With just 29% of likely Republican primary voters approving of his job performance, Gov. Charlie Crist's Senate campaign appears on the verge of defeat. A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Marco Rubio leading Crist in the primary by 32 points -- a stunning collapse of a candidate many assumed a year ago would be serving in the Senate in 2011.

Rubio's campaign is boosted significantly by his support among conservatives, who favor him by a 71%-17% margin. Crist wins among moderates, 49%-36%.

Rubio 60
Crist 28
Und 12

Rubio leads by 16.8 points in the RCP Average

The survey was conducted March 5-8 of 492 GOP LV with a MoE of +/- 4.4%.

Some notes on some of the interesting intra-party races coming in the months ahead.

*In Delaware, 2008 Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell (R) says she'll announce her candidacy tomorrow for the special election in November to complete Vice President Joe Biden's unexpired term. Rep. Mike Castle (R) is still a heavy favorite to win that nomination in September, but O'Donnell is hoping to tap into the national conservative momentum in that race. "Delaware now steps into the larger national drama unfolding between establishment Washington incumbents and their grassroots challengers as the Christine O'Donnell v. Mike Castle primary race is officially launched," her campaign says. Primary September 14

*When former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) entered the race for governor, it didn't scare the whole GOP field off. And now, perhaps Bob Vander Plaats (R) is showing he can give the four-term Iowa leader a race. The Des Moines Register reported yesterday that Vander Plaats beat Branstad in three country straw polls this weekend. “A lot people have already coronated Branstad, but it's a lot closer than that, especially among activists,” Story County GOP chair AJ Spiker told the paper. Mike Huckabee, winner of the 2008 caucuses, has made several stops in the Hawkeye State for Vander Plaats. Primary June 8

*On the Democratic side, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-MI) looks like she'll again face a tough race for renomination. The Detroit Free Press reports that state Sen. Hansen Clarke announced his candidacy in the 13th District yesterday, saying the time "is ripe for a run for the seat because of public discontent with Congress." Kilpatrick narrowly won her primary in 2008 as her son, then-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, was in the midst of scandal. Primary August 3

So close to an important vote, President Obama might have been expected to be traveling Monday to the district of an undecided member of the House. Instead, Obama was outside Philadelphia, in a town shared by three Congressmen who voted for health care reform and show no signs of wavering.

"If you look at where we're going, it doesn't really have an impact on a particular member," White House deputy press secretary Bill Burton told reporters on Air Force One en route to the event. "I wouldn't say that this is about any specific targeting in that sense."

What the White House reportedly was hoping to do was create a sense of momentum behind his proposal, combining a supportive crowd with a particularly fiery speech from Obama.

"I ask you to help us get us over the finish line these next few weeks," Obama shouted at the end of the event, described by many to be reminiscent of the 2008 campaign. "The need is great. The opportunity is here. Let's seize reform. It's within our grasp."

In several interviews at the start of 2010, Obama said that if he were to point to one mistake in his first year, it would be that he and his administration were too focused on the inside game, making what were in some cases critical decisions, but overall failing to communicate with the public at large.

"What they've ended up seeing is this feeling of remoteness and detachment," Obama told George Stephanopoulos just after Scott Brown won the Massachusetts Senate race.

Events like Monday's, and another to come Wednesday in the St. Louis area, would seem to be part of the administration's answer. Sen. Arlen Specter (D), who joined Obama in his home state, said he was glad to see the passion from Obama, and that he wished he'd seen it sooner. (more...)

Republicans lead the governor's races in Colorado, Nebraska and Ohio, according to Rasmussen polls released in the last few days. These three races all fall under different circumstances: Colorado is an open race in which the incumbent Democrat is not running; Nebraska has a Republican incumbent; and Ohio has a Democratic incumbent.

Running in Colorado is Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) and former Rep. Scott McInnis (R). Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) is being challenged by former Rep. John Kasich (R). And Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman (R) holds a big lead in his re-election battle against businessman Mark Lakers (D).

COLORADO (March 4, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%)
McInnis 48 (+3 vs. last poll, Feb. 4)
Hickenlooper 42 (-7)
Und 6

OHIO (March 4, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Kasich 49 (+2 vs. last poll, Feb. 6)
Stricland 38 (-3)
Und 7

NEBRASKA (March 4, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%)
Heineman 61
Lakers 23
Und 14

From the Syracuse Post-Standard:

Central New York's three congressmen, who voted for health care reform in November, are now undecided as President Barack Obama tries to push his top legislative priority across the finish line.

As a result of their concerns about a final bill, Democratic Reps. Dan Maffei, Michael Arcuri and Bill Owens are emerging as a key block of swing votes that could make or break the historic legislation.

For the latest updates on the health care vote in the House, see Jay Cost's whip count.

New poll from GQR/Democracy Corps shows the following:

> President Obama's job rating stands at 49% approve, 46% disapprove. (Among likely voters Obama is upside down, with 47% approving and 48% disapproving.)

> Among likely voters, Republicans hold a 3-point edge over Democrats in the Generic Ballot Question, 47 to 44.

> Only 32% say the country is moving in the right direction, while 60% say we're on the wrong track.

> One in four (24%) voters believe the country is "much less safe" from "foreign threats and dangers" than we were two years ago. Fourteen percent say we are "much more safe" than we were two years ago.

> 19% say America is "much more respected" in the world today than we were two years ago. 26% say America is "much less respected" in the world over the same period.

> Among likely voters, 51% disapprove of the way Democrats in Congress are handling national security, 41% approve. For Republicans, 46% of likely voters disapprove, and 45% approve.

> 38% of likely voters say President Obama is doing "much" or "somewhat" better than George W. Bush at handling the issue of national security, while 33% say he is doing "much" or "somewhat" worse than Bush. On the question of "combating terrorism" and "handling terrorism suspects" 37% of likely voters say Obama is doing better than Bush while 33% say he's doing worse.

Dan Rather pulled a politically incorrect two-fer (to put it kindly) on the Chris Matthews show this past weekend, saying that despite being "articulate" President Obama, "couldn't sell watermelons if you gave him the state troopers to flag down the traffic." Watch the exchange here.

Lord knows if any Republican had uttered the same phrase they'd be excoriated for being a racist. Shouldn't Rather be held to the same standard?

The White House needs this like it needs a hole in the head. After a brutal week for Democrats that included David Paterson's ongoing implosion in New York and Charlie Rangel (in)voluntarily turning over his gavel due to a string of never-ending ethics problems, Rep. Eric Massa's no-holds barred radio interview yesterday has things picking up right where they left off last Friday - and then some.

For those who want the short version: on Friday Massa resigned after news leaked during the middle of the week that he was "under investigation by the House ethics committee for allegedly sexually harassing a male staffer." On Sunday, Massa took to the airwaves and claimed that he was forced out of Congress by the White House and the Democratic leadership in the House because he was a "no vote" on the pending health care bill.

In the interview, Massa delivered a series of broadsides against Rahm Emanuel, reciting two occasions where the Chief of Staff cursed him out - including once when the two men were standing naked in the locker room of the Congressional gym. Massa called Emanuel the "son of the devil's spawn" and said he would "strap his children to the front end of a steam locomotive" to get a vote passed through Congress.

It's useless to debate whether Massa is right or not. We won't ever know the truth in this he-said, he-said. At the end of the day, what's most harmful to the White House is that Massa's claim reinforces a very damaging narrative: that this Administration is run by a bunch of political thugs who do things "The Chicago Way;" that the White House and Democrats in Congress will do "whatever it takes" to pass this particular piece of health care legislation.

To have Massa ripping his party and the administration in such a public way right as they're in the middle of  trying to woo and cajole enough House Democrats to vote "yes" on the the health care bill is at the very least unhelpful and might possibly turn out to be a disaster.

Since Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts, the White House has tried mightily to change the optics of the health care debate, to resuscitate the Senate bill, and to provide Nancy Pelosi with enough wiggle room to get it passed by the House. But Massa's Sunday bombshell, which is lighting up the Internet and the cable talk shows, has the public's attention refocused on the unseemly spectacle of the Democrats in Washington trying to jam through their health care bill over the public's objections.

UPDATE: Looks like Massa's scorching of the earth will continue to eat up more critical news cycles: he'll be on Glenn Beck's show t0morrow afternoon and again on Larry King tomorrow night.

Rasmussen's latest numbers in Ohio's Senate race (500 LVs, 3/4, MoE +/- 4.5%) shows former Rep. Rob Portman (R) holding on to a lead over two potential Democratic opponents, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D).

General Election Matchups
Portman 44 (+1 vs. last poll, 2/5-6)
Fisher 39 (unch)
Und 12 (-1)

Portman 43 (+1)
Brunner 37 (-1)
Und 15 (unch)

President Obama's approval rating is 47 percent, compared to a disapproval of 52 percent. Forty-four percent support Democrats' health care legislation, while 54 percent are opposed. Only 31 percent of Ohioans tell Rasmussen their local representative should be re-elected, and on another question 60 percent say it would be better if most incumbents are defeated.

Kentucky Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D) and physician Rand Paul (R) have opened up significant leads in the primaries for Senate, a new SurveyUSA poll finds.

Democratic Primary Election Matchup (590 LVs, 3/1-3, MoE +/- 4.1%)
Mongiardo 45
Conway 27
Und 19

Republican Primary Election Matchup (454 LVs, 3/1-3, MoE +/- 4.7%)
Paul 42
Grayson 27
Und 19

The Kentucky primary is May 18.

SurveyUSA only released a generic head-to-head for the general election, showing that on paper it could be a competitive race to replace Sen. Jim Bunning (R).

Generic Ballot Test (1,800 RVs, MoE +/- 2.4%)
GOP Candidate 43
Democratic Candidate 42
Und 16

More Kentucky Senate polling is available here.