Apropos Jeremy Lott's piece today about the victories libertarians have been quietly racking up in recent months, in a 4 to 1 decision the Colorado Supreme Court struck down a  voter-approved measure restricting holders of no-bid government contracts from making campaign contributions. The Court held that the provision was "so incomplete or riddled with omissions that it cannot be salvag(ed)."

A new survey of voters in Ohio by Quinnpiac University shows Democratic Governor Ted Strickland rebounding to a 5-point lead over Republican challenger John Kasich. The two were tied at 40 percent each in the last Quinnpiac poll taken in mid-November.

Strickland (D) 44 (+4 vs. last poll Nov 11)
Kasich (R) 39 (-1)
Undecided 15 (-3)

Meanwhile, President Obama continues his slide in Ohio, with his job rating falling to a new low of 44/52 driven by a continued erosion among Independents. In November, President Obama's job approval/disapproval with Independents was a slightly net negative 45 approve/49 disapprove. In the current poll only 38% of Independents approve of the job he's doing while 57% disapprove.

Dissatisfaction with Obama is driven by the usual suspects: only 39% of Ohio voters approve of the way he's handling the economy and even less, just 34%, approve of the way he's handling health care.

Diving deeper into health care, only 56% "mostly disapprove" of "the proposed changes to the health care system under consideration in Congress" - including 61% of Independents. Forty-three percent say Democrats' proposals "go too far" while 29% say the proposed changes "do not go far enough." Among Independents those numbers are 47% and 29% respectively. Lastly, even though a majority of Ohio voters disapproves of the current plans and a plurality says they go too far, 53% say President Obama should not give up on health care altogether.

Krugman writes:

And the deficit came. True, more than half of this year's budget deficit is the result of the Great Recession, which has both depressed revenues and required a temporary surge in spending to contain the damage. But even when the crisis is over, the budget will remain deeply in the red, largely as a result of Bush-era tax cuts (and Bush-era unfunded wars). And the combination of an aging population and rising medical costs will, unless something is done, lead to explosive debt growth after 2020.

So many things wrong with this paragraph. The reference to the "temporary surge" in spending is the first error. Here, you can check the summary tables of the President's latest budget proposal. In 2009, fiscal outlays are estimated at $3.5 trillion. In 2010 they are $3.7 trillion. In 2011 they are $3.8 trillion. And so they go, until 2020, when they are $5.7 trillion. There's a slight dip in 2012 to $3.7 trillion, but the fact that Obama's spending never drops below 2010 levels, and drops below 2011 levels only once, gives the lie to the argument that the spending surge is "temporary."

Let's also be clear that an awful lot of this spending is Obama's spending, not Bush's. The summary tables for Bush's last budget (FY09) can be found here. Bush wasn't doing ten-year budgeting, but his outlays for 2011 were $3.1 trillion, for 2012 were $3.2 trillion and for 2013 were $3.3 trillion. That represents a $700 billion, $600 billion, and $600 billion increase over the baseline for spending that President Bush was anticipating. Even generously allocating $200 billion for putting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan back in the budget (where they should have been in the first place) and $200 billion for increased interest on the debt from 2008 and 2009 for TARP/stimuli, that's a pretty significant delta in the final Bush baseline and the initial Obama baseline, and it occurs well after the "temporary surge" in spending has supposedly wound down. And while Obama can argue that spending declines from 25.4% of GDP in 2010 to 22.8% of GDP in 2013 (before beginning an inexorable rise), that is still substantially higher than the 18.6% peak that President Bush foresaw.

Furthermore, and this bears repeating again and again -- the Bush tax cuts expire in 2010. After that, they have zero impact on the budget, except for the interest on the debt that they created. After that, those cuts that survive are Obama's tax cuts, something for which I imagine he will gladly take credit. Obama campaigned on maintaining the Bush tax cuts for a very large chunk of the country -- including plenty of affluent taxpayers -- and moreover campaigned on cutting them even further (95% of taxpayers will receive a tax cut).

You won't count me among those who would defend Bush's overall approach to fiscal policies; individually many of them are defensible, but taken together they were a needless debacle. But let's be honest here, Obama is proposing massive budget increases that will significantly increase the yearly budget deficit – and they have nothing to do with George W. Bush.

Newly minted Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown released the following statement on the jobs bill:

“I came to Washington to be an independent voice, to put politics aside, and to do everything in my power to help create jobs for Massachusetts families. This Senate jobs bill is not perfect. I wish the tax cuts were deeper and broader, but I voted for it because it contains measures that will help put people back to work.

“I was disappointed with the continuation of politics-as-usual in the drafting of this bill, as it was crafted behind closed doors, without transparency and accountability.  I hope for improvements in that process going forward. All of us, Republicans and Democrats, have to work together to get our economy back on track. I hope my vote today is a strong step toward restoring bipartisanship in Washington."

The Minnesota Independent party is hot for Mike Bloomberg:

The party that made ex-wrestler Jesse Ventura governor of Minnesota wants to make Mayor Bloomberg President in 2012.

Jack Uldrich, chairman of the Minnesota Independence Party, has issued a formal call for the Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent mayor to "give serious consideration" to a White House run.

"The two-party system has catastrophically failed America," Uldrich said. "America needs a serious, credible independent to right our sinking ship and get it back on track to a prosperous future.

"There is no one better positioned than Mayor Bloomberg to accept the mantle of this immense challenge."

Why not sweeten the third party pot? Bloomberg-Bayh 2012.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hopes the health care summit this week and President Obama's proposal this morning can offer some kind of a bridge for Republicans to work with Democrats on passing reform.

"The President's health reform proposal brings together the best of the Senate bill and the best of the House bill in a fiscally responsible way," he said. "Senate Democrats want to work with Republicans in a constructive way to make health reform successful. This week's summit presents an opportunity to approach this process with a fresh perspective."

Reid also announced the Senate Democrats, along with himself, who will be attending the summit:

Assistant Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin
Democratic Conference Vice Chairman Charles Schumer
Democratic Conference Secretary Patty Murray
Senator Max Baucus, Senate Finance Committee Chairman
Senator Chris Dodd, Senate Banking Committee Chairman
Senator Tom Harkin, Senate HELP Committee Chairman
Senator Jay Rockefeller, Senate Finance Subcommittee on Health Care Chairman
Senator Kent Conrad, Senate Budget Committee Chairman

If you were smart enough to read RCP's list of GOP Dark Horses for 2012 three months ago, you'd know that despite his public statements ruling out a run, Mitch Daniels was sending some very mixed signals in private - which is why he landed at #2 on our list.

Today Dan Balz reports Daniels has 'reluctantly' agreed to leave the door open to a bid for the White House in 2012:

Add one more name to the list of possible 2012 Republican candidates for president: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.

Two months ago, in an interview in his state capitol office, Daniels said explicitly he was not interested in running for president and dismissed speculation that he might be a candidate. That has now changed. During an interview at the winter meeting of the National Governors Association here over the weekend, Daniels said he has now been persuaded to keep open the door to a possible candidacy.

Daniels said he has had a number of conversations in recent months -- "none initiated by me" -- where the question of a 2012 campaign came up. "Just to get them off my back, I agreed to a number of people that I will now stay open to the idea," he said.

Imagine that. Read the rest of RCP's list of 2012 Dark Horses here.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Sunday he and his fellow Republican senators would attend Thursday's White House health care summit but he hoped they would be able to start over on a new reform bill.

That hope was dashed today as the president released a framework for Thursday's discussion, which includes many of the aspects of the previously passed House and Senate bills. McConnell responded with a statement today calling the president's decision "disappointing."
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With the White House health care summit on Thursday and President Obama's release this morning of a framework reform proposal, House Democratic leaders stress this week will be simply a continuation of a transparent process of reforming the country's health care system.

Republicans would disagree with that sentiment and will go into Thursday's proceedings doubting the possibility of bipartisan progress, while many Democrats have reservations about Republicans' willingness to compromise anything.

Here are statements from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer...
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If there was any question how House Republicans would react to President Obama's own health care reform proposal he announced this morning, a press release from Minority Leader John Boehner made clear they don't much care for it:
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