I remember back in 2004 when I started blogging, when I would get two or three polls a day and think “man, it's October now.  Things are picking up.”  I guess March is the new October.

Presidential Tracking Polls

After a bit of rough news in the recent rounds of Generic Congressional Ballot tests, Democrats got some good news today in the Presidential tracking polls.

Gallup showed President Obama up two points today, to a 50%/43% approve/disapprove.  That's a substantial improvement over this past weekend.

What makes this interesting is that Rasmussen showed similar movement.  Obama's overall approval numbers improved to 48% (up from 43% on the 20^th) and his total disapproves are at 51% (down from 56% on the 20^th).  This shows probably a two-to-three point improvement in the President's approval numbers setting in over their lows earlier in the month.  What is more dramatic is the three percent jump in “strong approves” from yesterday, up eleven points since two weeks ago.  The +8 between “strong approves” and “strong disapproves” is the President's best showing since early February.

Rasmussen explains:

The bounce in approval for the President has come from a strong increase in enthusiasm among Democrats. Currently, 65% of Democrats Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing. That's up from the mid-to-low 40 percent range before passage of the health care legislation.

However, firing up the Democratic base may also carry a cost for the President. Currently, just 19% of unaffiliated voters Strongly Approve while 45% Strongly Disapprove. Those numbers are a bit weaker for the President than they were before the health care bill passed.

This is the double-edged sword for Democrats.  In 2006, Republicans turned out their base almost as strongly as they did in 2004, and yet they lost 30 House seats because Independents turned against them.  Democrats need to find a way to keep their base energized without further alienating Independents.  It's a tall order.

Marist's poll of registered voters shows the President with a tepid 46% approve/43% disapprove.  43% of registered voters see the country on the right track, 53% on the wrong track.  Once again, the President's approval numbers are worse for specific issues; the split is 46%/49% on the economy and 41%/53% on health care.

Senate

Ohio Senate: Last night I was talking with a friend of mine, and mentioned that I thought that the Ohio Senate seat would be the toughest open seat for the GOP to keep.  Like Missouri, it features a professional politician running in a change election with ties to the Bush years.  Like Florida, (and unlike Missouri) it features a state that Barack Obama carried handily in the previous election.  Merge those two factors together, and you have a combination hard to find in any other Republican state this cycle.  Throw in the fact that the Republican was President Bush's trade representative in a rust belt state, and you see why I see a scenario where this becomes an uphill climb for the GOP by the end of the cycle.

Quinnipiac buttresses this view today with a survey showing that Lieutenant Governor (and primary frontrunner) Lee Fisher leads former OMB director and US Trade Representative Rob Portman 41%-37%.  Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner leads Portman 38%-37%.  Quinnipiac ascribes this to an improved standing for Democrats among Independents, something few other polls are showing.

It is probably worth noting that no other poll has shown Fisher leading Portman since . . . Quinnipiac's September polling.  The same is true of Brunner.  It's also worth noting that, while Quinnipiac is a very good, nonpartisan polling company, its results from last cycle for Ohio tended to skew a few points toward the Democrats when compared to other pollsters in the field at the same time – sometimes significantly so.

Portman leads both Brunner and Fisher by 2 in the RCP Average.

Idaho Senate:  A March 23, 2010 Rasmussen poll shows Senator Mike Crapo leading 60% to 28% over an unnamed Democratic opponent; at this point only two minor candidates have declared for the Democratic primary.  Crapo would have to do something really stupid lose his seat; Republicans should rest easy knowing that has never happened to an Idaho Republican Senator in recent years.

Governor

Alabama Governor:  Following up on their poll of the Alabama primary, PPP (D) shows all the potential Democrats losing to all the potential Republicans.  Sadly, every candidate tested has a net 0 favorable rating or worse.  Neither Democrat clears 37% in any potential matchup, although none of the Republicans gets above 48%.

Ohio Governor:  Five of thirteen polls taken since last July have shown Ted Strickland leading or tied with John Kasich.  Four of those polls are Quinnipiac polls (see also, Ohio Senate, supra).  Regardless, Quinnipiac has Strickland leading Kasich by only 43% to 38%.  An incumbent below 50% falls into the “vulnerable” category, and an incumbent below 45% starts to fall into the “needs a freak circumstance to win” category.  Strickland hasn't broken 45% since October.

Kasich leads Strickland by 4.2% in the RCP Average.

New York Governor:  I'm really hoping this doesn't turn into a repeat of 2006, when we were inundated with New York gubernatorial and senatorial polling, even though the frontrunners were up by 40 points.  Anyway, Scott Rasmussen shows Attorney General Rivers Andrew Cuomo leading all of his GOP opponents by 20 points.  Interestingly, Rasmussen shows the Attorney General dancing just above 50%, which means that there is at least some scenario, for now, where his GOP opponents catch up.  Cuomo leads Lazio by 30.6 points in the RCP average.

Idaho Governor:  Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter, who once won a “best buns” competition at a bar (while Lieutenant Governor!), leads lobbyist Keith Allred at the start of his re-election campaign by 32 points.  Nothing to see here, folks.

Michigan Primary:  Scott Rasmussen polled both parties and found that neither field is particularly well settled.  No Democrat clears 12% of the vote in the primary (unless you count “other” at 17%; the frontrunner, if you can call him that, is State House Speaker Andy Dillon (he of the aforementioned 12% of the vote).

On the Republican side, Congressman Pete Hoekstra has a fairly substantial lead over his nearest opponent, venture capitalist Rick Snyder.  This is consistent with other polling showing the Congressman ahead.

Hoekstra has led Dillon by a substantial margin in every poll taken this year.  The primary is August 3.

House

Rasmussen released their weekly generic ballot tracking poll.  It again shows Republicans leading, 46%-39%.  This represents a three percent increase in the vote for the GOP since last week, and a four percent increase for the Democrats since last week.

Yesterday we noted PPP's numbers in the gubernatorial primaries in Alabama, where Rep. Artur Davis led the Democrats while Republicans had a wide-open race. Today's general election numbers (1,270 RVs, 3/27-29, MoE +/- 2.8%) show that regardless of who emerges, Republicans appear to be in the driver's seat to hold the post.

Former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore is the most well-known of the candidates, but runs the weakest in the GOP field. Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) performs better than Davis, particularly among independent voters. But he, too, trails all potential GOP foes.

General Election Matchups
Byrne (R) 48 -- Davis (D) 32 -- Und 20
Ivey (R) 44 -- Davis (D) 33 -- Und 23
James (R) 42 -- Davis (D) 33 -- Und 25
Moore (R) 43 -- Davis (D) 37 -- Und 19

Byrne (R) 43 -- Sparks (D) 30 -- Und 26
Ivey (R) 39 -- Sparks (D) 33 -- Und 28
James (R) 38 -- Sparks (D) 33 -- Und 29
Moore (R) 42 -- Sparks (D) 37 -- Und 21

Favorable Ratings
Moore 33 / 34
Davis 20 / 35
Ivey 19 / 26
Byrne 18 / 18
James 14 / 24
Sparks 20 / 20

Gallup's most recent polling of the generic ballot shows a net five-point bounce for the Republicans, post-health care passage. The poll of registered voters now shows a lead of 47%-44%; Republicans had trailed by a similar 47%-44% margin in the first and second weeks of March, and by a 47%-45% margin in last week's tracking results.  The loss for the Democrats comes mostly from independent voters; the gain for Republicans comes from Republican and Democratic voters turning toward the GOP.

We should get a definitive answer tomorrow on whether *ahem* adult entertainer Stephanie Clifford, a.k.a. Stormy Daniels, will run for Senate against Senator and DC-Madame customer David Vitter.  Daniels formed an exploratory committee in 2009, and has been conducting a listening tour of Louisiana.  If elected, the 31-year-old would be the country's youngest Senator.  She is leaning toward running as a Libertarian.  She states that if elected she would "probably" retire from the industry.

Here's what the League of Conservation Voters had to say about President Obama's decision to expand offshore drilling:

“In sharp contrast with the administration's ongoing commitment and leadership on clean energy, today's announcement is highly disappointing.

“As the president himself has said on numerous occasions, the nation that leads in the creation of a clean energy economy will be the nation that leads the 21st century's global economy. Yet opening our coastlines for additional offshore drilling will continue the failed energy policies of the past and do nothing to create the new clean energy jobs of the future.

“We urge President Obama to continue working with the Senate to pass a comprehensive clean energy and climate bill that truly makes American more energy independent by building a clean energy economy and curbing harmful carbon pollution.”

Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio received a major endorsement this morning that could help to solidify Rubio's argument that he's the true conservative in the Republican primary. Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn, known for holding up legislation he deems fiscally unsound, is throwing his support behind Rubio.

"I proudly endorse Marco Rubio for the U.S. Senate and look forward to working with him in Washington," Coburn said in a statement released by the Rubio campaign. "His genuine principles and proven record are evidence that he will come to Washington and be a consistent advocate for fiscal responsibility, individual liberty and the traditional values that have made America great. I have closely studied Florida's Senate candidates and have no doubt that Marco Rubio is the only fiscal conservative in this race."

This is another blow to Gov. Charlie Crist, the now-former establishment candidate. Earlier this month, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn walked back his endorsement of Crist, stating the committee would not withdraw its initial pronouncement of support but would also not engage in the primary.

Rasmussen also polled the New York gubernatorial race (3/29/2010, 500 LV, MOE +/- 4.5%), and finds that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads all the Republicans:

Andrew Cuomo -- 52%, Rick Lazio -- 29%

Andrew Cuomo -- 51%, Carl Paladino -- 28%

Andrew Cuomo -- 50%, Steve Levy -- 26%

Scott Rasmussen polled the Michigan primary for both the Republicans and Democrats.  On the Democratic side, (3/24/2010, 541 LV, MOE +/- 4.3%)  "undecided" has a big lead, followed by "other":

Virg Bernero -- 8%

Andy Dillon -- 12%

Alma Wheeler Smith -- 10%

Other -- 17%

Undecided -- 53%

On the Republican side (3/24/2010, 662 LVs, MOE +/- 4%), things are  a little bit more settled, though undecided is still the most popular choice of a plurality of voters:

Peter Hoekstra -- 27%

Rick Snyder -- 18%

Mike Cox -- 13%

Mike Bouchard -- 6%

Other -- 5%

Undecided -- 32%

Quinnipiac's latest survey in Ohio (1,526 RVs, 3/23-29, MoE +/- 2.5%) finds what the pollster calls a "mini-surge" for Democrats, as the party now has taken leads in both the Senate and gubernatorial races this fall.

Senate General Election Matchups
Fisher 41 (+4 vs. last poll, 2/16-21)
Portman 37 (-3)
Und 21 (unch)

Brunner 38 (+3)
Portman 37 (-3)
Und 23 (unch)

In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland maintains a five-point lead over John Kasich, but he's still well under the 50 percent threshold where incumbents would want to be.

Gubernatorial General Election Matchup
Strickland 43 (-1 vs. last poll)
Kasich 38 (-1)
Und 17 (+2)

The movement in the Senate race seems to be attributable to a modest uptick for Democrats among Independent voters. They lean toward Portman, but the gap has narrowed this month. Portman leads Fisher 41-31 among indies, down from a 39-27 gap in February; he leads Brunner 38-31, down from a 40-28 spread last month.

President Obama's job rating has also improved, with 47 percent of Ohioans approving and 48 percent disapproving. The split was 44/52 in February. He also benefits from movement among independents, with a net approval rating shift from -19 to -14. Ohioans are also moving on the health reform law, with a 7 point jump bringing overall support to 43 percent; opposition drops from 55 to 50 percent. Quinnipiac also finds this:

Obama is a better President than George W. Bush, voters say 45 - 32 percent. Even independents, who have been a particular political problem for Obama in recent months, say he has been better than Bush 35 - 31 percent.

Nate Silver wrote a post Tuesday that took a critical look at my column the same day, “Note to Liberal Elite: It's Not About Race.”

First, we must get the data straight to debate what's behind it (race or not). Silver writes that his readers come to him for “data-based argumentation.” No doubt. But Silver has his data wrong.
(more...)