A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey finds Republican Kelly Ayotte as the most competitive opponent to Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.) in the New Hampshire Senate race. Ayotte leads the two-term congressman by 7 points, while Hodes leads Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and William Binnie each by 10 points.

Ayotte 46
Hodes 39
Und 11

Hodes 46
Lamontagne 36
Und 13

Hodes 45
Binnie 35
Und 15

Ayotte leads by 7.7 points in the RCP Average.

The survey was conducted Feb. 1-3 of 600 LV with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Our latest racial tempest has to do with NBC's black history month meal. For those who don't feel like clicking through, NBC served "Fried Chicken, Collard Greens w/ Smoked Turkey, White Rice/Black Eyed Peas, and Jalapeno Cornbread."

It seems like there were really three options for NBC here: (1) Don't serve a meal in honor of Black History Month at all; (2) Serve traditional soul food for Black History Month; or (3) Have a meal in honor of Black History month, but serve pasta or enchiladas, or something that clearly is not a stereotypical African American meal.

It seems like all of these options were losers for NBC, and it says a lot about how sad our racial discourse in this country is. If we want to stop being, in the words of our Attorney General, "a nation of cowards" on race, we have to stop making so many conversations about race no-win situations for the participants. In the meantime, hats off to NBC. At least the employees got something that is, in the words of the (African American) chef who planned the dinner, "just a good meal."

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to find himself behind in the polls as he seeks a fifth term representing Nevada in the Senate and perhaps another session of Congress as the Democratic leader. A new Rasmussen survey (Feb. 2, 500 LV, MoE +/- 4.5%) finds him trailing four potential GOP foes by as many as 8 points and garnering no more than 41% support.

Tested against Reid were: Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian, Sharon Angle and Brian Krolicki.

Lowden 45 - Reid 39 - Und 8

Tarkanian 47 - Reid 39 - Und 6

Angle 44 - Reid 40 - Und 8

Krolicki 44 - Reid 41 - Und 8

Lowden leads Reid by 8.8 points in the RCP Average, and Tarkanian leads by 8.7 points.

President Obama receives a 46% job approval rating in Nevada, with 54% disapproving. Meanwhile, 55% have an unfavorable view of Reid, including 46% very unfavorable.

Rasmussen's latest numbers in the Colorado Senate race (500 LVs, 2/2, MoE +/- 4.5%) show that appointed Sen. Michael Bennet might not be the Democrats' strongest candidate against former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, the early favorite on the GOP side. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) is running closer, but still behind Norton in some early matchups.

General Election Matchups
Norton 51 (+2 vs. last poll, 1/13)
Bennet 37 (unch)
Und 7 (-4)

Norton 45 (-2)
Romanoff 38 (+3)
Und 10

A troubling sign for Democrats in the state: both Romanoff and Bennet also trail lesser-known Republicans who are also running: state Sen. Tom Wiens and Weld County DA Ken Buck.

Wiens 42 -- Romanoff 40 -- Und 12
Wiens 45 -- Bennet 40 -- Und 9

Buck 45 -- Romanoff 39 -- Und 10
Buck 45 -- Bennet 41 -- Und 8

Favorable Ratings
Bennet 42 / 40
Romanoff 40 / 37

Buck 43 / 26
Norton 49 / 31
Wiens 35 / 30

More Coloradans disapprove of President Obama's job performance than approve: the split is 45 / 53. Bennet's campaign announced yesterday that Obama will attend a fundraiser for his campaign in two weeks.

Gov. Bill Ritter (D), who appointed Bennet and recently announced he would not seek a second term, has a 40 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval rating.

You can see more CO Sen polling here.

William Cohan names names.

Conservative investigative filmmaker James O'Keefe not a racist, left-wing columnist Max Blumenthal not very accurate or ethical.

The saga of the new duly elected Lieutenant Governor of Illinois continues. Of course, this sordid yet comic tale is Grade A stuff for columnists, and the always hilarious John Kass takes to it like a pig to slop.

Twenty thousands more jobs lost in January, but the unemployment rate dipped to 9.7%. Decembers job totals were revised downward from 85K jobs lost to 150K.

And it looks like things will get worse before they get better:

Some forecasts call for the jobless rate to reach nearly 11 percent by year's end, which would significantly dampen spending by consumers, a critical driver of growth. That has prompted concern that the economy could enter a period of extremely slow growth or even fall into another downturn.

“Businesses are still very cautious,” an economist for IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, said. “But the plus for jobs is the fact that the economy is growing and firms need to produce more output.”

Obviously, the prospect of double digit unemployment this fall would have significant negative political consequences for the Democrats.

After a couple months of 10% unemployment, Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning unemployment decreased to 9.7% in January.

National Journal's latest survey of political insiders finds operatives from both parties think Democrats will lose a significant number of House seats this year.

Of the Democratic insiders, 45 percent say Dems will lose between 20-29 seats in the 2010 midterm elections, with the average number 24 seats. The highest percentage of GOP insiders (42 percent) say Dems will lose between 30-39 seats, with an average of 33 seats.

Just 6 percent of Dem insiders think the GOP will win back the House, while 22 percent of the GOP insiders think that.

Click through for full results, and see the full story for comments from some of the insiders.
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