The 5 Periods of Congress' Decline
Posted by Tom Bevan | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
From the most recent Fox News poll:
To gauge voters' moods, the latest Fox News poll asked respondents if they were "fed up with and tired of" several issues.
An overwhelming majority — 82 percent — says they are fed up with partisan bickering in Washington, up from 77 percent in 2005.
Almost as many voters are annoyed with the growing federal budget deficit — 81 percent say they are fed up with that.
This helps explain why Congress' job approval is down to 14 percent. Only once before in the Fox News poll has it been lower, when lawmakers received a 13 percent approval rating in October 2008.
The public is also losing patience with government spending: 73 percent say they are fed up with Uncle Sam's spending spree.
Even before the all-day health care summit on Thursday, nearly 7 in 10 voters said they were fed up with the health care reform debate (67 percent).
The results of the Fox poll are part of a bigger trend regarding Congress. If you go back and trace Congress' job approval ratings in the RCP Average over the last year, you can see five distinct periods:
Period 1: The Renaissance (January 19, 2009 - March 13, 2009)
Right about the time Barack Obama was sworn into office, Congress's job approval rating was in the toilet. Only 21.7% approved of the job Congress was doing while 70.7% disapproved - but since the new Congress had just been sworn in two weeks before and the president hadn't even been inaugurated yet, this essentially amounted to a holdover of the public's sour mood from the 2008 election. Over the next three months, however, Congress made significant headway in improving its public image. By mid-March, Congress' job approval rating was up to 37% and disapproval was down to 52% - a net improvement of 34 points in roughly ninety days.
Period 2: The Fluctuation (March 13, 2009 - June 20, 2009)
For the next three months, Congress' job approval bounced down and then back up, demonstrating that public attitudes were very fluid regarding its view of the legislative body. After holding steady through the end of March, by the end of April/beginning of May Congress' job approval rating dipped into the low 30's while disapproval bulged upward to 60%. But May and June brought a recovery of sorts: by June 21, 2009, Congress' job approval rating was back to 36.0% and disapproval was at 53.7% - less than two points off its beginning high point in mid-March.
Period 3: The Slide (June 22, 2009 - October 2, 2009)
Over the three month span of this period, the public's negative image of Congress began to harden. Congress lost nearly 10 points in its approval rating (from 36% to 26.8%) and gained 10.3% in disapproval (from 53.7% to 64.0%). This was, of course, the summer of Tea Parties and townhall meetings that gave expression to some of the public's frustration with Washington DC and clearly took its toll on Congress' ratings. As you can see from the graph, it was a remarkably steady slide, with each month bringing a new low in approval and a new high in disapproval.
Period 4: The Status Quo (October 7, 2009 - February 3, 2010)
Over the next four months, the public's low opinion of Congress remained basically fixed. On October 7, Congress approval was at 25.8%, disapproval was at 66.5%. Roughly one hundred and twenty days later there was a net change of less than one percent: approval was half a point higher at 26.3%, and disapproval was two-tenths of a percent lower at 66.3%.
Period 5: The Crash (February 3, 2010 - Current)
This brings us back to the results from the latest Fox poll (and in other polls as well). What we've seen in the last two weeks is remarkable: the bottom has fallen out of Congress' already low approval ratings. On February 3, Congress' job approval rating was at 26.3% and disapproval was at 66.3%. Today, Congress' approval rating is down to just 18.8% and disapproval rating is up to 75.6%. That's an additional 14.8% decline in support for Congress in just the last three weeks. The public appears to have indeed reached a "fed up to here" level of frustration with a Congress it already held in fairly low esteem.
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