Amid a rumor that he would be switching his vote in exchange for a promise to be appointed administrator of NASA, Democrat Bart Gordon of Tennessee announced today that he will indeed be voting to pass the Senate plan under whatever procedure is used in the House. Gordon's statement reads, in part:

In the end, the question I'm faced with is this: will this reform be better for Middle Tennessee than the status quo? I think it will. That's why I believe passing meaningful health care reform is essential and why I have made my decision to help ensure health care is affordable for Middle Tennesseans today and for generations to come.”

Here's something to help you appreciate the irony of Gordon's statement. Just a few months ago, in October of last year, as both the House and the Senate were considering health care in earnest, the Democratic Governor of Tennessee, Phil Bredesen, wrote a letter to Gordon and to Republican Senator Bob Corker warning that the mandates included in the Democratic health care plans, if passed, would burden the already cash strapped state with an additional $750 million worth of entitlement spending.  Bredesen wrote:

Bob and Bart, the problem that we're facing is simple: by 2013, we expect to have returned to our 2008 levels of revenue and will have already cut programs dramatically - over a billion dollars. At that point, we have to start digging out - we will have not given raises to state employees or teachers for five years, our pension plans will need shoring up, our cash reserves ("rainy day fund") will have been considerably depleted and in need of restoration, and we will not have made any substantial new investments in years. There will have been major cuts to areas such as Children's Services that we really need to restore. On top of these, there are all the usual obligations to be met - Medicaid, for example, will continue to grow at rates in excess of the economy and our tax revenues. It's going to take at least a full decade to dig our way out and back to where we were prior to the recession.

In this environment, for the Congress to also send along a mandatory bill for three quarters of a billion dollars for the health reform they've designed is very difficult. These are hard dollars - we can't borrow them - and make the management of our finances post-recession even more daunting that it already is.

In other words, the mandated spending in the Democrats' health bill would further undermine Tennessee's already precarious financial situation. That's one of the reasons Bart Gordon voted against the original House bill.  But nothing has changed about the Democrats' bills since Phil Bredesen wrote this letter - except Bart Gordon's vote.

UPDATE: Wait, something else changed:

Democrats unveiling revisions Thursday to their health-care overhaul bill decided to kill the extra $100 million in Medicaid funds for Nebraska that has become a symbol of backdoor deal making. But the 153 pages of changes to the package include an additional $99 million in 2012 and 2013 for Tennessee hospitals that treat many poor people.

Retiring Rep. Bart Gordon, D-Tenn., has fought for the funds for years to bring the state's aid up to par with the rest of the country, spokeswoman Emily Phelps said. She said their inclusion had nothing to do with his announcement Thursday that he will vote for the final health legislation after opposing an earlier version in November.

So Gordon cut a special deal for $100 million for Tennessee to try and help offset the crushing $750 million in mandates Governor Bredesen warned about.

Maybe it's time for Marco Rubio (R) to turn his attention from Gov. Charlie Crist (R) to Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 survey finds Rubio once again crushing Crist in Florida's Republican primary for Senate. However, Rubio faces a far closer general election race in which he currently holds just a 1-point lead over Meek, the likely Democratic nominee.

GOP Primary
Rubio 58 - Crist 30

General Election
Crist 45 - Meek 36 - Und 19

Rubio 41 - Meek 40 - Und 19

In the governor's race, the survey found Republican Bill McCollum with a 6-point lead over Democrat Alex Sink, with a quarter of voters still undecided.

McCollum 41 - Sink 35 - Und 24

The survey was conducted March 15-17 of 600 LV with a MoE of +/- 4%.

But the real story is found in the 222-203 roll call vote.  I'm not sure what to make of this.  The "no" votes are a veritable "who's who" of undecideds and leaners on the underlying healthcare vote:  Mitchell, Adler, Nye, Periello, Kosmas, Carney, Childers, Cooper, Teague, and Dahlkemper all voted against it.  On the other hand, people thought to be "yeas" voted no: Giffords, Michaud and McNerney.  On yet another hand, some people thought to be hard "noes" voted "yea": Boucher, Chandler, Donnelly, Kaptur, Lynch, Marshall.  And finally, a bunch of fence-sitters voted yes: Altimre, Baird, Barrow (also listed as a "no"), Bean, Berry, Boccieri, Boyd, Capuano, Cuellar, Lincoln Davis, Ellsworth, etc.

In the end, you probably can't read too much into this.  It's a procedural vote, and some of the members will probably be eventual "nays" who wanted to support the leadership on a tough procedural vote.  Some of the members are probably voting "nay" so that they can say, I tried to stop the Slaughter rule, and preferred and up-down vote, but I had no choice.   The real action will be this weekend (probably), and is still very much up in the air.

Still deciding whether to run, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) holds a slim lead over Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in a hypothetical Senate matchup, according to Rasmussen (March 16, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Thompson led by 5 points a month ago, but now leads by just 2 points -- a statistical tie.

Feingold increased his leads over two other potential GOP opponents, Dave Westlake and Terrence Wall.

Thompson 47 (-1 vs. last poll, Feb. 17)
Feingold 45 (+2)
Und 4

Feingold 51 (+4)
Westlake 35 (-2)
Und 10

Feingold 49 (+2)
Wall 40 (+1)
Und 7

Click here to see previous polling for this race.

Yesterday I noted that President Obama's job approval rating in the Gallup tracking poll went upside down for the first time. Today, with Gallup's rating staying  upside down and with the addition three new polls in the last 24 hours (NBC/WSJ, Pew, and Fox News), Obama's job approval in the RCP Average has gone net negative for the first time ever as well. Currently 47.3% of those surveyed approve of the job Obama is doing as President, while 47.8% disapprove.

As Democrats continue to look for enough votes to pass health care reform out of Congress, a new Pew Research survey finds that nearly half of Americans still oppose the party's proposal. Still, more people say their health care costs will rise if the nation's health care system stays the same than if the bill currently being debated is passed.

On the Dems' plan, 38% favor it and 48% oppose it, which is similar to last month's 38%/50% result. Just 62% of Democrats and 32% of independents favor the bill.

In the RCP Average, 41.1% favor the Dems' plan and 48.6% oppose it.

If it passes, 51% say their personal health care costs will increase, while 63% say their costs will increase if it fails and the system is unchanged.

The result shows an intersting dynamic for Democrats, as the public clearly believes something needs to be done but the majority are not sold on what the party has offered.

President Obama remains more popular than congressional leaders of either party, though his approval rating is at a relatively low 46%. He continues to be seen in a positive light, as 61% say he is inspiring and 54% say he makes them feel hopeful.

Obama now has a 48.6% RCP Average job approval rating, with 46.7% disapproving.

Democratic leaders in Congress receive a 31% approval rating, while GOP leaders are at 25%. When asked to describe Congress in one word, the words offered up most frequently were: dysfunctional, inept, self-serving and corrupt.

The survey was conducted March 10-14 of 1,500 A.

Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Rep. J.D. Hayworth are locked in a heated Republican primary, and a new Rasmussen poll finds the two are indeed in a tight race (March 16, 541 GOP LV, MoE +/- 4%).

McCain 48
Hayworth 41
Und 8

Speaker Nancy Pelosi said this week that Democrats would not move forward with health care reform if scoring on the bill from the Congressional Budget Office found it would not decrease the deficit by $100 billion over the first 10 years and $1 trillion over the second 10 years.

Well, CBO released its report this morning, and House Democrats say it shows they came in under budget. The bill would cost $940 billion, and it would reduce the deficit by $130 billion in the first 10 years and $1.2 trillion in the second 10.

The bill, which will be unveiled this morning, is expected to be voted on sometime Sunday.

"Californians could be in for a barnburner this year," the Sacramento Bee reports on a new Field Poll.

With her favorable rating on the decline, Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D) Republican opponents have caught up to the third-term senator who won with 58% in 2004. Meanwhile, former Rep. Tom Campbell leads former HP CEO Carly Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the June 8 GOP primary, with two-in-five voters remaining undecided.

"Formerly, I would have said this is in the Democratic column, but I would say now it's got to be moved into the tossup column," said Field polling director Mark DiCamillo. "There just seems to be a turning of voter opinions. I think a lot of it has to do with the Congress."

GOP Primary
Campbell 28
Fiorina 22
DeVore 9
Und 40

General Election
Campbell 44 - Boxer 43 - Und 13

Boxer 45 - Fiorina 44 - Und 11

Boxer 45 - DeVore 41 - Und 14

The March 9-15 survey was conducted of 748 LV with a MoE of +/- 3.7%. For the primary, 353 GOP LV were surveyed with a MoE of +/- 5.5%.

Another profile of undecided House Dems, this one from Kyung M. Song of the Seattle Times on Washington State Reps. Brian Baird and Adam Smith:

Of all the congressional Democrats who might vote no in the impending health-care showdown in the House, perhaps few could do it with more impunity than Rep. Brian Baird.

Baird, of Vancouver, already did so once as one of 39 Democrats who opposed health-care legislation that passed the House in November by 220-215. And he's retiring after this year, gaining a lame-duck shield that would seem to inure him to any wrath from his own party.

But Baird being Baird, he just might switch his vote.

Song reports that Baird met with Obama in the Oval Office this past week, his first such visit in 12 years in office.

As to Smith, Song writes:

In addition to Baird, the focus has fallen on Rep. Adam Smith, D-Tacoma, who voted yes last year but is now wavering. Smith said he likes many parts of the Senate bill now before the House, including its lower price tag, but is waiting to see the yet-to-be-released amendments before deciding how he'll vote.

The four other House Democrats from Washington say they plan to either vote yes or are leaning that way. The state's three Republicans remain an emphatic "no."