Yesterday was an absolute roller coaster for observers of the health care whip count.  Some members thought to be crucial to the passage of health care reform came out against the bill:  Altmire,Teague and a few others came out as "nays."  At the same time, new headaches popped up for the leadership, as Peter DeFazio -- a no vote on the stimulus from the left -- threatened to vote "no" on the health care bill unless there was additional Medicare funding, which funding would in turn threaten the deficit reduction in the reconciliation bill.  And then the leadership secured some tough "yes" votes:  Allen Boyd, Brad Ellsworth, Suzanne Kosmas, Henry Cuellar, Harry Mitchell and Scott Murphy came out in support.

But by the end of the day, it was very clear that the whip counts were in trouble.  Nancy Pelosi was left having to more-or-less run the table under either the Firedoglake or The Hill whip counts, with a very tough group of undecideds, including members thought to be leaning no:  Marcy Kaptur, Glenn Nye, John Tanner, Kathy Dahlkemper, Jim Matheson, and a few others.  And that assumes there's no more Lynch/DeFazio/Capuano headaches lurking out there, which is far from certain.  Pelosi could probably flip a "no" or two to "yes" if need be, but there was an awful lot of flipping that would have to occur to get this through.

I think the clearest indication that Pelosi didn't think she had the votes going this route is that she reportedly is now allowing Bart Stupak to introduce his abortion language.  I'm not sure exactly how this would work, but apparently there is a procedural mechanism for it.

This is a huge gamble for Pelosi.  If this is the road she's taking, she's assuming that the left-most members of her caucus won't bolt.  I'm not sure that's true.  Devoted pro-choicers like Diana DeGette, Nita Lowey, and Louise Slaughter held their nose and supported Stupak the first time around because they had assurances that it would be stripped by the Senate.  Now it will be the law of the land.  The progressive caucus is already holding its nose due to the lack of a public option; Pelosi may pick up twelve "Stupak" Democrats, but lose twenty pro-choicers.  I just don't know.

This is far from over, and anyone trying to put odds on this is fooling themselves.  I wouldn't be able to disagree with anyone who told me the odds of passage were around 30%, nor with someone who placed them at 70%.  We're in a universe where no one knows what is going on, where every procedural mechanism in the book is being pulled out to get this through, and where probably the most pro-choice President and Congress in history are possibly prepared to hand pro-lifers one of their biggest wins since before they lost Roe to get their bill through.  We are completely through the looking glass here.

--------------------------------------------
Follow the RCP Blog on Twitter.
Become a fan of RCP on Facebook.
--------------------------------------------