The latest numbers from the Republican polling firm Moore Information indicate that, like Evan Bayh and Russ Feingold, Senator Patty Murray could be vulnerable if the GOP can find the right challenger.  Against two-time gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, Murray trails 45%-43%.

In 2006, Republicans tried desperately to get Rossi to challenge Maria Cantwell who, like Murray, consistently has tepid support in the Evergreen State.  Rossi declined these overtures, citing family concerns, and he didn't sound to thrilled about making the race in 2010.  Still, the larger question is whether Murray's weakness is only found against a top-tier candidate like Rossi, or whether it extends to second- and third-tier candidates, as is the case with Blanche Lincoln.

Last week Richard Cohen lamented the rise of the "flash candidate." His column was mostly focused on John Edwards, but included references to Sarah Palin, Scott Brown, and Barack Obama. Cohen concluded:

We have substituted the camera -- fame, celebrity -- for both achievement and the studied judgment of colleagues. The political machine, the organization, even the parties themselves are gone, severely atrophied or discredited as (ugh) mainstream. They once served as filters, admission committees, but they have been replaced by a sham familiarity -- fame at its most beguiling and dangerous. This was John Edwards. He's not a scandal. He's a lesson.

Ironically, Cohen went the entire column without mentioning the culpability of the media in enabling John Edwards' meteoric rise and also the media malpractice that let the Democrats come within a whisker of nominating someone whose behavior was so mind-numbingly reckless it would have destroyed their chances of winning the White House.

Tina Brown gets it:

The truly shaming revelation here is how—except for the hound dogs of the National Enquirer—the press and the political establishment were duped by a candidate who, even before the Rielle Hunter craziness, was a giant phony. It should be collectively blush-making for the press to remember the newsmagazine covers, the fawning TV sitdowns, the op-ed boostings Edwards garnered in the course of his years as a crowd-pleasing, “Kennedyesque” candidate who supposedly cared for the underdog and coined the “Two Americas” catchphrase. It turns out that the cocoon of John Edwards' megalomania was a third America all its own.

As Byron York points out, when it came to the Rielle Hunter mess, the media simply wasn't interested in telling the story. The excuse is that the ever scrupulous MSM didn't want to risk its reputation on tabloid fodder carried by the National Enquirer. (Never mind the New York Times printed a front page, anonymously sourced story during the height of the campaign alleging John McCain had an affair with a lobbyist).

The truth, however, is that it was really a matter of priorities. While big media outlets dispatched dozens of investigative reporters to Alaska within hours of Sarah Palin being announced as McCain's VP pick, apparently no one could spare a single reporter to go out and verify the easily verifiable blockbuster story about John Edwards.

Long before Hunter appeared on the scene there were plenty of signs that John Edwards was a complete phony driven more by megalomania than anything else who shouldn't have been let anywhere near the White House.  The political class, including reporters, were enthralled by Edwards' populist rhetoric even though they many knew it didn't come close to matching reality.

Brad Warthen, a columnist and editorial page editor at The State in South Carolina, recounted his observations of Edwards' phoniness in February '07.  And Bob Shrum knew Edwards was a phony for the better part of a decade, but waited until 2007 to reveal some disturbing anecdotes about Edwards, including this one from the '04 campaign when John Kerry was mulling over his VP options:

Kerry talked with several potential picks, including Gephardt and Edwards. He was comfortable after his conversations with Gephardt, but even queasier about Edwards after they met. Edwards had told Kerry he was going to share a story with him that he'd never told anyone else—that after his son Wade had been killed, he climbed onto the slab at the funeral home, laid there and hugged his body, and promised that he'd do all he could to make life better for people, to live up to Wade's ideals of service. Kerry was stunned, not moved, because, as he told me later, Edwards had recounted the same exact story to him, almost in the exact same words, a year or two before—and with the same preface, that he'd never shared the memory with anyone else. Kerry said he found it chilling, and he decided he couldn't pick Edwards unless he met with him again.

So Richard Cohen is right, there is a lesson to be learned from the meteoric rise and fall of John Edwards. It's that the media fell down on the job by not sufficiently scrutinizing Edwards on his way up and then fell down again by ignoring a story that could have done catastrophic damage to the Democratic party and to the country.

"Despite future spending freezes promised and commissions doesn't change the fact that by any measure this budget is insane."  - Republican Congressman Mike Pence

The three finalists for the 2012 Republican National Convention are Tampa, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City. My money is on Tampa.

On the heels PPP's dismal poll results for Blanche Lincoln this morning, Rasmussen offers up more evidence that the Democratic Senator from Arkansas is toast.

Lincoln can muster no better 36% against any of five possible Republican challengers, all of whom poll at 50+%:

Boozman (R) 54
Lincoln (D) 35

Baker (R) 52
Lincoln (D) 33

Hendren (R) 51
Lincoln (D) 35

Coleman (R) 50
Lincoln (D) 34

Cox (R) 50
Lincoln (D) 36

RCP's Sean Trende chimes in:

"Absent a massive shift in public opinion, this seat should join North Dakota and Delaware in the likely-to-safe Republican category.  It's tough to make a call like this with a well-funded incumbent in the seat (who also happens to chair the Senate Ag Committee), but I'm not sure I've ever seen an incumbent Senator with numbers like this who isn't facing some sort of major scandal.

The truly shocking thing from the PPP numbers is that even Governor Mike Beebe -- a very popular politician -- fares poorly against some tepid GOP opposition.  This tells me that the atmosphere in Arkansas is simply too toxic for Democrats to have much of a chance at holding this seat in November, absent some massive turnaround in public opinion."

This is a bit of a jaw-dropper: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) may be in far more trouble than seemed possible even a week ago, with a new Public Policy Polling survey (810 RVs, 1/29-31, MoE +/- 3.4%) showing that Rep. John Boozman (R) would enter the race with a huge advantage.

General Election Matchup
Boozman 56
Lincoln 33
Und 11

Another stunning stat, and a dangerous one for the incumbent: only 33 percent of voters think Lincoln should run for re-election. Her approval rating is at just 27 percent, while 62 percent disapprove.

PPP also tests some alternative matchups if Lincoln is not the Democratic nominee. Possible substitutions include Rep. Mike Ross, Gov. Mike Beebe, and retired Gen. Wesley Clark. Also tested is Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who is still considering a primary challenge. Only Beebe, who has a 59 percent approval rating and appears safe in his bid for re-election, comes close to winning a Senate matchup.

Other Matchups
Boozman 48 -- Ross 37 -- Und 15
Boozman 44 -- Beebe 43 -- Und 13
Boozman 51 -- Clark 36 -- Und 13
Boozman 53 -- Halter 30 -- Und 17

Baker 50 -- Lincoln 35 -- Und 15
Baker 39 -- Ross 39 -- Und 22
Beebe 46 -- Baker 38 -- Und 15
Baker 45 -- Clark 39 -- Und 16
Baker 45 -- Halter 34 -- Und 21

President Obama has a 38 percent approval rating, about 10 points ahead of both Lincoln and fellow Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor (29 percent).

Favorable Ratings
Boozman 32 / 25
Baker 9 / 16
Clark 29 / 29
Ross 32 / 25
Halter 21 / 29

New York Sen. Charles Schumer's approval rating dropped below 50% for the first time in a decade, a detail from a recent Marist poll that the New York Post points out this morning.

The share of voters who believe Schumer, the state's senior senator, is doing an "excellent" or "good" job is now 47 percent -- putting him below the magic measure of 50 percent, according to a Marist College Polling Institute survey released yesterday.

And his "fair" and "poor" ratings are 31 percent and 17 percent, respectively -- a combined 48 percent.

The last time his favorable number was below 50 percent was in April 2001, when it was 49 percent. He was at 39 percent in March 2000 -- a time when he was relatively new to office after his November 1998 election.

Schumer's numbers in Marist have generally been in the mid- to high- 50s for the past decade.

Schumer is helped this year by the presence of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who's running in a special election to keep her job. Gillibrand is seen as more vulnerable, but with the loss in Massachusetts every Democratic incumbent is watching their back.

Denise Ilitch, whose father owns the Little Caesars pizza franchise and Detroit's pro hockey and baseball teams, would be an instant frontrunner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Michigan should she seek the job, a new EPIC-MRA poll finds. But the same poll shows several established Republican candidates are strong early favorites to win back the office, with Attorney General Mike Cox the GOP frontrunner.

Democratic Primary Election Matchup
Ilitch 23
Peters 9
Dillon 8
Stupak 6
Bernero 6
Kildee 6
Other 4
Und 38

Republican Primary Election Matchup
Mike Cox 32
Hoekstra 25
Bouchard 16
Snyder 3
George 2
Und 22

General Election Matchups
Cox 50 -- Bernero 28
Cox 48 -- Ilitch 30
Cox 47 -- Dillon 30

Hoekstra 40 -- Dillon 32
Hoekstra 45 -- Bernero 27
Hoekstra 42 -- Ilitch 35

Democrats are scrambling for a candidate after Lt. Gov. John Cherry announced he was abandoning his bid. With the family fortune and a recognizable name, Ilitch has been approached by many and even met with White House officials to discuss a bid.

President Obama has just a 41 percent job approval rating among voters statewide, and 58 percent disapprove. Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), who is term-limited, has a 32 percent positive rating, while 68 percent rate her performance negatively. Each primary subsample was 400 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. The general election sample was 600 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio leads the former Senate frontrunner, Gov. Charlie Crist, in the competitive Republican primary race, according to a new Rasmussen poll. Support for Crist has fallen drastically in the past six months of Rasmussen primary polling, from 53% in August to 49% in October, 43% in December and now 37%.

Rubio 49 (+6 vs. last poll, Dec. 15)
Crist 37 (-6)
Und 11

Rubio leads by 1.6 points in the RCP Average.

Earlier today, Rasmussen released results from its general election polling, which found Rubio leading Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) by 17 points, and Crist leading Meek by 15 points.

New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand still holds a significant lead over former Tennessee congressman Harold Ford Jr. in a potential Democratic primary matchup, according to a new Marist survey (Jan. 25-27, 838 RV, MoE +/- 3.5%). The two leading Democrats poll much closer in NYC, where more than half of primary voters reside, while Gillibrand extends her lead Upstate.

Gillibrand 44
Ford 27
Tasini 4
Und 25

Despite being in office for more than a year after being appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's seat, nearly half (48%) of voters don't know enough about Gillibrand to hold an opinion of her. Two-thirds don't hold an opinion of Ford, who moved to New York after a failed 2006 Senate bid in Tennessee.

"Both Gillibrand and Ford lack strong political identities in New York. The fisticuffs between them are forcing each to depend on political goodwill they don't have," says Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "The number of Democrats who don't have an opinion of each has soared over the past two weeks."

In the general election, Gillibrand trails former governor George Pataki by 6 points and Ford trails by 17 points. Both Dems lead Republican Bruce Blakeman, who unlike Pataki is officially in the race.

Pataki 49 (+7 vs. last poll, Jan. 15)
Gillibrand 43 (-2)
Und 8

Pataki 52 (+10 vs. last poll, Jan. 15)
Ford 35 (-1)
Und 13