The biggest state-level prizes in the 2010 midterm elections will be a string of governor's races in the industrial midwest:  Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  The victor guarantees themselves at least a seat at the redistricting table in 2010 in states that are almost all at risk of losing one or two seats.  This could ultimately result in a 10-15 seat swing of house seats, depending on which party comes out on top.

Veteran Michigan pollster MRG shows that the GOP could be in the driver's seat in one of the more Democratic states of the bunch.  In the GOP primary, Congressman Pete Hoekstra, Attorney General Mike Cox and businessman Rick Snyder are all bunched around 20% of the vote; two other candidates receive 10% and 1% of the vote, respectively.  The Democrats all have very low name recognition; “undecided” is the big winner over House Speaker Andy Dillon (21%), Lansing Mayor Verg Bernero (9%) and Alma Smith (6%).

MRG also finds itself in a strong position going into November.  While none of the candidates has over 50% voter support, they enjoy support in the mid-40s regardless of whether they face Dillon or Bernero.  While I think that MRG is a GOP-affiliated pollster, the results are not that far off from what we've seen from Rasmussen and EPIC/MRA.  Michigan was in a one-state recession for most of the 2000s, and was hard hit by the financial collapse.  This will make it especially difficult for the Democrats to maintain power here.

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