As we race toward today's climactic series of votes on passage of health care reform, Pelosi starts the day a few votes shy of passage.   But it is hardly unheard of for members to flip at the last minute.  Here is a list of key members to watch today.  The bottom line is that Pelosi probably has to flip 3 or 4 already-declared nays to yeas or a similar number of "Stupak Democrats" in order for these bills to pass, in addition to having all the undecideds vote "nay," and hoping there are no wild cards who vote "nay" out of the blue out there.  Each undecided or wild card who votes "nay" has to be offset by an additional Stupak member or "nay to yea" vote.

Undecideds who voted "nay" in November:

Brian Baird (Southwest Washington St.) -- Fiscally conservative Democrat who is retiring.  Wants to see an increased emphasis on cost savings.

John Tanner (Northwest Tennessee)  -- Also retiring.  Made disparaging comments to New York Times about bill.

Lincoln Davis (Southern Tennessee) -- Only "nay" from November who hasn't made some sort of comment on the record.   He represents an R+13 district and may be waiting, hoping the leadership won't need him.

Undecideds who voted "yea" in November:

Bill Foster (Western Chicago exurbs) -- Quasi-Freshman won Dennis Hastert's district in a special election in 2008 against a weak Republican.  Has to worry about the 2010 elections.

Paul Kanjorski (Scranton, PA) -- Scranton-area Congressman is in a tough re-election battle, and represents a district including Sallie Mae.  Does not like the education reform package tacked onto the reconciliation bill.

Mike Michaud (Northern Maine) -- Strangely quiet union Democrat from northern Maine. May have "Steve Lynch issues" (see below).

Solomon Ortiz (Corpus Christi, Texas) -- Hispanic caucus member has been quiet.  He is pro-life, pro-immigrant, and is generally fiscally moderate.  He was a late decider last time, and may be hoping that the leadership doesn't need his vote this time.

Earl Pomeroy (North Dakota) -- Congressman is in the race of his life, is polling poorly in North Dakota.  Probably does not want to vote "yea," though he would still have a hard time walking back earlier "yea" vote.

Stupak Bloc:

These are the ten suspected Stupak Democrats, though the leadership may already have peeled off a few of them:  Costello (Southwest Illinois and East St. Louis), Donnelly (North-Central Indiana, South Bend), Driehaus (Cincinnati and northern suburbs), Lipinski (Southwest Cook county/Chicago), Stupak (Upper Peninsula of Michigan, northern "glove"), Berry (Arkansas Delta), Dahlkemper (Erie, PA), Mollohan (Wheeling and Morgantown WV), Kaptur (Toledo), Rahall (Beckley/Coal Country, WV).

If Pelosi flips all ten Stupak Democrats -- and there are rumors a deal is near (though those rumors have been floating around all week) -- then this is probably effectively over.  Only a revolt among pro-choice members (see below), or losing almost all of the remaining undecideds would prevent passage.  I'd put the odds of that occuring at 5%.

Wobbly Nays:

These are declared "nays" that I suspect the leadership may be able to flip back, though they will be tough:

Steve Lynch (South Boston).  Did not like the "deem and pass" manuever.  Also unhappy with the Cadillac tax.

Mike Arcuri (Utica, NY) -- Rules committe member who almost lost in 2008.  Facing a rematch with 2008 opponent in a much worse political environment.

Michael McMahon (Staten Island) -- Staten Island Democrat who may end up voting with the rest of his delegation.

Rick Boucher (Southwest Virginia) -- Decided fairly late that he was still a "nay."  He'd be  a tough flip, but he generally tries to vote with the leadership.

Wild Cards

Loretta Sanchez (Central Orange County, CA) -- Voted "yea" last time after voting against the rule.  Roll Call reports that she may not even show up for the vote.

Michael Capuano (Cambridge) -- Spoke out against the bill from the left, but has since been quiet.  Will probably vote yes.

The pro-choice caucus -- This is probably the key.  Part of the reason Stupak language was removed from the bill is that some 40 members promised to vote against a final conference report if it contained Stupak language.  If Obama makes some sort of executive order promise in order to bring Stupak on board, keep an eye on Diana DeGette (Denver), Nita Lowey (Westchester County), and Mike Quigley (Chicago).

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