Kosmas On the Fence

Alex Leary of the St. Petersburg Times has a long profile of undecided house Democrat, Suzanne Kosmas. Key grafs:

Kosmas, whose district narrowly favored John McCain over Barack Obama, voted against the House plan in November, one of only 39 Democrats overall to do so and two in Florida.

(The other was Rep. Allen Boyd of Monticello, who is considered to be leaning no this time, too.)

Back then, Pelosi could afford to give some members political cover. But the tumultuous weeks since then have changed things dramatically. So much so that even the president has come calling on Kosmas.

She was invited to a one-on-one meeting in the Oval Office last Thursday. "We had a very open dialogue," Kosmas, 66, said in a brief interview this week.

"I'm still waiting to see what the bill is going to be and the content, as well as the process," she said.


CT Gov Poll: Lamont, Foley Lead Primaries

Close to half of voters remain undecided in both primary races for Connecticut governor, according to a new Quinnipiac survey. Former ambassador Tom Foley (R) wins 30% support, while 50% are undecided and no other candidate receives more than 4%. On the Democratic side, Ned Lamont takes 28% to Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy's 18%, as 44% say they're undecided.

“Like Linda McMahon, Tom Foley is the only candidate for governor who is on TV, which helps him break away from the Republican pack. Even Foley, however, is largely unknown to Republicans and the big winner is still undecided,” said Quinnipiac polling director Douglas Schwartz.

Dems
Lamont 28 (+1 vs. last poll, Jan. 21)
Malloy 18 (+7)
Others 7
Und 44 (nc)

GOP
Foley 30 (+13 vs. last poll, Jan. 21)
4 Others 12
Und 50 (-9)

The March 9-15 survey was conducted of 1,451 RV with a MoE of +/- 2.6%.


Obama's FOX Mistake

After waging war against Fox News for months, President Obama's decision to appear on the network just days before a critical vote on his health care proposal was above all a sign of desperation and an admission that Democrats do not yet currently have the votes to pass the crown jewel of his domestic agenda. What, exactly, did the President hope to accomplish last night? Did he think a strong performance would possibly influence some undecided moderate Democrats, many of whom have plenty of constituents who watch Fox regularly? That seems an out-sized ambition, even for a President who maintains unlimited confidence in his ability to speak and persuade.

Whatever the case, I think it was a mistake by the President to go on Fox last night and I do not think he helped himself or his cause with the interview.  Obama came across as both dismissive and non-responsive to Brett Baier's insistent questioning about the process.  He implicitly approved using parliamentary gymnastics to pass the Senate bill, and he didn't provide very specific or convincing answers about which "special deals" will be included in the final legislation.  In the end, he repeated familiar bromides about the benefits and centrist nature of his plan, all of which the public has heard ad nauseam for months and few of which they appear to believe. President Obama offered nothing new, either in substance or tone, that would grab someone whose mind is still open on the issue of health care (and there aren't many left after a full year of debating the issue) and convince them to support his legislation.

Again, given Obama's past war against Fox, the current stakes involved,  and without having something fresh to say, I would never have advised the President to do this interview.  It put him in a position to gain very little, and given the timing of the health care vote, it made it appear as if the President was forced to do an interview he would have rather not done. It framed the interview as coming from a position of weakness and desperation, rather than strength and confidence.


Whipping AZ Dems on Health Care

Dan Nowicki of the Arizona Republic reports:

Democratic Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords remain on a dwindling list of undecided lawmakers, although Giffords has signaled she will vote "yes" if the final version fixes problems with the bill passed by the Senate in December. Both lawmakers are under scrutiny as they brace for potentially tough re-election fights in their swing congressional districts.

Ann Kirkpatrick, who represents the First Congressional District formerly held by Republican Rick Renzi, has already said she'll vote yes. Democratic Reps. Ed Pastor and Raul Grijalva are both liberals from solidly Democratic districts who have been grumbling about not having a public option but will both almost certainly vote "yes" in the end.


“Bret, Let Me Finish ..."

President Obama's interview with Fox News Channel was, in a word, contentious. In an interview that clocked in just under 20 minutes, Bret Baier asked the president about the procedural methods Democrats are exploring to pass health reform, the special deals included in the legislation, and what the impact would be on his presidency. And by my count, Baier interrupted the president no less than a dozen times as Obama's answers veered off the controversial to the familiar talking points. This exchange was typical of it:

OBAMA: “Brett, you've got to let me finish my answers."
BAIER: "Sir, I know you don't like the filibuster. ... "
OBAMA: "I'm trying to answer your questions and you keep on interrupting. So let me be clear. ...”

As it ended, Baier apologized for having interrupted him so often. "That's okay, that's your job," Obama responded. But his frustration -- something he has tended not to mask well -- was clear.

You can watch some of the interview over at the RCP Video page. Fox has also posted a transcript.


GOP's Bicameral Opposition

Thursday will be a day of bicameral comaraderie in the Republican Party, as the two chambers will meet in a closed-door morning session in the House chamber to discuss health care reform. Later in the day, three Republicans from both the House and Senate will hold a press conference to discuss the issue of abortion in the Senate bill, which has at least a dozen House Democrats questioning whether they can support it.

Tomorrow's showing comes as both parties push and pull on both the substance of the bill and the process of passing health care reform. Democrats continue to wait for scoring from the Congressional Budget Office, which will estimate whether the reconciliation bill cuts the deficit by the specified amount outlined yesterday by Speaker Pelosi -- $100 billion over the first 10 years and $1 trillion over the next 10.


Obama Goes Upside Down in Gallup Tracking

A rather dramatic swing in the Gallup Daily Tracking poll has put President Obama's job rating upside down for the first time, with more Americans now disapproving of job he's doing than approving.  According to today's numbers, which represent a rolling average of surveys taken over the past three days, 47%  say they disapprove of Obama while 46% approve. That's a net five-point change from yesterday's reading of 48% approve and 44% disapprove, which is a pretty substantial move for a tracking poll. It means the President probably suffered a combination of a good day of polling dropping off the back end of the rolling average while adding a bad day of polling to the front end.

Of course, the President's numbers could easily snap right back, and in general it's best to take a long view of tracking polls rather than react to day-to-day fluctuations. Nevertheless, just as when Obama first dropped below 50 percent in the Gallup, it's a rather inauspicious milestone for any President to reach, and perhaps especially so for the current one given the heights at which he started just fifteen months ago.


CA Gov Poll: Whitman Surges Ahead

A new Field Poll finds that Meg Whitman not only crushes her GOP primary foe in the race for governor of California, but she now leads former governor and Attorney General Jerry Brown in the general election.

"Whitman has gained momentum as she's blanketed the state in TV ads touting her decade-long tenure as CEO of the online auction firm eBay and listing reasons 'why we can't trust Steve Poizner,' " the Sacramento Bee reports.

GOP Primary
Whitman 63 (+18 vs. last poll, Jan. 17)
Poizner 14 (-3)

General Election
Whitman 46 (+10 vs. last poll, Jan. 17)
Brown 43 (-3)

The survey of 748 LV was conducted March 9-15 with a MoE of +/- 3.7%.

UPDATE: Rasmussen also has new general election numbers in California (500 LVs, 3/15, MoE +/- 4.5%), also showing a tight race.

Brown 40 (-3 vs. last poll, 2/15)
Whitman 40 (-3)
Und 14 (+6)

Brown 42 (-4)
Poizner 27 (-7)
Und 18 (+5)


CT Sen Poll: McMahon Takes Primary Lead

Professional wrestling executive Linda McMahon has surged into the Republican primary lead in the race for Connecticut's open Senate seat, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. McMahon and former Rep. Rob Simmons still trail presumed Democratic nominee Richard Blumenthal by more than 30 points.

"What explains Linda McMahon's rise in the polls? Money. She is the only Senate candidate on TV right now. She quickly has become as well-known and well-liked among Republicans as the former frontrunner for the Republican nomination, three-term Congressman Rob Simmons," said Quinnipiac polling director Douglas Schwartz.

GOP Primary
McMahon 44 (+17 vs. last poll, Jan. 14)
Simmons 34 (-3)
Schiff 9
Und 12

Attorney General Blumenthal's approval rating remains near 80 percent, which will make the general election a difficult proposition for any of the candidates, no matter their financial situation. "It is very hard to change the public's opinion of an elected official they have known and liked for 20 years," said Schwartz.

General Election
Blumenthal 61 (-3 vs. last poll, Jan. 14)
McMahon 28 (+5)
Und 10

Blumenthal 62 (nc)
Simmons 26 (-1)
Und 10

Blumenthal 64 (-2)
Schiff 21 (+2)
Und 13

Blumenthal leads Simmons by 28.0 points and McMahon by 29.0 points in the RCP Average.

The survey was conducted March 9-15 of 1,451 RV with a MoE of +/- 2.6%.


How Will Kucinich Vote?

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the House Democratic Caucus are waiting for scoring from the Congressional Budget Office to decide when to hold a vote on health care reform and find out who exactly is going to vote for it.

However, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) is announcing his vote at a 10 a.m. press conference today. The liberal Kucinich has been considered a "No" for some time, as he felt the bill did not go far enough, but some recent White House vote whipping could have helped change his mind.

Kucinich took a ride on Air Force One on Monday, as President Obama visited a town in his Cleveland-based district to rally health care reform supporters. When Obama introduced Kucinich, one audience member yelled, "Vote yes!" That led Obama to say, "Did you hear that, Dennis?"

Calling a press conference could be a sign he's changing his vote, though DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen said last night on MSNBC's "Hardball" that he did not know what Kucinich was planning to do.

Should Kucinich jump on board, that could be a sign other liberal Dems still holding out for their reform priorities are soon to follow.

UPDATE, 10:12 a.m.: Kucinich announced he will in fact support the bill.



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