as mayor, attorney general and governor.

One day before he's expected to announce his "way forward" on health care reform legislation -- likely through an "up or down" vote, i.e., reconciliation) -- President Obama is making an overture to Republicans.

In a letter to Congressional leaders today, Obama identifies four GOP proposals from last week's Blair House summit that he says he's open to including in the final legislation. Those proposals include Sen. Tom Coburn's (R-OK) idea of using undercover investigations of health care providers to combat fraud and an expansion of Health Savings Accounts. Obama writes:

Admittedly, there are areas on which Republicans and Democrats don't agree. While we all believe that reform must be built around our existing private health insurance system, I believe that we must hold the insurance industry to clear rules, so they can't arbitrarily raise rates or reduce or eliminate coverage. That must be a part of any serious reform to make it work for the many Americans who have insurance coverage today, as well as those who don't.

I also believe that piecemeal reform is not the best way to effectively reduce premiums, end the exclusion of people with pre-existing conditions or offer Americans the security of knowing that they will never lose coverage, even if they lose or change jobs.

You can read the specifics of the GOP ideas he's open to after the jump.

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Former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s brief foray into New York Senatorial politics appears to have improved Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's standing in the state, a new Marist College poll finds. Before Ford's announcement last night that he wouldn't run, the survey found Gillibrand's lead had increased to 31 points since polling conducted a few weeks earlier.

"Ford's short-lived challenge to Gillibrand not only did her no harm, it may have even solidified her support among Democrats," said Marist polling director Lee M. Miringoff.

Former Gov. George Pataki remains the only Republican to hold a lead against Gillibrand, but the national party considers him a "long shot" to run, as one official told RCP last week. Others tested against Gillibrand are newspaper publisher Mort Zuckerman and attorney Bruce Blakeman, but Gillibrand approached 60% support against both while neither Republican got 30%.

Pataki 48
Gillibrand 45
Und 7

Gillibrand 59
Zuckerman 26
Und 15

Gillibrand 58
Blakeman 28
Und 14

As for Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer, who's seat is up this year, he leads columnist and CNBC anchor Lawrence Kudlow, who's considering a bid, by 45 points.

Schumer 69
Kudlow 24
Und 7

The survey was conducted Feb. 22-24 of 646 RV with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, running as an independent candidate for governor in Rhode Island, leads the field in a new Rasmussen poll (500 LVs, 2/25, MoE +/- 4.5%).

General Election Matchups
Chafee (I) 38 -- Lynch (D) 24 -- Robitaille (R) 22 -- Und 16
Chafee (I) 37 -- Caprio (D) 27 -- Robitaille (R) 19 -- Und 17

Chafee is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters, unfavorably by 37 percent.

Another recent survey conducted by Brown University found similar results.

Quinnipiac's latest numbers in Pennsylvania show good news for Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who now maintains both a primary lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and sports a new lead over former Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

Primary Election Matchup
Specter 53 (unch vs. last poll, 12/8-14)
Sestak 29 (-1)
Und 14 (-1)

Specter leads Sestak in the RCP Average by 18.7.

General Election Matchups
Specter 49 (+5)
Toomey 42 (-2)
Und 8 (-3)

Toomey still leads Specter in the RCP Average by 4 points.

Toomey 39 (-1)
Sestak 36 (+1)
Und 24 (+2)

Toomey leads Sestak in the RCP Average by 9.7.

Against Toomey, Specter leads among independents 45-42. The former Republican gets 15 percent of the Republican vote, while Toomey gets 11 percent of the Democratic vote.

While Specter has retaken a general election lead, only 38 percent of voters say he deserves to be re-elected while 52 percent say he doesn't. His lead, then, may owe to his advantage in name ID; 65 percent of voters say they haven't heard enough about Toomey to form an opinion.

Favorable Ratings
Specter 44 / 43
Toomey 26 / 8
Sestak 18 / 6

Forty-eight percent of Pennsylvania voters approve of Specter's job performance while 45 percent disapprove, largely unchanged since December. President Obama's numbers are also largely static: 49 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove. Support for the health care plan is down, from 41 percent in October to 37 percent today.

The survey of 1,452 registered voters was conducted February 22-28, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. The Democratic primary sub sample of 649 registered Democrats has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.