2010 Green Shoots for the Dems?
Posted by Tom Bevan | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Are Democrats making a comeback of sorts? Consider the f0llowing pieces of recent evidence:
1) Last week a Quinnipiac poll of the Ohio Governor's race showed Democrat Ted Strickland rebounding to a five point lead over Republican John Kasich, 44 to 39. Quinnipiac's last poll in Ohio, taken in mid-November, had the two tied at 40% each.
2) Yesterday, Quinnipiac's poll of the Senate race in Pennsylvania Senate race showed Democrat Arlen Specter running out to a 7-point lead over Republican Pat Toomey. In mid-December the two men were tied at 44% each, but over the last eight weeks Specter bumped up to 49% support while Toomey dropped two points to 42%.
3) A Rasmussen Reports poll in the Arkansas Senate race released yesterday showed Blanche Lincoln rebounding in a big way. As I mentioned in a post yesterday afternoon, despite the fact Lincoln still trails all 0f her likely GOP challengers and can't muster more than 41% of the vote, she's made significant gains in the last month according to Rasmussen. Lincoln picked up a net 10 points on John Boozman, gained 11 points on Kim Hendren, and rebounded a net 14-points against Gilbert Baker and Curtis Coleman.
4) Lastly, and more obscurely, Mike Memoli reported yesterday that the Democratic candidate in a special election for the House of Delegates in Northern Virginia eked out a narrow 37-vote victory. (UPDATE: Reader BR points out that the Dems won this seat by 365 votes during the McDonnell landslide just a few months ago, so a paper thin victory this week wouldn't necessarily fall in the category of a green shoot.)
Maybe these results are just a fleeting upward tick for Democrats. Maybe they're the sign of something more. As Matthew Continetti points out in the LA Times today, there's an awful lot of time between now and November. And with the speed at which information and political campaigns move these days, we may well see a few more rounds of up and down for both parties before voters deliver a verdict on Election Day - especially with a final resolution of some kind on health care (either a crash and burn or a Lazarus-like, skin-of-the-teeth passage of a Democratic bill) in the offing.
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