Tiger Back in 2 Weeks?

So says the New York Post:

Two sources in the golf community have told The Post that Ari Fleischer, the former presidential advisor to George W. Bush and the man who was brought in to help repair the steroid-shattered image of Mark McGwire, has been huddling with Woods, plotting a strategy for his return to golf — at the Arnold Palmer Invitational starting March 25 at Bay Hill in Orlando, Fla.

“They were in his living room this week going over a strategy for how to handle Bay Hill in two weeks,” one source told The Post.

Check RealClearSports to stay on top of this story.


Merlin Olsen, RIP

Fearsome Foursome member and NFL Hall of Famer Merlin Olsen is dead at 69 from cancer.


Mother's Milk Gone Sour in New Jersey

The final tallies are in for the Gubernatorial race in New Jersey last year. Jon Corzine outspent Chris Christie two-to-one the primary and general election campaigns, $31.5 million to $15.5 million. Even those numbers are a bit misleading since Corzine was essentially unopposed in the primary while Christie had a legitimate race on his hands.

Additionally, the Republican Governor's Association spent another $7.3 million on Christie's behalf, which was offset by $7.1 million in spending by Democratic groups on Corzine's behalf.

Despite the $15 million spending advantage, however, Corzine lost by four points.

If you add last year's spending to the $38 million he spent in the 2005 gubernatorial race and the $62 million he shelled out running for the Senate in 2000, Corzine spent more than $131 million - nearly all of it from his own fortune - over his nine year political career.


Delaware Republicans Get Good News

Delaware Republicans got a shot of good news earlier this week when a multimillionaire businesswoman named Michele Rollins announced she was considering running for Congress. The state GOP had struggled to find a candidate who could run on equal ground with former Lt. Gov. John Carney, giving Democrats perhaps their best opportunity to pick up a House seat in the 2010 midterms.

"I'm giving it serious consideration," Rollins said, according to the Wilmington News Journal. "I'll take a week or two and get in front of everybody I can to hear what their concerns are."

Rollins' personal wealth makes her an attractive candidate for the national party, who would prefer to use its funds on races in Democrat-held districts. Rep. Mike Castle's (R-Del.) decision to run for Senate greatly increased the party's chances at picking up a Senate seat, but made his House seat one of the most vulnerable in the country.


Gallup: Half Now Say Global Warming is Exaggerated

Al Gore will not be happy. A new Gallup survey shows that 48% of Americans' now say the seriousness of global warming is "generally exaggerated." That result is the highest ever recorded by Gallup; a seven point rise in last the last year and a 17-point jump since they began asking the question in 1998.

In related news, the United Nations announced yesterday that they have selected the  InterAcademy Council (IAC), an Amsterdam-based organization made up of 15 presidents of leading science academies from around the world, to conduct a "comprehensive, independent review of the IPCC's procedures and processes."

Apparently, however, the group will not go back and review errors from past reports that have caused such an uproar but will focus on recommendations to improve future reports from the IPCC.


How Much Damage Could HC Inflict on Dems?

Republican polling firm The Tarrance Group, in conjunction with the Start Over! Coalition (which appears to be an anti-ObamaCare group) has commissioned polling for the districts of eleven Democrats thought to be potential flippers on the final vote on health care reform. The results for the main question, “do you favor or oppose the health care reform legislation being proposed by President Obama and the Democrats in Congress” are as follows, along with the members' votes on the health care bill the first time around:

AZ-8 (Giffords, yea): 35% favor, 52% oppose, 46% strongly oppose;

CO-4 (Markey, nay): 33% favor, 58% oppose, 51% strongly oppose;

IN-9 (Hill, yea): 31% favor, 52% oppose, 44% strongly oppose;

NJ-3 (Adler, nay): 34% favor, 57% oppose, 46% strongly oppose;

OH-1 (Driehaus, yea): 39% favor, 54% oppose, 48% strongly oppose;

OH-16 (Boccieri, nay): 38% favor, 51% oppose, 46% strongly oppose;

NV-3 (Titus, yea): 40% favor, 52% oppose, 44% strongly oppose;

NY-13 (McMahon, nay): 40% favor, 46% oppose, 37% strongly oppose;

NY-24 (Arcuri, yea): 32% favor, 53% oppose, 47% strongly oppose;

PA-4 (Altmire, nay): 30% favor, 58% oppose, 47% strongly oppose;

PA-10 (Carney, yea): 28% favor, 58% oppose, 47% strongly oppose.

Obviously, any of these Democrats voting "yes" will be doing so in the face of some strong headwinds at home. Majorities oppose the bill in every district except one (McMahon's), and over 45% strongly oppose the bill in every district except for three.

The fact that this is a Republican polling firm (albeit a well-known, very good Republican polling firm) and an anti-health care reform organization pulling together should raise red flags. But the topline question is pretty fair. Arguably putting the bill in terms of President Obama and the Democrats in Congress skews somewhat toward the negative for Independents and Republicans, but I don't think the effect is enough to produce a dramatically different result from what you'd get from the electorate at voting time. Moreover, looking at the self-identified partisanship of the voters at the bottom of the survey doesn't result in any red flags.

The second question: “Would you favor or oppose the Democrats in Congress going outside of normal procedures and using a little used parliamentary tactic known as “reconciliation”, to pass a health care bill, over Republican objections?” is more objectionable; “outside of normal procedures,” “little used parliamentary tactic” and “over Republican objections” all skew the question toward an “oppose” result. Had the topline question followed the reconciliation question, it would damage the entire survey, but it did not. The remaining questions testing beliefs about tax increases and the relative salience of the health care debate for November voting didn't show any particular skew.

Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama have made pretty clear that they're willing to sacrifice some members to pass health care reform. But if these results are typical of the nation as a whole, they're probably looking at over 100 members sitting in districts where the health care reform bill is upside-down. They might lose more than they expect.

UPDATE:  This poll is kind of amusing in light of this recent Yglesias post quoting Tomasky about Rep. Artur Davis:

The district he represents is quite poor, average income around $27,000. I don't know where to find uninsured by congressional district. I'll look. But if the national average for uninsured is around 15%, then Davis' district has to be 25 to 30%, maybe more. And under-insured or provisionally or shakily insured would take us considerably higher.

But by cracky, he's going to make a special trip back to Washington to vote against the interests of his constituents and show all those white voters around the state that he can't be suckered in by that Obama socialism. Disgraceful.

I'm guessing that Yglesias/Tomasky won't think it is particularly disgraceful when a fair number of the representatives above ignore their constituents' interests (at least as those constituents see them) and vote for the bill anyway.


FL Sen: Second Poll Shows Rubio Landslide

Did it really get this ugly that fast?

A second poll in as many days, this time from Insider Advantage for the Florida Times-Union, shows Marco Rubio with a huge lead over Charlie Crist in the GOP primary for Senate.

Primary Election Matchup
Rubio 60
Crist 26
Und 10

The majority of primary voters identify controlling government spending as their top priority, significant because Rubio's biggest weapon in the race has been to hammer Crist for support of the stimulus program.

The fact that Rubio is now doubling the support of Crist is remarkable considering that Crist had led consistently through December, and led by just as much for most of 2009.

The survey of 512 voters was conducted March 9 and had a margin of error of +/- 4%.


Health Care Ad Inifinitum

President Obama said the following about health care on March 3:

Every argument has been made.  Everything there is to say about health care has been said -- and just about everybody has said it.

Three days later, on March 6, President Obama devoted his weekly address to health care.

Two days after that, on March 8, President Obama discussed health care at an event in Glenside, Pennsylvania, telling the crowd, "the time for talk is over."

Today, just two days later, Obama is speaking again about health care in St. Louis, Missouri.

If everything's been said, every argument has been made, and the time for talk is over, why is President Obama continuing to talk ad infinitum about health care?


WA Sen Poll: Rossi Ahead As He Considers Murray Challenge

Third time's the charm? Dino Rossi nearly won the governorship in Washington in 2004, only to see Christine Gregoire inch ahead after a series of recounts. He lost a rematch in 2008. Now, he seems increasingly tempted by the idea of challenging Sen. Patty Murray (D), and Rasmussen's latest poll (500 LVs, 3/9, MoE +/- 4.5%) continues to show him as the GOP's strongest candidate.

General Election Matchup
Rossi 49 (+1 vs. last poll, 2/11)
Murray 46 (unch)
Und 2 (-3)

Murray 48 (-2)
Benton 37 (-1)
Und 12 (+3)

Murray 49 (unch)
Didier 30 (-4)
Und 15 (+2)

Murray 47 (-1)
Widener 32 (-1)
Und 16 (+2)

Murray's favorables are still strong, at 53 / 41. Washingtonians are split on President Obama's job performance, with 50 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving. Just 40 percent approve of Gregoire, however, and 60 percent disapprove.


NH Sen Poll: Hodes Trails Two Potential GOP Foes

Rasmussen's latest numbers in New Hampshire (500 LVs, 3/8, MoE +/- 4.5%) show Rep. Paul Hodes (D) continues to trail against two of his potential Republican opponents in November.

General Election Matchups
Ayotte (R) 47 (+1 vs. last poll, 2/10)
Hodes (D) 37 (-2)
Und 12 (-1)

Binnie (R) 46 (+4)
Hodes (D) 36 (-5)
Und 14 (+1)

Hodes (D) 42 (-2)
Lamontagne (R) 38 (unch)
Und 15 (+2)

President Obama's approval rating is now at 48 percent in the Granite State, with disapproval at 52 percent. Gov. John Lynch (D) remains very popular as he looks at a fourth term, with 63 percent approving and 36 percent disapproving.



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