In a surprise appearance at CPAC today, Dick Cheney gave a brief speech in which he said he thought 2010 was going to be a "phenomenal year for the conservative cause," adding to huge applause from the crowd, "and I think Barack Obama is a one term president." Video here.

North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) is still polling below 50% with a job approval rating of 35%, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey, but he continues to lead his potential Democratic challengers by double digits. A quarter of voters remained undecided.

Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and attorney Kenneth Lewis still suffer from a name ID disadvantage, with at least seven-in-10 voters holding no opinion of them. The Democratic primary will be held May 4.

Burr 43 - Marshall 33 - Und 23

Burr 44 - Cunningham 32 - Und 24

Burr 44 - Lewis 31 - Und 25

Click through to see other polling results for Burr against Marshall, Cunningham and Lewis.

The survey was conducted Feb. 12-15 of 788 RV with a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

Rasmussen has the latest numbers out of Indiana. The two most likely Democratic replacements for Evan Bayh - Baron Hill and Brad Ellsworth -  trail all three potential GOP hopefuls.

Hill trails former Congressman John Hostettler by 18, he trails former Senator Dan Coats by 16, and, most tellingly, he trails largely unknown freshman state Senator Marlin Stutzman by 8.

Ellsworth fares equally as bad, trailing Hostettler by 19, Coats by 14, and Stutzman by 10.

Hostettler (R) 49
Hill (D) 31

Hostettler (R) 46
Ellsworth (D) 27

Coats (R) 48
Hill (D) 32

Coats (R) 46
Ellsworth (D) 32

Stutzman (R) 41
Hill (D) 33

Stutzman (R) 40
Ellsworth (D) 30

The survey was conducted February 16-17 among 500 likely Indiana voters.

Michael Riley of the Denver Post has a must-read piece today about the reversal of the political landscape in the West over the last 18 months. After a series of recent elections where Democrats were ascendant - capped off by the 2008 DNC in Denver followed by Obama winning Colorado by a whopping 9 points in November - the Democrats' fortunes in the Mountain West have been heading, well, south:

President Obama arrives in Colorado today with approval ratings in the state lower than his national average. Early polls suggest Reid's re-election bid may be the biggest loss for the party since the unseating of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004. Ritter, lagging badly in polls and saying he needed to dedicate more time to his family, isn't running for a second term.

"Colorado led on one end, and now it looks like it will be leading on the other," said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races across the country for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

She pointed out that both top-line races in the state — for governor and U.S. Senate — are at best toss-ups.

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, a beneficiary of Obama's fundraising stop today, trails Republicans in most statewide polls. Reid, for whom Obama will appear Friday at a Nevada fundraiser, also lags behind his top Republican opponents in surveys there.

The permanence of the Western strategy for the Democrats "may have been a myth," Duffy said.

The Democrats' Western strategy grew out of "The Emerging Democratic Majority" these of John Judis and Ruy Teixeira.  The idea was for Democrats to take advantage of the favorable demographics of the region by targeting voters with an appealing message. It worked: Democrats made gains in the Mountain West in recent cycles. Here is how one successful Democratic politician from the West described the party's winning message:

"For the [Democratic] party, it means a new, or a renewed, emphasis on issues predominating in the interior West. Part of that is people want a good quality of life, do not want government to dictate to them how they live their lives. They want good government but not big government. They're looking for pragmatic folks who produce results."

Here's the irony as well as the problem: that quote came from Janet Napolitano in 2007.  Ken Salazar is another example of a Western Democrat who was successful in casting the values of his party in the kind of moderate, libertarian-tinged messaging that resonates with voters in the West.

Yet Napolitano and Salazar are now members of an administration pushing exactly the kind of big government agenda that Napolitano warned against - and the results in the West (and elsewhere) are exactly what you'd expect.

A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research survey conducted for Alexi Giannoulias' Senate campaign shows the Illinois treasurer leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) two weeks after both won their parties nominations.

General Election Matchup (600 LVs, 2/9-14, MoE +/- 4%)
Giannoulias (D) 49 (+3 vs. last poll, 10/25-28)
Kirk (R) 45 (+2)

A polling memo for the campaign says that Giannoulias leads 51-45 among voters who could identify both candidates, showing that his lead "is not built on a name identification advantage." He also leads by 24 points among "moderates."

Democrats are viewed more favorably in the state than Republicans, and President Obama has a 59 percent favorable rating.

One name that hasn't popped up on anyone's vulnerability charts is Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon. This is somewhat surprising. Even though Oregon hasn't voted for a Republican in a Presidential race since 1984, it is actually something of a swing state. Its PVIs in the last four Presidential elections have been .04R, .03R, -3.3D, and -4.7D. This places it to the right of states like Illinois, Delaware, California, and Connecticut, where the GOP is widely viewed as having at least some shot at a pickup, and just to the left of states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, where its chances in Senate races range from very, very good, to competitive.

Leave it to Rasmussen Reports to dig in and fill a gap in the polling record. The latest poll there shows Senator Ron Wyden leading law professor Jim Huffman 49%-35%. It's fairly surprising to see Wyden below 50% against an absolute no-name (unfortunately, Rasmussen did not poll fitness instructor and declared candidate Pavel Goberman). The problem for the GOP here is the same problem it is having in many swing states. After being hammered in two successive elections, many of its high-quality challengers have lost, leaving it with a weak bench in these states. The atmosphere is bad enough for the Democrats that it doesn't seem to matter all that much, but if the Republicans had better candidates with statewide recognition in swing states right now, the Democrats could well be heading for a total wipe out.

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said yesterday she will not run for governor, ending months of speculation and clearing the Democratic primary field for Attorney General Jerry Brown.

From the San Francisco Chronicle:

Feinstein, the 76-year-old former San Francisco mayor who is one of the state's most popular politicians, called Brown Tuesday morning to tell him she would not be running, her spokesman Gil Duran confirmed.

"She is a trusted friend and close adviser to the attorney general," Brown spokesman Scott Glazer said. "He looks forward to working with her on the huge challenges facing California."

Pressed for months to decide whether she would jump into the race, Feinstein said she wouldn't unless other candidates failed to address California's chronic budget problems.

Feinstein, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, was the Democratic nominee for governor in 1990 but lost to Republican Pete Wilson.

A Rasmussen poll out yesterday found Feinstein and Brown performing about the same against Republicans Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner.

Massachusetts Senate it's not, and local races often turn on local issues. But two special elections worth noting tonight.

In New Hampshire, Republican state Rep. David Boutin defeated Democrat state Rep. Jeff Goley to win a special election for the state Senate. The seat had belonged to Ted Gatsas (R), who resigned to become mayor of Manchester last month. Democrats still hold a 14-10 edge in the upper chamber. State GOP chair John Sununu called the win a message to the arrogant tax-and-spend Democrats in Concord that New Hampshire voters are fed up with their failed leadership and reckless fiscal agenda." Democratic chair Ray Buckley dismissed the result, saying the seat "has been held by a Republican for as long as anyone can remember."

In Alabama, Republicans picked up a Democratic-held seat in the state House. Funeral home owner K.L. Brown (R) defeated teacher Ricky Haley (D) by nearly 14 points, giving Republicans 45 seats compared to the Democrats' 60. The seat opened because of the death of the Democratic incumbent. Alabama GOP chair Mike Hubbard said in a statement that 45 seats is the most the GOP has held in 136 years. Republicans are mounting a major effort to take control of the state House this fall.

An eye-opening result from the new CNN/Opinion Research survey:

6. Do you think Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or not?

All Americans
Yes: 44%
No: 52%

Registered Voters
Yes: 44%
No: 52%

President Obama's job rating is slightly better, though still in negative territory. Forty-nine percent approve of the job he's doing while 50% disapprove.  Overall, President Obama's job rating in the RealClearPolitics Average is 47.8% approve, 45.9% disapprove.

The reelect numbers for members of both parties in Congress are slightly worse (41% yes, 56% no for Dems and GOP among registered voters), and the GOP leads the Democrats by 2 points in the generic congressional ballot, 48 to 46. Overall, Republicans lead by 1.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics Averge for the generic ballot, 45.2 to 43.7.

Former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman (R) has pulled even once again with California Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) in a new Rasmussen poll (Feb. 15, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%). Brown led by 4 points last month, and the two were tied in November.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) fares just 2 points better than Brown against Whitman, while both lead State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R) by 12 points. Feinstein, however, has yet to indicate serious interest in the race.

Brown 43 - Whitman 43 - Und 8

Brown 46 - Poizner 34 - Und 13

Feinstein 45 - Whitman 43 - Und 9

Feinstein 48 - Poizner 36 - Und 11