I remember back in 2004 when I started blogging, when I would get two or three polls a day and think “man, it's October now.  Things are picking up.”  I guess March is the new October.

Presidential Tracking Polls

After a bit of rough news in the recent rounds of Generic Congressional Ballot tests, Democrats got some good news today in the Presidential tracking polls.

Gallup showed President Obama up two points today, to a 50%/43% approve/disapprove.  That's a substantial improvement over this past weekend.

What makes this interesting is that Rasmussen showed similar movement.  Obama's overall approval numbers improved to 48% (up from 43% on the 20^th) and his total disapproves are at 51% (down from 56% on the 20^th).  This shows probably a two-to-three point improvement in the President's approval numbers setting in over their lows earlier in the month.  What is more dramatic is the three percent jump in “strong approves” from yesterday, up eleven points since two weeks ago.  The +8 between “strong approves” and “strong disapproves” is the President's best showing since early February.

Rasmussen explains:

The bounce in approval for the President has come from a strong increase in enthusiasm among Democrats. Currently, 65% of Democrats Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing. That's up from the mid-to-low 40 percent range before passage of the health care legislation.

However, firing up the Democratic base may also carry a cost for the President. Currently, just 19% of unaffiliated voters Strongly Approve while 45% Strongly Disapprove. Those numbers are a bit weaker for the President than they were before the health care bill passed.

This is the double-edged sword for Democrats.  In 2006, Republicans turned out their base almost as strongly as they did in 2004, and yet they lost 30 House seats because Independents turned against them.  Democrats need to find a way to keep their base energized without further alienating Independents.  It's a tall order.

Marist's poll of registered voters shows the President with a tepid 46% approve/43% disapprove.  43% of registered voters see the country on the right track, 53% on the wrong track.  Once again, the President's approval numbers are worse for specific issues; the split is 46%/49% on the economy and 41%/53% on health care.

Senate

Ohio Senate: Last night I was talking with a friend of mine, and mentioned that I thought that the Ohio Senate seat would be the toughest open seat for the GOP to keep.  Like Missouri, it features a professional politician running in a change election with ties to the Bush years.  Like Florida, (and unlike Missouri) it features a state that Barack Obama carried handily in the previous election.  Merge those two factors together, and you have a combination hard to find in any other Republican state this cycle.  Throw in the fact that the Republican was President Bush's trade representative in a rust belt state, and you see why I see a scenario where this becomes an uphill climb for the GOP by the end of the cycle.

Quinnipiac buttresses this view today with a survey showing that Lieutenant Governor (and primary frontrunner) Lee Fisher leads former OMB director and US Trade Representative Rob Portman 41%-37%.  Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner leads Portman 38%-37%.  Quinnipiac ascribes this to an improved standing for Democrats among Independents, something few other polls are showing.

It is probably worth noting that no other poll has shown Fisher leading Portman since . . . Quinnipiac's September polling.  The same is true of Brunner.  It's also worth noting that, while Quinnipiac is a very good, nonpartisan polling company, its results from last cycle for Ohio tended to skew a few points toward the Democrats when compared to other pollsters in the field at the same time – sometimes significantly so.

Portman leads both Brunner and Fisher by 2 in the RCP Average.

Idaho Senate:  A March 23, 2010 Rasmussen poll shows Senator Mike Crapo leading 60% to 28% over an unnamed Democratic opponent; at this point only two minor candidates have declared for the Democratic primary.  Crapo would have to do something really stupid lose his seat; Republicans should rest easy knowing that has never happened to an Idaho Republican Senator in recent years.

Governor

Alabama Governor:  Following up on their poll of the Alabama primary, PPP (D) shows all the potential Democrats losing to all the potential Republicans.  Sadly, every candidate tested has a net 0 favorable rating or worse.  Neither Democrat clears 37% in any potential matchup, although none of the Republicans gets above 48%.

Ohio Governor:  Five of thirteen polls taken since last July have shown Ted Strickland leading or tied with John Kasich.  Four of those polls are Quinnipiac polls (see also, Ohio Senate, supra).  Regardless, Quinnipiac has Strickland leading Kasich by only 43% to 38%.  An incumbent below 50% falls into the “vulnerable” category, and an incumbent below 45% starts to fall into the “needs a freak circumstance to win” category.  Strickland hasn't broken 45% since October.

Kasich leads Strickland by 4.2% in the RCP Average.

New York Governor:  I'm really hoping this doesn't turn into a repeat of 2006, when we were inundated with New York gubernatorial and senatorial polling, even though the frontrunners were up by 40 points.  Anyway, Scott Rasmussen shows Attorney General Rivers Andrew Cuomo leading all of his GOP opponents by 20 points.  Interestingly, Rasmussen shows the Attorney General dancing just above 50%, which means that there is at least some scenario, for now, where his GOP opponents catch up.  Cuomo leads Lazio by 30.6 points in the RCP average.

Idaho Governor:  Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter, who once won a “best buns” competition at a bar (while Lieutenant Governor!), leads lobbyist Keith Allred at the start of his re-election campaign by 32 points.  Nothing to see here, folks.

Michigan Primary:  Scott Rasmussen polled both parties and found that neither field is particularly well settled.  No Democrat clears 12% of the vote in the primary (unless you count “other” at 17%; the frontrunner, if you can call him that, is State House Speaker Andy Dillon (he of the aforementioned 12% of the vote).

On the Republican side, Congressman Pete Hoekstra has a fairly substantial lead over his nearest opponent, venture capitalist Rick Snyder.  This is consistent with other polling showing the Congressman ahead.

Hoekstra has led Dillon by a substantial margin in every poll taken this year.  The primary is August 3.

House

Rasmussen released their weekly generic ballot tracking poll.  It again shows Republicans leading, 46%-39%.  This represents a three percent increase in the vote for the GOP since last week, and a four percent increase for the Democrats since last week.

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