I normally don't highlight polls from pollsters I've never heard of before, but after a twenty minute chat with Gregg Durham of We Ask America, I'm convinced that they know what they are doing and that they are not engaging in the chicanery that can accompany push polls or hidden campaign polls.

In the wake of the Illinois primary, We Ask America polled five races that represent a pretty good cross-section of the competitive races this state will have in the fall. The results are consistent with what you'd expect to see in an environment where Democrats are losing the national vote (after winning it by eleven points in 2008). The polls have pretty healthy sample sizes for House race polls, and have error margins of around +/- 3.5% at 95% confidence.

In Illinois' Eighth District, a nominally R+1 district (remember that Illinois' PVI's are probably a few points to the left given Obama's “hometown hero” advantage; Arizona's are probably the same given McCain's position on the ballot) comprised of Chicago's northwestern suburbs, three-term Democrat Melissa Bean trails Republican Joe Walsh 38.33%-37.61%. Bean defeated Republican Phil Crane in an upset in 2004, and held on in the good Democratic years of 2006 and 2008.

In the open House race to replace Republican Mark Kirk in D+6 IL-10, the third time might be the charm for Democrat Dan Seals. He leads businessman Bob Dold 40%-37% in this collection of suburbs just to the north of the city.

Moving into the Chicago exurbs, first term Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson appears to be in a heap of trouble against former McLean County Commissioner Adam Kinzinger. She trails 42%-30% in the R+1 Eleventh district, which has traditionally sent Republicans to Congress.

Bill Foster, who was narrowly elected to replace outgoing House Minority Leader Dennis Hastert in a 2008 special election held on the same day as the Illinois Presidential primary, is trailing narrowly against State Senator Randy Hultgren. Hultgren leads 38%-36% in the R+1 district.

Finally, in something of a surprise, two-term Democrat Phil Hare leads Republican Bobby Schilling, whom Politics1.com describes as a “Pizza Restaurant Owner and Ex-Factory Worker” by a small margin of 39%-32%. The labyrinthine district takes in the more heavily Democratic areas of northwest and central Illinois, though it is still fairly marginal (D+3). This district is one that many thought would be competitive when Lane Evans retired in 2006, but went heavily for the Democrat in successive Democratic waves.

Obviously We Ask America didn't push undecideds very hard, which is probably appropriate this early in the game. But the overall results confirm that this will be a challenging environment for the Democrats.

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------