Georgia Rep. Nathan Deal (R) announced today he will remain in the House until after the forthcoming health care vote. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports Deal was urged by House Minority Leader John Boehner and Gov. Sonny Perdue to do so, despite announcing earlier this week that he was leaving Congress to focus on his bid for governor.

"Just two days after I announced my intentions to leave Congress, the majority party stepped up the schedule for the proposed health care bill," Deal said in a press release. "Having been deeply involved in all health care legislation for the past decade, I knew it was important to stay and vote down this bill."

Here is House Minority Whip Eric Cantor's statement in response to Deal's announcement:

“The Democrats' health care overhaul will affect every single American. If President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and Leader Reid use partisan reconciliation to jam a trillion dollar health care overhaul through Congress and subvert the will of a majority of Americans, we will do everything in our power to give that majority a voice during the vote.

“When dealing with legislation of the size, scope, and cost of the Democrats' health care overhaul, every Member of Congress should be listening to his constituents and representing their viewpoints. Nathan Deal is doing just that, and I join many Georgians – and Americans – in praising his decision.”

We have a gun war brewing between Paul Ryan and Mitch Daniels – in gym terms, of course.

First context: earlier today I posted a picture of Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels exhibiting his biceps for charity. Daniels was featured in my column today: Revenge of the GOP Nerd.

Daniels' press secretary emailed me the pic this morning along with this: "Hi David, read your column this morning. Good stuff. So OK, give you that one, but do any of those other guys have guns like these?" Replete with an image of Daniels' guns, it led to this  post: Indiana's Daniels: the Nerd with Guns. That picture is also below.

Now nerds are a competitive bunch. And so what hath Daniels' wrought? Fellow GOP budget guru, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, was another spotlighted Republican nerd-star. And it turns out, a Ryan ally believes Daniels camp is underestimating his fellow nerds. Thus, this afternoon, I was emailed this Politico story on Hill gym rats and a picture of Ryan. It's Ryan with his trainer:

The bicep pics beg the line, the nerds doth protest too much. But the emails are in good fun. And both sides are having fun.

To veer ever-more into the silly and settle this important issue, RealClearPolitics would gladly sponsor an arm wrestling match with a calculus component. Okay, probably not.

But for all those geek-groupies who would like to compare, here is the Daniels' pic:

The House ethics committee has been engaged in Charlie Rangel-related investigations since Sept. 24, 2008 for multiple allegations -- including tax-related issues. Yet the New York congressman did not step down from the tax-writing Ways & Means Committee until this week after the panel admonished him for accepting corporate-paid travel, which, incidentally, was not part of its original investigations. Those are still ongoing, nearly 18 months later.

Watchdog groups believe the investigations are a show and fail to hold members of Congress truly accountable for their transgressions. As we wrote a couple of months ago, groups like the Sunlight Foundation and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington see little change in the national legislature's ability to police itself.

"The committee is nonpartisan, and in being nonpartisan they do not like to go after members of either party," CREW's Melanie Sloan told me in December.

Sunlight did its own investigation into Rangel more than a year ago and found more financial disclosure issues.

We're still waiting to hear about the first four pieces of the committee's investigation into Rangel: 1) using official resources for fundraising letters sent to prospective donors to the Charles B. Rangel Center for Public Service at the City College of New York; 2) several apartments Rangel leased in Harlem; 3) how he paid for a condo at the Punta Cana Yacht Club in the Dominican Republican and whether he properly disclosed the property; 4) the storing of his vehicle in the House parking garage.

He may be out of the Ways & Means chairmanship, but the ethics committee's slow Rangel Tango continues.

Politico's New Yorkers in residence, Ben Smith and Glenn Thrush, write the story today crying to be written: New York gone wild.

It has occurred to me in recent months that New York has overtaken even Louisiana's infamous corruption. Sure, Illinois has come on strong (Blagojevich). But the latter is yet again, Second City. New York is again the den of vice, impropriety and the corrupted. Boss Tweed would be proud.

As per my story today: Revenge of the GOP Nerd.

One of those uber-political nerds featured is Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.

Jane Jankowski, Daniels' press secretary, grants the point. But she offers one complicating factor.

Her email to me a short while ago: "Hi David, read your column this morning. Good stuff. So OK, give you that one, but do any of those other guys have guns like these?"

The attached pic:

Now, Daniels' was offering his guns for charity here. The image was from a poster Daniels' did to promote Prostate cancer awareness

Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D) has launched his first TV ad of the campaign, which uses Sen. Jim Bunning's (R) decision to hold up an extension of unemployment benefits against his two potential Republican rivals, Rand Paul and Trey Grayson.

"Rand Paul and Trey Grayson? They are shamefully cheering him on," Conway says. "We need to cut spending, but not on the backs of the unemployed."

Conway faces Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) in a May 18 primary.

Rasmussen's latest poll in the Connecticut Senate race (500 LVs, 3/2, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows that Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) continues to hold a substantial lead over potential Republican foes.

General Election Matchups
Blumenthal 58 (+4 vs. last poll, 2/1)
Simmons 32 (-3)
Und 7 (unch)

Blumenthal 60 (+4)
McMahon 31 (-5)
Und 7 (+3)

Blumenthal 57 (-3 vs. last poll*, 1/6)
Schiff 27 (+3)
Und 10 (unch)

*The February Rasmussen poll did not include a Blumenthal-Schiff matchup.

Months after Republican Chris Christie won the governorship, an FDU/Public Mind poll shows some slight improvement in numbers for Democrats in the Garden State. President Obama's job approval rating is up to 53 percent, while 38 percent disapprove. Thirty-eight percent of New Jersey voters say the nation is going in the right direction, up from 35 percent in January.

On health care, 35 percent of voters say they would advise their member of Congress to vote for the health care bill, while 40 percent say they'd urge a no vote and 25 percent are still undecided. Forty-five percent say they think the country will be better off if the bill passes, though only 37 percent think they personally will be better off.

Democrats still have a slight advantage in the generic ballot test; 39 percent of New Jerseyans say they'd likely vote for a Democratic candidate, while 39 percent say a Republican. Including leaners, Democrats lead 47-39; in January, Republicans had a 46-44 edge.

New Jersey does not have a Senate election this fall. Instead, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is charged with winning races for other Democrats nationally as the head of the DSCC. But in a hypothetical 2012 matchup featuring Menendez and state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., his opponent in 2006, Menendez could be at risk.

2012 Senate Matchup
Kean 39
Menendez 38
Und 17

Menendez, who trailed in his 2006 bid, eventually defeated Kean 53-45. He leads another potential matchup against State Sen. Michael Doherty (R), 40-27.

On New Jersey's other senator, Frank Lautenberg, the poll asked if they'd like Gov. Christie to appoint a Republican or Democrat to replace him if he retired before the end of his term. In that hypothetical, 42 percent said Christie should pick a Democrat, while 32 percent want him to pick a Republican. Christie, though, has complete authority to choose a Republican.

The survey of 801 registered voters was conducted February 23 to March 1, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Are Democrats making a comeback of sorts?  Consider the f0llowing pieces of recent evidence:

1) Last week a Quinnipiac poll of the Ohio Governor's race showed Democrat Ted Strickland rebounding to a five point lead over Republican John Kasich, 44 to 39. Quinnipiac's last poll in Ohio, taken in mid-November, had the two tied at 40% each.

2) Yesterday, Quinnipiac's poll of the Senate race in Pennsylvania Senate race showed Democrat Arlen Specter running out to a 7-point lead over Republican Pat Toomey. In mid-December the two men were tied at 44% each, but over the last eight weeks Specter bumped up to 49% support while Toomey dropped two points to 42%.

3) A Rasmussen Reports poll in the Arkansas Senate race released yesterday showed Blanche Lincoln rebounding in a big way. As I mentioned in a post yesterday afternoon, despite the fact Lincoln still trails all 0f her likely GOP challengers and can't muster more than 41% of the vote, she's made significant gains in the last month according to Rasmussen. Lincoln picked up a net 10 points on John Boozman, gained 11 points on Kim Hendren, and rebounded a net 14-points against Gilbert Baker and Curtis Coleman.

4) Lastly, and more obscurely, Mike Memoli reported yesterday that the Democratic candidate in a special election for the House of Delegates in Northern Virginia eked out a narrow 37-vote victory. (UPDATE: Reader BR points out that the Dems won this seat by 365 votes during the McDonnell landslide just a few months ago, so a paper thin victory this week wouldn't necessarily fall in the category of a green shoot.)

Maybe these results are just a fleeting upward tick for Democrats. Maybe they're the sign of something more. As Matthew Continetti points out in the LA Times today, there's an awful lot of time between now and November. And with the speed at which information and political campaigns move these days, we may well see a few more rounds of up and down for both parties before voters deliver a verdict on Election Day - especially with a final resolution of some kind on health care (either a crash and burn or a Lazarus-like, skin-of-the-teeth passage of a Democratic bill) in the offing.

Former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) holds small leads over potential general election foes, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey (Feb. 26-28, 596 RV, MoE +/- 4.0%). With Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue's approval rating now sub-30% and Barnes more well known than the Republicans running, Barnes is out in front by as much as 5 points.

Of the Republicans -- state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, Rep. Nathan Deal, Secretary of State Karen Handel -- Oxendine finishes closest, with just 1 point separating Barnes and him. Meanwhile, all three lead Attorney General Thurbert Baker (D).

“This race definitely qualifies as a toss up right now,” said PPP President Dean Debnam. “There aren't a lot of states McCain won where Democrats can say that right now but Barnes is one of their stronger candidates.”

Barnes 43 - Deal 38 - Und 19

Barnes 41 - Handel 36 - Und 23

Barnes 40 - Oxendine 39 - Und 21

Baker 30 - Deal 40 - Und 30

Baker 33 - Handel 40 - Und 27

Baker 33 - Oxendine 42 - Und 25