New York Gov. David Paterson officially entered the gubernatorial race over the weekend, running for a full term for the office he took following Eliot Spitzer's resignation. However, Paterson's numbers for the Democratic nomination and in the general election are dreadful, and his job performance ratings are back on the decline, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll (Feb. 14-19, 805 RV, MoE +/- 3.5%).

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) still hasn't announced his candidacy, while Republican Rick Lazio is working hard to shore up Republican support and criticizing Cuomo for still not announcing his plans.

Dem Primary
Paterson 22
Cuomo 64
Und 14

Cuomo leads by 41.2 points in the RCP Average

General Election
Cuomo 63 - Lazio 26

Paterson 39 - Lazio 46

In the Senate race, in which Republicans still have no top candidate, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leads possible Democratic primary challenger Harold Ford Jr. by a huge margin. However, she continues to trail former Gov. George Pataki (R) by 6 points -- though that margin decreased 7 points from last month.

Dem Primary
Gillibrand 42
Ford 16
Tasini 4
Und 38

General Election
Gillibrand 41 - Pataki 47

Gillibrand 51 - Blakeman 24

Gillibrand 49 - Zuckerman 29

Ford 34 - Pataki 48

Ford 41 - Blakeman 23

Ford 40 - Zuckerman 26

Former House Speaker Marco Rubio now has a whopping 18-point lead over Gov. Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate primary, a new Rasmussen poll (442 LVs, 2/18, MoE +/- 5%) shows.

Primary Election Matchup
Rubio 54 (+5 vs. last poll, 1/27)
Crist 36 (-1)
Und 7 (-4)

The numbers come as Rubio is coming off a well-received appearance before a national audience of conservative activists, while Crist is attempting to step up his efforts against him. Crist now has a net-negative job approval rating among the Republicans surveyed, with 48 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving. He's also viewed unfavorably by 44 percent, favorably by 54 percent. Rubio's fav/unfav split is 67 / 15.

Rubio now leads by 11.6 in the RCP Average.

The primary is August 24. Rasmussen says that both Crist and Rubio "have large leads over likely Democratic nominee, Congressman Kendrick Meek." Those numbers will be out tomorrow.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul (R) has won the 2012 presidential primary straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference this weekend, a somewhat surprising result that reflects a concerted effort among his supporters to influence the vote. Here are the final results:

Paul 31
Romney 22
Palin 7
Pawlenty 6
Pence 5
Gingrich 4
Huckabee 4
Daniels 2
Santorum 2
Thune 2
Barbour 1
Other 5
Und 6

The result was a surprise to the crowd gathered here Saturday night. When Paul was announced as the winner, many booed. Romney's second-place showing drew a loud cheer.

The Campaign For Liberty, an offshoot of Paul's 2008 presidential campaign, has been a visible presence all weekend at the conference. Before the results were announced, a CPAC staffer emphasized that there was no official promotion of the vote (though some speakers mentioned it). And fewer than 25 percent of those who attended the event actually voted. Last year, about 1,700 cast ballots.

Mitt Romney won the 2009 straw poll with 20 percent of the vote. Paul finished third last year with 13 percent.

Some other findings from the survey:
-- 54 percent of those who voted were age 18-25. The next-largest block was 26-40 year olds, at 19 percent
-- 53 percent say they wish the GOP had a better field of candidates, while 46 percent In total, 2,395 ballots were cast all day Thursday and part of the day Friday. Nearly half of the participants were students.
-- 62 percent approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing, while 37 percent disapprove. Only 2 percent approve of President Obama's job performance.
-- Sen. Jim DeMint has the highest favorable rating (73 percent), followed by Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh (70 percent). The GOP's Congressional leadership is in the 50s (Boehner 56, McConnell 51). RNC Chair Michael Steele has a net-negative favorable rating (42/44).
-- Reducing the size of the federal government is identified as the top concern of voters, followed by reducing government spending, the war on terrorism, and lowering taxes.
-- 33 percent think the GOP will gain 40 or more seats in Congress and retake control of the House. 24 percent think they'll win 20-29 seats, while 20 percent think they'll win 30-39 percent.

You can see the full breakdown here.

A final note: the sense that Paul supporters flooded the vote will lead other Republican presidential water-testers to easily discount the results. A straw poll that will be conducted at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference this April in New Orleans will be taken much more seriously among those involved with and eagerly watching the presidential sweepstakes.

Republican Whip Eric Cantor just released the following statement, which his office says was offered "in light of the Senator Reid's support for changing the rules in the middle of the game by using reconciliation to jam through a health care bill (including the public option) that the American people have already rejected multiple times." Cantor's statement reads:

“If the President is sincere about moving forward in a bipartisan fashion, he must take the reconciliation process – which will be used jam through legislation that a majority of Americans do not want – off the table. By using the reconciliation process, the Administration and Democrat leaders are sending a clear signal that they still refuse to listen to the American people and have no interest in bipartisanship. To be certain, by using the reconciliation process, the Administration makes clear that their promise of bipartisanship is dead.

“If the President's intention for the health care summit is to finally show that he is ready to listen and work in a bipartisan way to produce incremental reforms that the American people support, he is off to a rocky start. The health care bills that the Obama Administration has apparently combined to form a new plan - unfortunately again behind closed doors - have not only been rejected by the American people and Republicans, but by Democrats on Capitol Hill who have spent that past year arguing amongst themselves over them. I urge President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and Leader Reid to stop trying to subvert the will of the American people and finally start listening to them.”

The Senate campaign for Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) announced today that he has agreed to debate primary opponent Marco Rubio on two Sunday morning TV shows next month. The two would debate March 7 on NBC's "Meet the Press" and March 28 on "FOX News Sunday."

"Governor Crist looks forward to participating in an open and honest discussion with Speaker Rubio about issues that directly affect Florida voters,” said Crist spokeswoman Andrea Saul. “These debates will give Floridians the chance to learn more about the candidates' actual records, and to see for themselves that Governor Crist is the clear choice when it comes to sending a Senator to Washington who will stand behind the principles of less government, less taxes, and more personal freedom.”

Rubio has already agreed to the FOX debate.

UPDATE: The Rubio campaign has responded. Having already accepted the FOX debate, Rubio's spokesman Alex Burgos says Rubio will also debate Crist on "Meet the Press," but not until after the FOX-sponsored event.

"FOX Network has shown serious interest in this primary campaign since day one and was the first national news organization to extend an invitation for a debate," said Burgos. "Marco Rubio gladly accepted immediately and will be happy to debate Charlie Crist on Meet the Press or anywhere else after he has kept his commitment to have the first debate on FOX on March 28."

In 2008, Rep. Rob Andrews (D) challenged New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) in a primary, making an issue of the incumbent's age and saying the state needed new energy in that post. Today's news that Lautenberg has been diagnosed with stomach cancer may now give Democrats more reason to be concerned about the potential loss of another seat this year.

Before going further, it should be emphasized that doctors say Lautenberg "should make a 'full and complete recovery,'" after chemotherapy treatments, according to the Associated Press. But Lautenberg's advanced age, and the election last fall of Republican Chris Christie as governor, had already been of concern to state Democrats.

After Christie's election but before his inauguration, some lawmakers attempted to move legislation that would change the Garden State's succession laws, removing the governor's appointment power. According to the Congressional Research Service, New Jersey law currently empowers the governor "to call a discretionary 'quick special election,' depending on the amount of time remaining in the unexpired senatorial term, while also empowering [the governor] to make interim appointments."

Because Lautenberg was re-elected in 2008, his term is not due to expire until 2014. It's not yet clear how soon Christie would have to call a special election, if at all, but it is clear that he would be able to appoint a Republican should the seat become vacant.

The state has been reliably Democratic in federal elections, and no Republican has been elected to the Senate there since Clifford Chase in 1972. But the 2009 election in the state shows the political environment could be favorable to Republicans, and the party might have a chance in a November 2010 special election.

UPDATE: Christie issued this statement today:

“As he's proven through the years, Senator Lautenberg is a tenacious fighter,” said Governor Chris Christie. “I wish him the best for a speedy recovery and a successful fight against his illness so he can get back to doing what he loves most, helping New Jersey and its people.

So reports Chris Cillizza:

Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth has decided to seek the seat being vacated by Sen. Evan Bayh and will announce his intentions in a statement to be released shortly, according to a source briefed on the matter.

Ellsworth emerged as the favored candidate of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the White House in the immediate aftermath of Bayh's stunning decision that he would not seek a third term.

When confirmed, Ellsworth's decision will free up the Bloody Eighth for a potential Republican takeover in November.

SurveyUSA is out with job approval ratings for President Obama and Senate Democrats in a trio of West Coast states: Washington, Oregon, and California. One Democratic Senator from each state is standing for reelection this November, and the numbers demonstrate the kind of political headwind they're facing this year.

Washington State Senator Patty Murray appears to be the most vulnerable of the bunch, with an upside-down approval rating of 43/50.  Recent polling shows Murray losing narrowly to Republican Dino Rossi in a hypothetical match up, but Rossi hasn't declared yet. Also of concern, President Obama's job approval rating is under fifty and just barely net positive at 49/47 and Maria Cantwell's job rating is just 46/45.

Barbara Boxer is also showing serious signs of weakness. SurveyUSA pegs her job approval at just 47%, with 43% disapproving.  The good news for Boxer is that she leads her three most likely Republican challengers (Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, and Chuck DeVore) by an average of 6-10 in the polls. The bad news is that she's at or under 50% in every poll except one. Dianne Feinstein's job approval is 50/42 while President Obama's remains a more healthy 59/38.

Lastly, Ron Wyden of Oregon looks to be the most secure of the bunch, though his job approval rating is right at 50%. The other day Sean pointed out that the most recent Rasmussen poll shows him with a 14-point lead over law professor Jim Huffman but added that it was, "surprising to see Wyden below 50% against an absolute no-name." His colleague, Jeff Merkely's job approval rating is just 43% and President Obama's is 53%.

"I think we should take a page out of her playbook, and grab a 9-iron and smash the window out of big government." -  Tim Pawlenty at CPAC, talking about learning something from Tiger's wife.

Brendan Nyhan notes the CNN poll showing that a majority of voters don't think that Obama deserves to be re-elected and writes:

For context, a Fox News poll in August 2001 asked the following question about George W. Bush:

Considering how President (George W.) Bush has performed so far, do you think he deserves to be reelected or would the country probably be better off with someone else as president?

The results? 36% said Bush deserved to be reelected, 42% said the country would be better off with someone else, and 22% said it depends or weren't sure. These numbers are actually worse than Obama's relative to the 55% approval/32% disapproval numbers the Fox poll showed for Bush.

The implication some are drawing from this (and to be fair, it isn't clear if Nyhan meant this) is "hey look, Bush had similar numbers early on, and we know how that turned out!" Well, yes. But it is also worth noting that the poll was taken right before 9-11, when Bush's Presidency was starting to really sag under the weight of the recession. Absent 9-11 and Iraq, there's a real chance that 2004 would have looked different; 2002 certainly would have.

But there's another point here, and it is tied in with Nyhan's explicit point: The gap between Bush's "elect another" and his disapproval is much greater than Obama's. It's really unsurprising that, even with a 32% disapproval, 42% wanted someone else as POTUS. Some 40% of the country is always going to want to see a member of the other party as the President, even if they generally approve of the job the President is doing. This is one reason that I'm skeptical of statistical modeling on these elections -- the variables are almost certainly non-linear, and the models only work because these variables generally trade in a narrow range.

Finally, I think the reason this is noteworthy is precisely because Bush's election was so different than Obama's. No one, except perhaps Karl Rove, mistook 2000 as a potentially re-aligning election. For Obama to have fallen from a President whose dominant narrative was that he was a transformational figure to being one who really might be a one-termer, in less than a year, is pretty stunning.