Alrighty, we'll be blogging the health care vote as it unfolds.
12:01 -- The answer to that question will have to wait until tomorrow. I'm for bed. Thanks for following!
11:34 -- 220 Democrats for, 33 against. I wonder who switched votes.
11:25 -- Query why Rahm would get a high 5, since according to Politico he was agitating for an incrementalist approach.
11:24 -- Joe Gibbs' tweet: POTUS watched vote in room aptly named for president who started this - cheers and clapping at 216 - high five for Rahm, hugs all around.
11:23 -- We're voting again, this time on the reconciliation bill. 149 Dem yeas, 15 nays.
11:02 -- That was quick. Roll call vote is up here. Dems voting no: Adler, Altmire, Arcuri, Barrow, Berry, Boren, Boucher, Bright, Chandler, Childers, Davis (AL), Davis (TN), Edwards (TX), Herseth Sandlin, Holden, Kissell, Kratovil, Lipinski, Lynch, Marshall, Matheson, McIntyre, McMahon, Melancon, Minnick, Nye, Peterson, Ross, Shuler, Skelton, Space, Tanner, Taylor, Teague.
I guess Lipinski was the only Stupak holdout in the end.
10:46 -- 219 Democratic yeas, 34 Democratic nays. We now move on to the vote on the second bill.
10:45 -- And there you have it.
10:44 -- Expect an eruption in two votes.
10:44 -- five votes away.
10:43 -- 209 Dem yeas, 27 Dem nays, 165 Rep nays.
10:40 -- 200 yeas. 16 votes away.
10:39 -- 189 Democratic yeas, 22 Democratic nays, Republicans still unified.
10:36 -- It's interesting that, from what I've read, Costello and Lipinski are the two Stupak Dems who didn't flip. They're probably from the safest districts of the bunch.
10:34 -- And we're voting now. This is pretty darned anticlimactic. All Reps opposed so far, 179 Dems in favor, 20 opposed.
9:49 -- Well, we're getting close to a vote. Finally.
8:55 -- Needless to say, they are not sticking with their declared schedule of a vote by 6.
7:34 -- Should have a vote on passage of the Senate bill soon. Until then, just a bunch of speeches on the House floor.
6:34 -- I have to say, the Obama strategy is a pretty good one. He's doing the easy part (spending) with the Democrats in office. If the Republicans win -- and they certainly will with the governorships, if not Congress -- they will be tasked with owning part of the hard part (tax hikes/spending cuts).
6:34 -- The final vote on the Rule is 224 to 206.
6:21 -- The rule just passed the House. 220 yeas, 200 nays, with 11 not voting right now.
6:20 -- I'll take this as "Loretta is a yes" -- http://twitter.com/LorettaSanchez/status/10837991634
5:57 -- Kanjorski is a "yes."
5:55 -- Jim Cooper is a "yes." I think that takes it from a 95% chance of passage to a done deal.
5:48 -- The more I think about it, the worse I think this was for Stupak. On the one hand, the left doesn't like him now for almost killing the bill, on the other hand, the right doesn't like him because he didn't kill the bill.
5:24 -- Well, the Hill still has Berry, Costello and Lipinski as no votes, with three undecideds (Cooper, Kanjorski and Sanchez). Stopping it would still be the equivalent of an inside straight; Republicans would have to win all 6 votes.
4:41 -- The million dollar question is how many Stupak brings with him. I think this is it, but Berry, Mollohan, and a few others weren't at the presser. Kaptur was there, but she was already a yes.
4:28 -- If this flips all of the Stupak Democrats, then there are an awful lot of Democrats who announced that they were switching from no to yes, or not flipping, that aren't going to be very happy.
4:25 -- This really creates headaches for Republican governors getting ready to take over in 2010.
4:11 -- Anyway, it's all over but the shouting now. Kaptur is speaking now.
4:07 -- Reached agreement with the White House. He is "pleased" to announce that there is an agreement. Doesn't smile once.
4:07 -- Gene Taylor not looking happy on Fox.
4:06 -- Up there with Dahlkemper, Kaptur.
4:05 -- This is it. Stupak talking.
4:00 -- Waiting for Stupak to begin his presser. Politico is reporting that he's reached agreement with the White House.
3:34 -- Apparently Stupak is having a press conference at 4pm. He's announced this several times already, only to push it back. This one is described as "firm." I'm assuming that means that a deal has been reached.
3:22 -- Jay has it right -- this all comes down to the Stupak bloc. If they can work something out, then they pass this. If they can't work something out, then they don't pass this. There are only two or three undecideds left standing, not enough to swing it either way (unless the Administration can only flip some of the Stupak Dems).
2:53 -- The Hill reports that the Democrats don't have the votes yet.
2:52 -- Protesters are still grouped on the Southside of the Capitol, directly outside the windows of the 3rd floor House Press Gallery. Other than “Freedom!” their chants are inaudible up here, but they are constant nonetheless. The singing of “The Star Spangled Banner” is unmistakable, though. --KYLE TRYGSTAD
2:47 -- Stupak is telling Fox that he's still a "no."
2:44 -- The House is voting on the rule. So far it's a party line vote.
2:19 -- Foster of Illinois is a yes. 209-211.
2:14 -- Pomeroy of North Dakota is a yes. 208-211.
2:10 -- Larry Sabato had the line of the day. I'm paraphrasing, but something to the effect that Democrats are probably going to have a very good March and April, Republicans will have a very good November.
1:48 -- Fox reporting that Stupak isn't there yet. Lincoln Davis is a no. 207-211.
1:40 -- John Tanner is still a no. 207-210.
1:37 -- Hmmmm...Washington Examiner is reporting that they just spoke with Stupak, and he's still a no.
1:17 -- Fox is reporting that Brian Baird is flipping to yea. 207-209. Waiting on confirmation for Stupak.
12:56 -- MSNBC reporting that Bart Stupak will vote "yes." If this is true, this is pretty much over, unless the pro-choicers revolt.
12:51 -- Apparently Loretta Sanchez will make the vote. How she will vote hasn't been declared yet.
12:44 -- Last night I listed some famous examples of flippers on the House floor: Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky in 1993, Robin Hayes in 2005. But I forgot about the most outrageous example. In order to flip Rep. Nick Smith's vote on the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit bill (Republicans held the vote open for 3 hours), they offered $100,000 to his son's campaign to replace him (Smith was retiring), and promised to defeat his son in the primary if Smith didn't flip.
Moral of the story: Don't underestimate the pressures these members are under. Second moral of the story: Smith's son lost the primary anyway.
12:29 -- We're about 30 minutes away from the House convening. The schedule is: 2pm, begin debate on the rules; 3pm vote to end debate and vote on rules; 3:15pm begin debate on reconciliation package; 5:15pm vote on the reconciliation package; 5:30pm 15 minute debate on Republican substitute amendment, followed by vote; 6pm vote on reconciliation package; 6:15pm vote on Senate health care bill, assuming reconciliation bill passes.
12:14 -- Health care supporters started the day out down 204 to 209, but got some good news as suspected "Stupak Democrat" Marcy Kaptur announced her support for the bill, and holdout Solomon Ortiz did the same. That makes it a 206-209 split.
--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------
