This marks the first in what I hope will be a daily series running through Election Day, analyzing the day's major poll releases. Emphasis will be on the horse race polling, but if I come across particularly interesting issue polling, I may comment upon those polls as well. These updates will generally run with the afternoon update, and so they will include polls from the previous day that we identified after 3 PM or so. The Monday edition will cover the weekend as well.

Presidential Tracking Polls
The President's approval had dropped over the past few days in the Gallup tracking poll, but today it is up two points, giving him a 48%/46% split. This is still down from the 51%/43% highs from the preceding week, but it lends some credence to the argument that the President just had an unusually negative sample on Friday.

The President also received a little bit of a bump in the Rasmussen tracking poll. He stands at 47% approve/52% disapprove. This is down from last Friday's peak of 49%/51%, but is still significantly better than the 43%/56% split he received just before the passage of health care reform.

UPDATE:  Just as I publish this, I get word of the CNN poll.  It shows a modest bounce in Obama's approval ratings, post health care reform passage.  The President was at 46%/51% in the March 19-21 polling; he is at 51%-48% in the March 25-28% polling.  This is his best showing since scoring identical numbers in the January 8-10 polling.  Interestingly, the President runs a point behind "generic Republican" in the head-to-head matchup among Registered voters.

Senate Polling

Florida Senate:  Governor Charlie Crist continues to trail Marco Rubio in the Republican primary, according to Mason-Dixon.   The Mason-Dixon poll represents the smallest lead for Rubio since Quinnipiac's January polling.  Perhaps Crist's advertising campaign is leaving a mark on Rubio; we'll have to wait for more polling to draw any conclusions there.

Barack Obama's relatively successful showing in the South has inspired a few Southern African American candidates to seek higher office, including Representative Kendrick Meek.  Meek has represented Florida's Seventeenth Congressional district -- a collection of largely African American neighborhoods to the North of Miami, since the 2002 elections.  I've always thought that he would have a difficult time replicating Obama's success.  Obama's success in the South came from a huge number of African American voters turning out to make history by electing the first African American President, and from a large number of white voters being persuaded that his post-racial, post-partisan campaign and multicultural background made him a "safe" vote. Meek has a fairly partisan voting record, and unlike Obama, has not eschewed racial issues, and I don't think "first African American Senator" generates the same enthusiasm as "first African American President."  I think that probably makes him a tough sell to a generally conservative Florida electorate.

The polling in the race bears this out.  Mason Dixon has him trailing Crist by 24 points and Rubio by 15 points.  He has never led Crist, and has led Rubio in one Quinnipiac poll and two DailyKos polls from 2009.  More troubling, Meek has never faced a Republican opponent in his history; it remains to be seen if he knows how to run a tough campaign to turn these numbers around.

New York Senate: Marist's polling shows Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed by Governor David Paterson to replace Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, in great shape for re-election if Governor George Pataki doesn't run.  She trails Pataki by two, but is at 54 percent against former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman and former Congressman Joe DioGuardi.  54 percent isn't a fantastic result, but in a state like New York, it would probably be enough to get it done.  Her only cause for concern, in the event Pataki doesn't run, is her 27%/51% approval/disapprove ratings, substantially worse than Senator Schumer's or the President's.  If Blakeman or DioGuardi can raise some money, they might be able to get it done in this environment.

Hawaii Senate:  I know, I know.  You all have been waiting for this.  Rasmussen found that Dan Inouye would absolutely thrash Governor Linda Lingle in a head-to-head matchup, 65%-25%.  Lingle has not declared, and Inouye has no major party opposition.  We have this as a Safe Democrat hold for a reason.

Florida 2012:  Late last year, Rasmussen polled Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson and found him getting thumped by Gov. Dave Heineman by 30 points.  Mason Dixon polled the other Senator Nelson, and found him faring little better.  Senator Bill Nelson of Florida suffers from a 36% approval rating -- 18 points lower than during his 2006 re-election -- and trails former Governor Jeb Bush 50%-35% in a hypothetical matchup, and current Governor Charlie Crist 47%-37%.  It doesn't help him that 54% of Floridians oppose the health care bill, while only 34% support it.  Given this, the Senator unsurprisingly has a 29% approval rating among voters over the age of 65, with 39% disapproving.  Of course, if two weeks is an eternity in politics, then two and a half years is . . . 65 eternities?

Governor:

New York:  With Governor David Paterson's announcement that he will not run for a full term, the Democrats' chances of retaining the governorship have increased tremendously.  According to Marist, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads former Congressman Rick Lazio 61%-30% and former Democrat Steve Levy 65%-26%.   There really aren't many bad spots for Cuomo in the polling.  Even Republicans have a net positive view of the Attorney General.  Governor Paterson sports a 17% approval rating in the poll.

Hawaii/New Mexico/Rhode Island:  A trio of polls show that the map won't be completely red this fall.  Democrats are the heavy favorites to reclaim the Hawaii Governor's mansion.  Linda Lingle's Lieutenant Governor fails to clear 30% against either Democrat competing for the nomination; both Democrats are over 50%.

Similarly, in New Mexico, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is over 50% against almost all of her potential GOP opponents; the only one who holds her below 50% is, somewhat surprisingly, public relations consultant Doug Turner.  This has to be a little bit disconcerting for the Republicans.  New Mexico has traditionally been a purplish-blue state.  In this environment, one would expect the Republicans to perform a little bit better in head-to-head matchups.   None of the Republicans are particularly well known, which could help explain their lagging poll numbers.

Finally, the Democrats' losing streak of sixteen years in deep blue Rhode Island is . . . looking like it just might continue.  Even without the hapless Myrth York as their nominee (she lost in 1994, 1998, and 2002), they can't seem to pull ahead in polling.  Former Republican Lincoln Chafee leads former gubernatorial aide John Robitaille (R) and Attorney General Patrick Lynch (D) with 37% to 26% for the Republican and 22% for the Democrat.  If the Democrat is Treasurer Frank Caprio, the Democrats essentially trade places with the Republicans, for a 39I-28D-22R split.

House

SD-AL: Rasmussen has polled at-large Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, and finds her in a tight race despite her generally conservative voting record.  She leads Secretary of State Chris Nelson 44%-42%, State Rep. Kristi Noem 46%-35%, and State Rep. Blake Curd 45%-33%.   This represents a deterioration in Herseth Sandlin's support; in late February she led Nelson by seven points, Noem by fifteen points and Curd by twenty-two points.  If this is part of a general turning away from Democrats representing red districts, regardless of their degree of conservatism, the Democrats could be in for a very, very long night in November.

Health Care Reform

The Democrats' push to turn around public perceptions on the health care bill is yielding very modest results, according to Rasmussen. 54% of voters favor repeal, while 42% oppose repeal, as opposed to a 55%-42% split last week.

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------