Evan Bayh's pending retirement announcement leaves Democrats scrambling for a replacement candidate for Senate in Indiana. There's been some immediate conflicting reports over when the filing deadline is -- the Secretary of State's Web site lists Friday as the date, but other reports indicate signatures need to be submitted tomorrow.

According to a candidate's guide from the Indiana Secretary of State, here's how the process works. To qualify for the ballot, a candidate for Senate must provide a petition of nomination signed by 4,500 registered voters in the state, including 500 from each of the nine Congressional Districts.

For the Election Division to consider a petition valid, the county voter registration office in each county where a petitioner is registered must certify whether each petitioner is a registered voter in that county. This certification must accompany and be a part of the petition. If a county is a part of more than one congressional district, the certificate must indicate the number of petitioners from that county who reside in each congressional district. (IC 3-8-2-9)

A candidate may submit a petition for certification to the county voter registration office no earlier than Monday, January 4, 2010, and no later than 12:00 noon, local prevailing time, on Tuesday, February 16, 2010. (IC 3-8-2-8 and IC 3-8-2-10)

So, at just after noon Eastern time, any Democrat wanting to make the ballot has less than 24 hours to get those petitions signed and submitted in the various county registrars offices. Clearly, that's not going to happen.

What Democratic sources say will occur is that the state Democratic party will consider this a vacancy, which allows them to appoint a candidate after the deadline. As reported at Politics Nation, Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D) and Baron Hill (D) are being floated as potential candidates in the early going. Both won their seats in the 2006 wave year (Hill had served in the seat before). Ellsworth actually defeated Rep. John Hostettler (R), who is running for the GOP nomination today.

As a sign of how Democrats were caught flat-footed by the news, a source says Bayh had his own petitions ready to be submitted, and was expected to do so as late as last week. Reports now indicate he told his own staff of his decision not to run on Friday, but only informed the White House and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today.

UPDATE: There's naturally speculation about Gov. Mitch Daniels or Rep. Mike Pence reconsidering their decisions not to run. But the above process is true of both Republicans as well as Democrats. That means that while Bayh's decision puts the seat in much greater jeopardy, the GOP will be hard-pressed to field a better candidate than former Sen. Dan Coats or former Rep. John Hostettler.

UPDATE 2: Tamyra d'Ippolito, a restaurant owner who had been seeking to challenge Bayh in the Democratic primary, tells RCP that she's still short of the signatures needed to make the ballot. She needs 4,500, and estimates she has 3,500 now. If she does qualify, she says she has no plans to step aside. But her campaign manager separately told RCP that the chances of getting those signatures by noon tomorrow are "slim to none." This would pave the way for the state Democratic committee to choose a nominee instead.

Iowa Gov. Chet Culver's (D) re-election prospects are growing dimmer to the point where you'll hear whispers about another retirement. The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll shows that Culver's approval rating is down to 36 percent, with 53 percent now disapproving of his job performance. That's down from 40 percent approval in November and 50 percent approval in September.

Last January, Culver's approval rating was at his all-time high: 60 percent. Now, he's at a low point unseen by his three predecessors. That's especially bad news given that he could face one of them -- former Gov. Terry Branstad (R), this fall:

General Election Matchups (531 LVs, 1/31-2/3, MoE +/- 4.3%)
Branstad (R) 53 -- Culver (D) 33 -- Und 9
Vander Plaats (R) 43 -- Culver (D) 40 - Und 12
Culver (D) 41 -- Rants (R) 37 -- Und 14
Culver (D) 41 -- Roberts (R) 36 -- Und 15

Culver isn't the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent -- that designation still belongs to New York's David Paterson. But unlike Paterson Culver was elected to the post in his own right. Colorado's Bill Ritter (D), with somewhat better numbers, abandoned his re-election bid last month. On the Republican side, Nevada's Jim Gibbons is the incumbent least likely to be re-elected; he's likely to lose in the primary.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 16 points in the Republican primary for governor, according to a new Dallas Morning News poll. Perry falls 5 points shy of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff.

The survey (Feb. 2-10, 464 GOP LV, MoE +/- 2.5%) was conducted before Debra Medina's interview Thursday with Glenn Beck, in which her views on 9/11 were questioned. The primary will be held March 2.

GOP Primary
Perry 45
Hutchison 29
Medina 17
Und 10

Perry leads by 15.7 points in the RCP Average

Both Perry and Hutchison have sub-50% approval ratings, yet lead likely Democratic nominee Bill White in potential general election matchups (1,508 RV, MoE +/- 2.5%). While Perry leads Hutchison by 16 points in the primary, White wins more support against Perry.

General Election
Perry 43 - White 37 - Und 20

Hutchison 42 - White 34 - Und 22

The St. Petersburg Times today has a striking piece about Alex Sink's campaign for Florida governor. She had been touted by state and national Democrats as a top-tier candidate in a race that always has national implications. But some of the on-the-record quotes from those identified as her supporters sound strikingly similar to comments we heard about Martha Coakley as her Senate campaign went downhill.

The piece describes Sink, currently the state Chief Financial Officer, as "a hypercautious candidate without a potent message or viable political operation." More:

Sink is the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate in two decades to raise more money than the leading Republican, and that matters enormously in a state as vast as Florida. But money and a lackluster Republican opponent are about the only things her campaign has going for it at the start of an election year shaping up to be tough for Democrats everywhere.

"There's certainly time to turn it around and get it on the right path," said Democratic consultant Jeff Garcia of Miami, "but the campaign appears to be behind the eight ball and a little bit slow in developing."

...

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Kendrick Meek is everywhere holding grass roots political events, while Sink's main Republican gubernatorial rival, Bill McCollum, regularly has "Breakfast with Bill" community meetings or rolls out grass roots campaign teams. Democrats say they see little pulse with the Sink campaign unless it involves soliciting campaign checks.

"As a grass roots organizer, it's difficult to make a case for a candidate who is unknown. I've never been contacted by the campaign,'' said Ann Zucker, president of the Weston Democratic Club in Broward County. "I am disenchanted with Alex Sink. She doesn't seem to like talking to the grass roots."

Sink herself is quoted in the piece, and she concedes her inexperience in the art of politics -- trying to turn it against her opponent, state Attorney General Bill McCollum:

"Unlike my opponent who's run for office 14 times, I've only run for office one time and it is a different experience from the world I came from,'' said Sink, adding that she's always working to improve. "I don't know anybody who likes a Web cam stuck 6 inches away from your face. . . . But that's the way it is. I just have to suck it up."

The end of that quote harkens back to Coakley's infamous quote -- asking rhetorically if her time would have been better spent "standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold?"

One thing is for sure though: Sink does have time to turn things around. But as the polling in Florida shows, she's got some tough work ahead of her, and the trend doesn't bode well.

Louisiana Sen. David Vitter (R) extended his lead this month over challenger Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), according to a new Rasmussen poll (Feb. 10, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). What was an 18-point lead last month is now 24 points.

Vitter 57 (+4 vs. last poll, Jan. 19)
Melancon 33 (-2)
Und 7

Melancon has an upside down favorable rating (39% favorable/45% unfavorable), while Vitter -- who suffered a P.R. disaster in 2007 -- is viewed favorably by 67%, with just 26% having an unfavorable view of him.

A record $3.47 billion was spent on federal lobbyists in 2009, according to a new study by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Ergo, fair now to say that Wall Street and K Street had a bull year, while Main Street suffered in recession.

The lobbyist boon times were tied to the legislative debates of the day: health care reform, financial reform and energy policy.

Still, 2009 looks not greatly different from 2008. There was about a 5% total increase in spending between the two years. But most of that increase occurred in the 4th quarter. And in the 4th quarter of 2008 there were those two mega events, financial crisis and the presidential election, likely tamping down spending. For example, the report finds that spending in the 2009 3rd quarter was up 3% compared to a 16% rise in the 4th quarter.

Nevertheless, it exhibits how disconnected the worlds of Wall Street and K Street are from the larger American experience. Both industries earned record profits the same year foreclosures shattered previous records.

Notably, with health care reform atop the 2009 legislative debate, the report found that federal lobbying expenditures for the pharmaceutical and health products industry were larger than any single industry ever. Health care lobby's total 2009 bill: $266.8 million. Bloomberg reported last August that there were 3,300 health care lobbyists working Congress – six lobbyists for each of the 535 House and Senate lawmakers.

This Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showing Senator Evan Bayh leading former Senator Dan Coats 55%-35% has caused quite a dustup in the blogosphere. It's certainly not good news for Coats, but I don't think it is quite as bad as it seems. If you look at the internals, it shows the Indiana electorate at 36% Democrat, 41% Republican, and 23% Independent. This turnout model therefore assumes that turnout is identical to the 2008 electorate.

But the 2010 electorate almost certainly won't look like the 2008 electorate -- in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races Democrats ran well behind their 2008 turnout -- 6 poiints in Virginia and 3 points in New Jersey. We can probably assume the same is true in Massachusetts as well (or else that Coakley really, really, really lost Independents).

The Virginia and New Jersey turnout looked a lot more like the 2004 electorate. If we assume that the 2010 Indiana electorate will be similar to its 2004 electorate (and this is probably a safe assumption in Indiana), we end up with a 46%R-32%D-22%I split. Applying the same percentages found in the Kos poll (do we really think Bayh is getting 26% of Republican support after voting for the health care bill?), we get a 52%-38% lead for Bayh. Not great news for Coats, but significantly better than a 20-point deficit.

Making similar changes also translates to a 51%-40% lead over former Rep. Hostettler, which is still quite a bit better than the 44%-41% Bayh lead that Rasmussen found (though the message might be that undecideds are leaning Bayh, which wouldn't surprise me at this point).

Fully 62% of Americans say they are “angry” about the bank bonuses. Other subjects of public disgust: 48% say banking bailout, 39% say partisan gridlock and 37% say the budget deficit, according to a new Pew Research Center poll.

Bank anger transcends partisanship. Among those who say financial executives record bonuses make them angry: 72% of Democrats, 61% of independents and 57% of Republicans.

The backdrop is, of course, Wall Street's banner year and Main Street's ongoing recession. Taxpayers bailout led to the banks' record profits and record bonuses. That's why nearly half the nation remains angry over the bailout. They funded one bailout but their bailout never came.

This is also why a clear majority, 55%, still say the economy is the most important issue facing the nation – unemployment (31%) and economy generally (24%). By comparison, 13% cite healthcare and 11% cite the budget deficit.

For more on the Pew poll, click here.

A new University of Texas poll shows Gov. Rick Perry (R) with a commanding lead in the Republican gubernatorial primary, though just shy of the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) narrowly leads Debra Medina (R) for second place, though the poll was conducted before "truther-gate."

Republican Primary Matchup (366 LVs, 2/1-7, MoE +/- 5.1%)
Perry 45
Hutchison 21
Medina 19
Und 16

Former Houston Mayor Bill White leads businessman Farouk Shami 50-11 percent in the Democratic primary, with 30 percent undecided.

General Election Matchups (800 RVs, MoE +/- 3.5%)
Perry 44 -- White 35 -- Und 12
Hutchison 43 -- White 34 -- Und 14
Medina 36 -- White 36 -- Und 21

The survey also tests a potential special election for the U.S. Senate if Hutchison were to resign. The matchup assumes a wide-open field with six Republicans and just one Democrat. Not surprisingly, that Democrat -- former Comptroller John Sharp -- leads with 29 percent. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst places second with 15 percent.

One day after Debra Medina's "9/11 Truther moment" on Glenn Beck's radio program almost certainly stopped her surging candidacy dead in its tracks, the Austin American-Statesman carries a long profile of her that ends with the following quote from an old family friend: "She has always had her facts down."

Or not.